Musket Man part 2

[kgar311]

Ive seen gales thread about MM after the TB Derby and not too many were thrilled with this horse seeing how the filly outran him the same day. But man after the Illinois Derby how can the connections not be excited about the chance this horse has in the derby. His beyer wasnt off the board, hey it wasnt even triple figures, but I feel this horses running style fits the derby perfectly. The horse sits nicely mid pack makes three wide menacing moves and goes on with it strong in the lane.
After the race Coa was extremely confident that the horse could get the mile and a quarter and I think he can too.
I feel this horse who is 5 for 6 lifetime will get a decent chunk in the derby, any other thoughts?

[slotdirt]

I say again, the day a Yonaguska colt wins the Derby is the day American breeders should pack their bags and go home.

[gales0678]

if you believe in the #'s he is too slow , but the numbers have been wrong before and they can be again

that being said he continues to grow and get bigger and faster

derek is simply amazed with each step forward day by day , week by week

i will keep you guys posted as the derby draws near as to how the connections feel as i have a pretty good link into the barn

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by gales0678

if you believe in the #'s he is too slow , but the numbers have been wrong before and they can be again

Im giving him extra points for style. If this was a mile and an eight at Belmont in a 6 horse field with POTN, FF, IWR ect ect I wouldnt give him a shot. But this is the Derby, 20 horse field, anything can happen. If he's within 5-10 of the lead down the backside in the derby I feel he has a good shot.

[gales0678]

my guess is he will be a nice price come derby day , most lilkely higher than his pool 3 odds when all the so called experts like beyer , grennberg , etc etc basically probably tell you to throw him out

[sumitas]

As an aside, The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) is bred on a similar cross as Musket Man . Both mares are Mr Prospector line and the 2 sires are sons of Cherokee Run .

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by gales0678

my guess is he will be a nice price come derby day , most lilkely higher than his pool 3 odds when all the so called experts like beyer , grennberg , etc etc basically probably tell you to throw him out

25-1 in the third pool, if I can get higher than that in the Derby I would be extremely happy. Def. gonna wheel him back and forth in the exacta and use him alot in other exotics.

[brianwspencer]

I actually kind of like him now....and I didn't before Saturday.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by kgar311

25-1 in the third pool, if I can get higher than that in the Derby I would be extremely happy. Def. gonna wheel him back and forth in the exacta and use him alot in other exotics.

tell me why , he only ran a 98 beyer , how much more can he move up on derby day?

brian you too - tell me what you saw that makes you think differently

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I actually kind of like him now....and I didn't before Saturday.

Saturday put me over the top on this horse too. I just have that feeling the way this horse has been going he is primed for a huge race in the derby. If this horse gets it done I will be a wealthy man. Gale please keep us updated on this horses progress I am extremely interested.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Saturday put me over the top on this horse too. I just have that feeling the way this horse has been going he is primed for a huge race in the derby. If this horse gets it done I will be a wealthy man. Gale please keep us updated on this horses progress I am extremely interested.

i will let you guys know what i hear , the connections have to be pleased with how he has handled the 2 turns

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by gales0678

tell me why , he only ran a 98 beyer , how much more can he move up on derby day?

brian you too - tell me what you saw that makes you think differently

I was just impressed. I know that he's now handled more than one quirky surface, so you know he can carry his game with him. The way he finished, coming home in :12.2 makes me think that the extra furlong isn't going to be his undoing either.

I'm not saying he's my favorite horse heading into the Derby, but he's likely one I now wouldn't leave out on multi-race wagers. It's pretty tough to fault a horse who does so little wrong.

[gales0678]

i think steve had him on top for the TBD derby - mr byk what are your thoughts on the horse can he move forwrad eneough to win on the 1st saturday in may at this point ?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by gales0678

tell me why , he only ran a 98 beyer , how much more can he move up on derby day?

brian you too - tell me what you saw that makes you think differently

Well first of all they werent tearing it up on the front end 3/4s was in 13 and change and he still ended up sub 150 for the 1 1/8. Final 3f in 36.

I also dont think he had the best trip. Down the backside he wasnt clear on the outside, he was between horses with all type of dirt being kicked in his face. And with the slow pace in front of him it took Coa about 3 pumps and he had the leaders collared 3 wide at the head of the stretch. No other horse made a move like that in the race.

And finally if you watch the horse through the stretch I couldnt help but think if he was motoring like that in the stretch of the Derby aint nobody catching this horse.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by gales0678

i think steve had him on top for the TBD derby - mr byk what are your thoughts on the horse can he move forwrad eneough to win on the 1st saturday in may at this point ?

This is the second time youve asked Steve about this horse with no response. Somebody wake that guy up!

[gales0678]

Steve will answer i'm sure once he sees my post

He liked him in tampa and in ill - we'll see as he does a big time analysis of every derby horse so i'm sure we will get input from him at some point - there is plenty of time

if i hear anything from my man , ill be sure to post

let's just hope hammering hank , beyer and the rest of the so called experts say he is too slow and can't win , then the public won't jump on him come derby day

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Steve will answer i'm sure once he sees my post

He liked him in tampa and in ill - we'll see as he does a big time analysis of every derby horse so i'm sure we will get input from him at some point - there is plenty of time

if i hear anything from my man , ill be sure to post

let's just hope hammering hank , beyer and the rest of the so called experts say he is too slow and can't win , then the public won't jump on him come derby day

I was only busting chops about Steve.

And seeing how the horse doesnt have a big flashy trainer and a household name Jockey or a pretty name for the ladies I think his price is safe at 25-1.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Steve will answer i'm sure once he sees my post

He liked him in tampa and in ill - we'll see as he does a big time analysis of every derby horse so i'm sure we will get input from him at some point - there is plenty of time

if i hear anything from my man , ill be sure to post

let's just hope hammering hank , beyer and the rest of the so called experts say he is too slow and can't win , then the public won't jump on him come derby day

Well it's a double edged sword, because you know if Hank picks him as a win contender, you can safely toss him from all wagers.

There's no reason to worry about not getting a fair price on him. You will.

[Travis Stone]

Musket Man is a useful horse and it's hard to knock an animal who keeps on winning, but I think it's foolish to make him the stone-cold lock. There are lots of very good horses on this trail right now

[gales0678]

Travis i don't think there was ever a stone cold lock for any derby

Holly Bull looked awfully good and went straight to his knees , Arazi well we know what happened there, and Point Given to name a few

musket man will never be considered a lock , but ,this is good as it will help his price