Jan 24th at GP just keeps looking weirder and weirder

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Even if you ignore Beyers 100% - he ran light years better than he did the last time.

No question, and if a horse improved that much at any other time in his career, it would obviously be extremely strange. To me it just seems far less strange given that the jump came between his first and second lifetime starts, and also came with a significant stretchout to a distance he was likely to prefer.
Of course, I didn't think any of this before the race, so this is obviously just me searching for an explanation after the fact....but to me it doesn't seem THAT odd for him to have improved a great deal given these circumstances. Although, as you point out, the improvement appears to have been quite enormous....so who knows.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

No question, and if a horse improved that much at any other time in his career, it would obviously be extremely strange. To me it just seems far less strange given that the jump came between his first and second lifetime starts, and also came with a significant stretchout to a distance he was likely to prefer.
Of course, I didn't think any of this before the race, so this is obviously just me searching for an explanation after the fact....but to me it doesn't seem THAT odd for him to have improved a great deal given these circumstances. Although, as you point out, the improvement appears to have been quite enormous....so who knows.

Yeah - I'd never call that a suspicious improvement. Any horse is capable of exploding or deflating in just career start #2.

I'm just suspicious about the Beyers that day. It appears either the numbers for the early part of the card might be slower than they should be ... or TOFP and YLM actually might have run better than the 116 would indicate.

[ArlJim78]

I'd say yes the beyers may have been low that first time. The second start by Dunkirk was solid by all accounts.

also, Georgie Boy looks like a new animal now and I'm not sure if he's only a sprinter either.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'd say yes the beyers may have been low that first time. The second start by Dunkirk was solid by all accounts.

also, Georgie Boy looks like a new animal now and I'm not sure if he's only a sprinter either.

This is because Walsh went old school on him and let him work himself into shape. 7f and 8f are probably his best distances, have to think they have the BC Sprint circled with him also.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Georgie Boy was in awesome form before she backed off and gave him all the time.

He was by far the best 3yo in So Cal during the Derby prep season imo - and I know he will route well - because he already has.

I just thought both of his two comeback races this year weren't much at all. And his last two wins ... while clear-cut and all in important races - I think they weren't a great deal either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

BUT

If every other horse in the race backs up in relation to the winner, the performance isn't impressive UNLESS the final time was (figure) fast --- cause he didn't run fast enough to drop them? How did he drop them then? No answer.

He dropped them simply because they quit and he didn't.

The first half mile of that race was run in fractions similar to what you'd expect to see from stake horses going the distance. The last three furlongs of the race was BY FAR the weakest part of the race .. and I really don't care what happens in that part of the race.

Yes, Dunkirk came back and won in eye-popping fashion at 6/5 odds.

But - the three horses involved in the pace ... they are who you want from the race ..

a.) because they performed best in the strong part of the race - the first half

and

b.) because they performed poorly in the weak part of the race .. the final 3fs.

It's only because of part b that you get a price on them the next time they run. And like I mentioned in the post ... of the three .. two won back next out - one running 30 points faster Beyer wise and the other 40+ points faster and winning at 16/1 odds. The only remaining horse of the three involved in the pace - he hasn't run back - and I believe he was the 1st timer that John Velazquez took off of Dunkirk to ride.

horses who are in 7th place behind a pace meltdown - even if only 4 lengths off the pace - and win big ... they are not horses I want any part of next out even though they can win. I'd always rather have one who is burned up in the meltdown and stops. They can improve result dramatically in a softer pace race .. and they are more likely to get ignored in the betting rather than pounded.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He dropped them simply because they quit and he didn't.

The first half mile of that race was run in fractions similar to what you'd expect to see from stake horses going the distance. The last three furlongs of the race was BY FAR the weakest part of the race .. and I really don't care what happens in that part of the race.

Yes, Dunkirk came back and won in eye-popping fashion at 6/5 odds.

But - the three horses involved in the pace ... they are who you want from the race ..

a.) because they performed best in the strong part of the race - the first half

and

b.) because they performed poorly in the weak part of the race .. the final 3fs.

It's only because of part b that you get a price on them the next time they run. And like I mentioned in the post ... of the three .. two won back next out - one running 30 points faster Beyer wise and the other 40+ points faster and winning at 16/1 odds. The only remaining horse of the three involved in the pace - he hasn't run back - and I believe he was the 1st timer that John Velazquez took off of Dunkirk to ride.

horses who are in 7th place behind a pace meltdown - even if only 4 lengths off the pace - and win big ... they are not horses I want any part of next out even though they can win. I'd always rather have one who is burned up in the meltdown and stops. They can improve result dramatically in a softer pace race .. and they are more likely to get ignored in the betting rather than pounded.

