Chance Sea the Stars comes to BC?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Perhaps the reason also-rans from the QE II have been successful in the Mile because 8f was their best distance and that's why they came up short in England. Perhaps the same reasoning applies in some way to the Arc. They can handle 12f just fine and that's why the Turf is not a problem but the reason they can't win the Arc is because the Arc more demanding than the 12f would suggest and maybe if Arc winners were able to come over here for a 13-14f race, they'd dominate it.

Well, you also have horses like Conduit and Milan who won the St. Leger go on to do well in the Turf. Red Rocks placed in the St. Leger as well.

I think its more of the better Arc winners staying home, an indirect statement that the French race trumps the BC and it's alleged "World Thoroughbred Championship".

It's quite possible the Turf would have a different history of winners had Zarkava, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Sakhee, and Montjeu in his prime, showed up. But at the same time, we'd probably have gotten one or two more "Dancing Braves" in the process.

As for the Queen Elizabeth, I'm not sure that's necessarily the premier mile race in Europe. Most of the winners from previous years read like a who's who of Group 2 calibur horses. And in recent years, as you said, most that have come over have tried the Classic.

In addition, it seems to me that the Queen Elizabeth II is a sort of "graveyard of favorites" if you will. Giant's Causeway, Miesque, Hawk Wing, among others tasted defeat in the race. At one point, even Raven's Pass win over Henrythenavigator was considered an upset.

Meanwhile, the top French mile, the Prix du Moulin, has produced 5 BC Mile winners.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Well, you also have horses like Conduit and Milan who won the St. Leger go on to do well in the Turf. Red Rocks placed in the St. Leger as well.

I think its more of the better Arc winners staying home, an indirect statement that the French race trumps the BC and it's alleged "World Thoroughbred Championship".

It's quite possible the Turf would have a different history of winners had Zarkava, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Sakhee, and Montjeu in his prime, showed up. But at the same time, we'd probably have gotten one or two more "Dancing Braves" in the process.

As for the Queen Elizabeth, I'm not sure that's necessarily the premier mile race in Europe. Most of the winners from previous years read like a who's who of Group 2 calibur horses. And in recent years, as you said, most that have come over have tried the Classic.

In addition, it seems to me that the Queen Elizabeth II is a sort of "graveyard of favorites" if you will. Giant's Causeway, Miesque, Hawk Wing, among others tasted defeat in the race. At one point, even Raven's Pass win over Henrythenavigator was considered an upset.

Meanwhile, the top French mile, the Prix du Moulin, has produced 5 BC Mile winners.

I feel quite sure that you are right that had Zarkava come over and if Sea the Stars came, those are the kinds of horses that would overcome any disadvantages because they are just so good. It's just a weird thing as to why none have won. With the QE II, I think it's much clearer. The course at Ascot is demanding. Running 8f there is not like running it at other courses so it's more a test of stamina than your normal mile. I think that's why some of those really good horses you mentioned lost. They were true milers and were found wanting in the final stages of that race.

[Soaring Softly]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

One of the main problems figuring this problem out is that not very many horses have tried the double you're speaking of.

Only 5 horses (Dancing Brave, Trempolino, Saumarez, Subotica, and Dylan Thomas) have attempted the feat. In addition, I'm pretty sure that Saumarez and Subotica were both upset winners of the Arc.

Meanwhile, 6 Arc also-rans have won the BC along with numerous placings.

Don't forget Sakhee. He won the Arc in 2001 and came back in that year's Classic to lose by a short nose. That makes 6, unless we're only talking specifically about horses attempting an Arc-Breeders Cup Turf double.

It's funny.....I remember in the days leading up to that eventful 2001 Breeders Cup, Godolphin was keeping it very close to the vest as to which race Fantastic Light and Sakhee would run. The only thing that everybody knew is that they wouldn't both run in the same race. The general consensus was that Sakhee would go in the Turf and Fantastic Light in the Classic. There was quite a lot of surprised people when final entries were drawn and it turned out to be just the opposite.

And they came just Tiznow's nose short of being exactly right!

[johnny pinwheel]

there was that horse in the mile, i forget his name but he was 4-5 and the horse of the ages at the time. he lost, blocked for a quarter mile. anyone thats watched the BC for more than a year or two realizes that there are no cinches that day. "this horse can't lose", usualy means look around at the others.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

there was that horse in the mile, i forget his name but he was 4-5 and the horse of the ages at the time. he lost, blocked for a quarter mile. anyone thats watched the BC for more than a year or two realizes that there are no cinches that day. "this horse can't lose", usualy means look around at the others.

rock of gibraltar maybe?

[brockguy]

Anyone know how is race horse insurance works???

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009...nce-retirement

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Anyone know how is race horse insurance works???

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009...nce-retirement

Not absolutely sure about details of the horse insurance business, but I seem to recall some thing where what Big Brown was insured for wasn't entirely going to cover what he was worth to IEAH as a prospective stallion they were trying to sell. Of course that might've just been Iavarone talking out of his y'know.

Here's something I found discussing his change in insurability from Derby to Preakness http://www.cnbc.com/id/24457479 which makes me wonder maybe it's not that Sea the Stars can't be insured, just that the insurance company might not being willing to raise coverage or raise it enough to warrant the risk for the owner. Insurance guys might figure he's maxed out.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Not absolutely sure about details of the horse insurance business, but I seem to recall some thing where what Big Brown was insured for wasn't entirely going to cover what he was worth to IEAH as a prospective stallion they were trying to sell. Of course that might've just been Iavarone talking out of his y'know.

Here's something I found discussing his change in insurability from Derby to Preakness http://www.cnbc.com/id/24457479 which makes me wonder maybe it's not that Sea the Stars can't be insured, just that the insurance company might not being willing to raise coverage or raise it enough to warrant the risk for the owner. Insurance guys might figure he's maxed out.

We cant take on too much risk. If we insure a horse for 30 mil and he dies, then the company is screwed. So we have to worry about our business and just cant take on any amount owners throw at us.

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.coral.co.uk/sbuk.go?page=...=20&sid=20&ms=

UK bookmakers have taken Sea the Stars off the board of the Classic

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.coral.co.uk/sbuk.go?page=...=20&sid=20&ms=

UK bookmakers have taken Sea the Stars off the board of the Classic

a dead giveaway that he won't be making the trip?

[brockguy]

2 interesting reads on Sea The Stars
from Nick Mordin
http://www.nickmordin.com/france.htm

One quote which I certainly agree with is "The connections of top horses need to be encouraged to risk defeat for their charges without the prospect of torpedoing their stud value. If we reserve our highest praise for those that are fortunate enough to establish a long unbeaten streak we're doing a disservice to the sport. We're forcing many of the best horses to be retired early for fear of breaking their winning sequence and losing millions in stud value."



and Racing Post Historian John Randall
http://www.racingpost.com/news/ajax_...018&ac=related

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brockguy

2 interesting reads on Sea The Stars
from Nick Mordin
http://www.nickmordin.com/france.htm

One quote which I certainly agree with is "The connections of top horses need to be encouraged to risk defeat for their charges without the prospect of torpedoing their stud value. If we reserve our highest praise for those that are fortunate enough to establish a long unbeaten streak we're doing a disservice to the sport. We're forcing many of the best horses to be retired early for fear of breaking their winning sequence and losing millions in stud value."



and Racing Post Historian John Randall
http://www.racingpost.com/news/ajax_...018&ac=related

Forget reading, is he coming or what?

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Scav

Forget reading, is he coming or what?

Probably not - thats my gut feeling.. One Irish legend will be there though , wish it was 2!!