My smoke and mirrors from wind rant

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Both the Wood Memorial card and Florida Derby day were run on days with reported extremely heavy wind.

And on both days .. you didn't exactly need to be a weather man to know which way the wind was blowing. A simple look at the extremely deceptive raw fractions throughout both cards would be all it would take.

Haskin on Dunkirk in the Bloodhorse yesterday:

but he still provided the single most memorable moment with the exception of I Want Revenge’s Wood Memorial. That was his :34 3/5 three-eighths run from the five-eighths pole to the quarter pole, in which he rattled off eighths in :11 3/5, :11 3/5, and :11 2/5.

If Dunkirk ran eights of 11 3/5, 11 3/5ths, and 11 2/5ths ... I assume that must mean that the hapless 88/1 longshot Stately Charchter ran eights of 11 3/5ths, 11 4/5ths, and 11 3/5ths.

Here is why I call Stately Charchter hapless ...




Doesn't exactly give good form now does he?


Here he is trailing Dunkirk by a little more than a length at the 5/8ths pole...





And here he is trailing Dunkirk by just a few at the quarter pole....




And if both Dunkirk and Stately Charchter ... with their heroic 34 and change far turn moves and all ... were both so disadvantaged by race dynamics and a speed biased race track ... how do you explain them both running double digit new career tops on Beyer figures?

All of the other horses in the race except Dunkirk and SC were up on the pace - and all of them went backwards on figures.

As for the smoke and mirrors with fractions on Wood Day...

The Wood Memorial featured a seemingly slow early pace with a half mile in 48.13 - but by comparison - older Grade 3 males ran a half in 50.69 at the same distance one race earlier. A pace a mere 15 lengths slower than the 3yo's in the Wood.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Both the Wood Memorial card and Florida Derby day were run on days with reported extremely heavy wind.

And on both days .. you didn't exactly need to be a weather man to know which way the wind was blowing. A simple look at the extremely deceptive raw fractions throughout both cards would be all it would take.

Haskin on Dunkirk in the Bloodhorse yesterday:

If Dunkirk ran eights of 11 3/5, 11 3/5ths, and 11 2/5ths ... I assume that must mean that the hapless 88/1 longshot Stately Charchter ran eights of 11 3/5ths, 11 4/5ths, and 11 3/5ths.

Here is why I call Stately Charchter hapless ...




Doesn't exactly give good form now does he?


Here he is trailing Dunkirk by a little more than a length at the 5/8ths pole...





And here he is trailing Dunkirk by just a few at the quarter pole....




And if both Dunkirk and Stately Charchter ... with their heroic 34 and change far turn moves and all ... were both so disadvantaged by race dynamics and a speed biased race track ... how do you explain them both running double digit new career tops on Beyer figures?

All of the other horses in the race except Dunkirk and SC were up on the pace - and all of them went backwards on figures.

As for the smoke and mirrors with fractions on Wood Day...

The Wood Memorial featured a seemingly slow early pace with a half mile in 48.13 - but by comparison - older Grade 3 males ran a half in 50.69 at the same distance one race earlier. A pace a mere 15 lengths slower than the 3yo's in the Wood.

drugs - tell me how many winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call on Florida Derby day at GP (all races on dirt only please)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

drugs - tell me how many winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call on Florida Derby day at GP (all races on dirt only please)

Frankly, considering the FL Derby was the only 2 turn race of the day, what's the difference?

• There was the 1 mile (one turn) MSW with Glitterman's Cartel and Nicanor hooking up 1-2 all the way...
  
• Vitruvius winning at 7f with Groomedforvictory and Motovato 2-3. ALL came from off or just the pace...
  
• The Swale where the two favorites were 1-2, 2-1 from the get go...
  
• And the 1m nightcap where Jacoby's Run took over after 3/8ths and held off three horses coming from off the pace.

March 28 Charts:
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...20090328&RN=99

[slotdirt]

Could it be that nobody came from off the pace not because of the track, but because the closers that day were just completely outclassed?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Could it be that nobody came from off the pace not because of the track, but because the closers that day were just completely outclassed?

Plenty of horses moved up from off the pace that day even in the one turn races.. Pletcher was so full of crap about the track that his eyes were brown.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Frankly, considering the FL Derby was the only 2 turn race of the day, what's the difference?

• There was the 1 mile (one turn) MSW with Glitterman's Cartel and Nicanor hooking up 1-2 all the way...
  
• Vitruvius winning at 7f with Groomedforvictory and Motovato 2-3. ALL came from off or just the pace...
  
• The Swale where the two favorites were 1-2, 2-1 from the get go...
  
• And the 1m nightcap where Jacoby's Run took over after 3/8ths and held off three horses coming from off the pace.

March 28 Charts:
http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...20090328&RN=99

steve - im at work , i can't pull up charts , i was just curious how many of the winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call of each dirt race that day - i think that is a better indication of how the track played than what Drugs posted

As for your bolded part above , isn't that part of the problem with GP. How do they only card one 2 turn race at that distance that day and call themselves a major race track (nyra did a better job on wood day imo).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - im at work , i can't pull up charts , i was just curious how many of the winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call of each dirt race that day - i think that is a better indication of how the track played than what Drugs posted

As for your bolded part above , isn't that part of the problem with GP. How do they only card one 2 turn race at that distance that day and call themselves a major race track (nyra did a better job on wood day imo).

since I don't feel like typing it for the 14th time
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...4&postcount=32

this has been beat to death.