I really cant take anymore... but a sock in it...You think you are going to teach the fat man..the guy is so pompous he wouldn't let Beyer Crist or any handicapper teach him never mind a jerk from Erie

[the_fat_man]

You constantly DWELL on the OBVIOUS. No doubt, if a number of horses are dooking it out and the pace falls apart, you want them back. Though you'd be surprised how often the horse doing the most running in terms of the setup just doesn't run well next out. (This is an angle I follow and it disappoints in relation to some others.)

The POINT of this thread, however, is that THE WINNER ran a HUGE EFFORT

AND

he wasn't supposed to given the FIGURE and, by most interpretations, THE SETUP. By all conventional accounts he 'sucked up', 'got a perfect trip', etc.

Either he's an anomaly or the system needs tweaking.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You constantly DWELL on the OBVIOUS. No doubt, if a number of horses are dooking it out and the pace falls apart, you want them back. Though you'd be surprised how often the horse doing the most running in terms of the setup just doesn't run well next out. (This is an angle I follow and it disappoints in relation to some others.)

The POINT of this thread, however, is that THE WINNER ran a HUGE EFFORT

AND

he wasn't supposed to given the FIGURE and, by most interpretations, THE SETUP. By all conventional accounts he 'sucked up', 'got a perfect trip', etc.

Either he's an anomaly or the system needs tweaking.

Let me get you an account over at on of my finer betting establishments.. I would love to earn on your betting angles.. How about 10% back with a red?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

IMO yes. 98 is the fastest Beyer any horse in this entire crop has run in there 2nd career start and going a distance beyond 6fs. And it flirts awful close with the magical 100 number ... which only six Derby starters have done in the last 6 years ... 3 of them subsequently winning the Derby, two finishing 2nd, and the other being Showing Up.




Even if you ignore Beyers 100% - he ran light years better than he did the last time.

Last time - his main competition in the race were involved in a vicous pace battle through wicked fractions and he rated off of them - and won in a race where the final 3/8ths were almost 40 seconds flat.

In start #2 he was caught out tremendously wide going into that first turn by Prado - who abandon the mount but still felt the need to race ride him. Inspite of that he beat the field with disdainful ease. Obviously he had a right to improve some 2nd time out ... but that was serious improvement.

If Edgar took off Dunkirk because he thought Alma D' Oro was better, he really don't know what he has underneath him. Funny that a rider opts off the horse that the leading rider in the counrty flies coast to coast to ride in an N1X ALW.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If Edgar took off Dunkirk because he thought Alma D' Oro was better, he really don't know what he has underneath him. Funny that a rider opts off the horse that the leading rider in the counrty flies coast to coast to ride in an N1X ALW.

Prado has been horrible. Prado off angle is slowly becoming considered alot more....

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If Edgar took off Dunkirk because he thought Alma D' Oro was better, he really don't know what he has underneath him. Funny that a rider opts off the horse that the leading rider in the counrty flies coast to coast to ride in an N1X ALW.

Isn't Alma a Dutrow horse who Prado is essentially the main man for?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Scav

Prado has been horrible. Prado off angle is slowly becoming considered alot more....

I have to wonder if Prado was given the opportunity to ride him back, given the Kamikazi mission he went on going into the clubhouse turn.

Then My first inclination was that it was Dutrow's idea. Who knows..

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Let me get you an account over at on of my finer betting establishments.. I would love to earn on your betting angles.. How about 10% back with a red?

Could you imagine having to deal with the fatman everyday? Even if he made you 100% on your money it wouldnt be worth dealing with that whining b#tch.

Everytime the idiot loses it's the jocks fault...Nyra's fault...the track super's fault.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Could you imagine having to deal with the fatman everyday? Even if he made you 100% on your money it wouldnt be worth dealing with that whining b#tch.

Everytime the idiot loses it's the jocks fault...Nyra's fault...the track super's fault.

lack of trakus....

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Could you imagine having to deal with the fatman everyday? Even if he made you 100% on your money it wouldnt be worth dealing with that whining b#tch.

Everytime the idiot loses it's the jocks fault...Nyra's fault...the track super's fault.

I thought the Big Boy would've come around (excuse the pun) if given the right environment.. The guy is brilliant but just needs to chill in the right room were people knew he was what he was... Then he might have flourished and stopped this insane my kock is bigger then your kock stuff..

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Jan 24th being Sunshine Millions day.