[Thunder Gulch]

Outstanding work, Drugs...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - im at work , i can't pull up charts , i was just curious how many of the winners were 1st or 2nd at the first call of each dirt race that day - i think that is a better indication of how the track played than what Drugs posted

As for your bolded part above , isn't that part of the problem with GP. How do they only card one 2 turn race at that distance that day and call themselves a major race track (nyra did a better job on wood day imo).

A track can be kind to front end speed going two turns and less so in one turn affairs. Or the other way around. The track WAS NOT UNFAIR Florida Derby Day. Period.

Gulfstream can't run 8.5f races, so it may be tough to put a 9f race together for elsewhere on the card. AQU has the Excelsior to run Wood Day, so it works out great.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Outstanding work, Drugs...

The guy needs positive reinforcement all the time he was beaten as a child..Thx for understanding in advance..

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

A track can be kind to front end speed going two turns and less so in one turn affairs. Or the other way around. The track WAS NOT UNFAIR Florida Derby Day. Period.

Gulfstream can't run 8.5f races, so it may be tough to put a 9f race together for elsewhere on the card. AQU has the Excelsior to run Wood Day, so it works out great.

You have some nerve questioning Todd... You better be nice or he may not come on ATR's

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The guy needs positive reinforcement all the time he was beaten as a child..Thx for understanding in advance..

It happens to the best of us Freddy.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

A track can be kind to front end speed going two turns and less so in one turn affairs. Or the other way around. The track WAS NOT UNFAIR Florida Derby Day. Period.

Gulfstream can't run 8.5f races, so it may be tough to put a 9f race together for elsewhere on the card. AQU has the Excelsior to run Wood Day, so it works out great.

steve -i will look at the charts myslef tonight as i can't pull them up right now

but until Dunkirk flops no once can tell anyone for sure that the track wasn't speed biased that day and while i don't like that Todd complained on live national TV , he has every right to his opinion and his opinion might be right

for GP to only card 1 two turn race on it's biggest day of the year is simply a joke for a major racetrack

[philcski]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve -i will look at the charts myslef tonight as i can't pull them up right now

but until Dunkirk flops no once can tell anyone for sure that the track wasn't speed biased that day and while i don't like that Todd complained on live national TV , he has every right to his opinion and his opinion might be right

for GP to only card 1 two turn race on it's biggest day of the year is simply a joke for a major racetrack

(1) what Dunkirk does in his next start really doesn't have a huge relevance on what happened on Fl Derby day, considering it'll be in the biggest race of the year and a lot of other factors could affect the outcome. We should, obviously, track what happens to other runners that return from that card that could have possibly been hindered.

(2) i guess you haven't noticed how rare 9F+ dirt races are in general these days- while i'd love to see more, they have to write what they can fill, especially on their biggest day of the year.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by philcski

(1) what Dunkirk does in his next start really doesn't have a huge relevance on what happened on Fl Derby day, considering it'll be in the biggest race of the year and a lot of other factors could affect the outcome. We should, obviously, track what happens to other runners that return from that card that could have possibly been hindered.

(2) i guess you haven't noticed how rare 9F+ dirt races are in general these days- while i'd love to see more, they have to write what they can fill, especially on their biggest day of the year.

on point #2 , while they are hard to fill , doesn't the fact that the short run for to the 1st turn turn trainers off to running in these races at GP , surely something could be done with the configuartion of the track to fix this no?

[the_fat_man]

Steve

I have a PDF of the charts for the dirt races on FD day. It's too large to load. Any way to get around the max size?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm not exactly following DrugS (but, then again, what else is new?).

Simply, Dunkirk's :34 3/5 three-eighths run from the five-eighths pole to the quarter pole was far from the second most memorable moment in the Derby prep season.

He didn't exactly show much seperation from Stately Charchter in that segment and the naked fraction was greatly flattered by heavy wind and an exceptionally fast track.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Simply, Dunkirk's :34 3/5 three-eighths run from the five-eighths pole to the quarter pole was far from the second most memorable moment in the Derby prep season.

He didn't exactly show much seperation from Stately Charchter in that segment and the naked fraction was greatly flattered by heavy wind and an exceptionally fast track.

drugs all kidding aisde , i have been to GP , it's right near the ocean , the wind blows heavy almost every day there no?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Simply, Dunkirk's :34 3/5 three-eighths run from the five-eighths pole to the quarter pole was far from the second most memorable moment in the Derby prep season.

He didn't exactly show much seperation from Stately Charchter in that segment and the naked fraction was greatly flattered by heavy wind and an exceptionally fast track.

Why does that show something? He dropped SC when it mattered (and all but QR). Dunkirk went on and SC got WIPED OUT, with the rest of the field.

Surely, someone who watches as many races as you do has some sense of how HUGE Dunkirk's run was that day given the setup (and the way the track was playing).

And, you don't really take anything Haskins writes seriously, do you?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Steve

I have a PDF of the charts for the dirt races on FD day. It's too large to load. Any way to get around the max size?

Hmmm.. Maybe...

But while I believe DT enjoys many positives absent at a certain prominent other forum, I cannot claim the technical expertise of the proprietor of that particular monolith.

I'll see what I can do...