* Race #5 was run at 3:12 eastern time. It was a 3yo MSW race at 7fs. Dunkirk won it by 5 3/4 lengths over 2nd place finisher Santana Six in a laughably slow 1:25.00

* Race #6 was a turf race

* Race #7 was run at 4:08 eastern time. It was the Sunshine Millions dash at 6fs. This One's For Phil won it in a strong 1:09.10

Obviously, that 15.90 second discrepancy in time would suggest the difference between the nations best older male sprinter in victory and a rock bottom $5,000 claiming older male sprinter in victory.

The problem is that Dunkirk just embarassed an allowance field on Thursday and Santana Six just impressively won a MSW race on Saturday that was the faster of split heats.

Dunkirk's Beyer jumped from a 78 to a 98. Santana Six's from a 66 to a 95.

When I talked about Dunkirk's debut won on the radio and in a thread here - I basically said I wanted absolutely no part of the horse next time he runs. Not only because of the comicaly slow final time .. but because the early pace in that race was run through supersonic fast fractions for the level...and Dunkirk wasn't involved in the early pace.

The three horses you wanted from Dunkirk's race were obviously Santana Six, King's Village, and Ziegfeld. They battled for the lead in the top 3 positions through both the lightening fast first quarter mile and half mile - before all quitting.

Santana Six ran 29 points better and won back next out, Ziegfeld ran 46 points better when he upset a MSW race at 16/1 odds next out, King's Village has yet to run back.

Dunkirk, however, was one of the ones you couldn't possibly want as a bettor. And he ran head scratchingly well burrying that field at 6/5 on Thursday.

There where just two other dirt races on the card prior to Dunkirk's win.

* Race #3 won by Indy's Sonata.. who has yet to run back. 2nd place finisher Run All Day won yesterday's 1st race by 3 lengths - and her figure will improve double digits. The 5th place finisher came back and ran 3rd by just 2 lengths in a stake next out - her figure improving 21 points.

* Race #1 won by Radio Relay. He hasn't run back yet. Neither has the 2nd place finisher. However, 3rd place finisher Bruno's A Biter has run back. He won by 5 1/4 lengths at 7/2 odds and his figure improved 13 points.


That leaves only a pair of stakes won by This One For Phil's and High Resolve as the remaining one-turn dirt races on the card.

Obviously none of the serious horses from TOFP's race have run back - the third place finisher from HR's race did run back.. but only improved her Beyer 3 points.

This is starting to get real interesting to me - because I refuse to believe that This One's For Phil ran much faster than the 116 Beyer given. But the fact that High Resolve ran away with a 250K stake over a solid 12 horse field in just 1:11.55 two races later suggests that the track didn't speed up rapidly after the 5th race was run at 3:12 eastern and before the 7th was run at 4:08.

UNLESS ... the track superintendent did work to make the track clearly faster after the 5th race .. and did work to make the track clearly slower after the 7th race. Crazy thought huh? About as crazy a thought as This One's For Phil and You Luckie Mann both being able to run in the 120's.

Inverted bounce, perhaps?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I thought the Big Boy would've come around (excuse the pun) if given the right environment.. The guy is brilliant but just needs to chill in the right room were people knew he was what he was... Then he might have flourished and stopped this insane my kock is bigger then your kock stuff..

I figured, when I took you off iggy, that'd it be the typical **** from you. Do you ever contribute ON TOPIC?

DrugS just can't get over the fact that this horse ran well AFTER he (and others) went on and on about how it wouldn't. Any way he spins it, he can't account for its performance. Sounds like we need a conceptual shift.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I figured, when I took you off iggy, that'd it be the typical **** from you. Do you ever contribute ON TOPIC?

DrugS just can't get over the fact that this horse ran well AFTER he (and others) went on and on about how it wouldn't. Any way he spins it, he can't account for its performance. Sounds like we need a conceptual shift.

fatty I am your biggest fan begged my boys and girls to welcome you to a better place..That is why stone said imagine having to deal with your BS daily.

As for my Handicapping... I know 5 times more then most but am smart enough to realize I know a fraction of what folks like You, DrugS, BTW, and others know.. I am smart enough to listen and read to all the best work.. BTW I am a fairly substantial bettor and willing to take a serious shot at them when I am told to.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by freddymo

fatty I am your biggest fan begged my boys and girls to welcome you to a better place..That is why stone said imagine having to deal with your BS daily.

As for my Handicapping... I know 5 times more then most but am smart enough to realize I know a fraction of what folks like You, DrugS, BTW, and others know.. I am smart enough to listen and read to all the best work.. BTW I am a fairly substantial bettor and willing to take a serious shot at them when I am told to.

are u the guy making the 10k win bets at the big a recently?

if so why the #3 yesterday in the 7th ? btw thought it was supposed to be on the #3 in the 6th at gp?