Tampa Tuesday 1/27

[ateamstupid]

Any of the regular TAM bettors have any insight on whether or not to trust Ness/Centeno with Circumvent as a single in the 10th? The other three legs in my pick four are wide. Circumvent towers over the field, but they're not exactly being ambitious with their spotting, and the bullet work before his last smells like a $8,000 giveaway gone wrong. I'm usually against steep droppers next time out that don't get claimed.

Thoughts?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Any of the regular TAM bettors have any insight on whether or not to trust Ness/Centeno with Circumvent as a single in the 10th? The other three legs in my pick four are wide. Circumvent towers over the field, but they're not exactly being ambitious with their spotting, and the bullet work before his last smells like a $8,000 giveaway gone wrong. I'm usually against steep droppers next time out that don't get claimed.

Thoughts?

Joey...haven't looked at the race, but will take a look tonight. Bigs will tell you, DC isn't riding the same this year. Something just isn't right and I am very hesitant to single him.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Any of the regular TAM bettors have any insight on whether or not to trust Ness/Centeno with Circumvent as a single in the 10th? The other three legs in my pick four are wide. Circumvent towers over the field, but they're not exactly being ambitious with their spotting, and the bullet work before his last smells like a $8,000 giveaway gone wrong. I'm usually against steep droppers next time out that don't get claimed.

Thoughts?

Joe - Claiming off Ness on a steep drop is suicide - I'm sure there were a lot of eyeballs and not surprised in the least that there were no takers last time. I won't be surprised to see him go unclaimed again. There just isn't anything in here to get excited about - not sold Gaskin Land which is the next obvious but really think the 3 Silver Label will get involved early on the stretch out and compromise Circumvent. I'd probably have to find a way to use Homeister here as well. Not a single for me.

[GPK]

Way too many other options in this race IMO. Circumvent may win, but no chance in hell I would single.

Flynomore is usable. 3rd off and back to restricted land where he belongs.

Something clearly went wrong with Manolo Manolo. I know Ocala training track has been throwing out some fast works, but the last move gives me some indication that he is feeling a bit better and he has a couple races on his form that indicates he can run with these when feeling right.

Shot Gun Cliff is in good form and is back at the price he passed his N2L at.

Here's Ya Souviner has been facing tons better than these on the grass.

Too many viable options in this race at what will be much better prices.

[the_fat_man]

I don't see why this horse has to be a single. A more patient ride by Homeister (on Gaskin Land) or a better (fairer) setup for Shot Gun Cliff and either of these two could just as easily win the race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't see why this horse has to be a single. A more patient ride by Homeister (on Gaskin Land) or a better (fairer) setup for Shot Gun Cliff and either of these two could just as easily win the race.

Easy there. No one said he had to be a single. That's why I asked the question.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by GPK

Way too many other options in this race IMO. Circumvent may win, but no chance in hell I would single.

Flynomore is usable. 3rd off and back to restricted land where he belongs. This may be where he belongs, but he's run lousy four straight since the N2L win, including a 5th at this level

Something clearly went wrong with Manolo Manolo. I know Ocala training track has been throwing out some fast works, but the last move gives me some indication that he is feeling a bit better and he has a couple races on his form that indicates he can run with these when feeling right. 6-month layoff off terrible form with two four-furlong breezes, but you're right, he's not the worst stab

Shot Gun Cliff is in good form and is back at the price he passed his N2L at. Not impossible, but he could've shown more last out

Here's Ya Souviner has been facing tons better than these on the grass. He's also 2-for-74 and got dusted by restricted $5,000 claimers at Suffolk in a similar situation in July

Too many viable options in this race at what will be much better prices.

I also don't think Silver Label wants any part of two turns.

I sure as hell don't want any credit if the horse wins and pays $3.00, I just think this is a terrible bunch of coconuts and he's the only one who looks to have a pulse.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I also don't think Silver Label wants any part of two turns.

I sure as hell don't want any credit if the horse wins and pays $3.00, I just think this is a terrible bunch of coconuts and he's the only one who looks to have a pulse.

I don't think SL wants two turns either, but will certaily be part of the early pace and may be enough to press Circumvent to go earlier than he's used to. I'd agree with TFM that Rosemary is sitting in a perfect spott if she can ride her race.

The bright side is seeing Centeno, Homeister, Ronnie Allen all taking part in the less than stellar event - that hasn't happened much this meet and in my opinion the reason for the unexplainable bombs that seem to blow up the P4 with regularity so far.

[MaTH716]

Changes


These changes added at 1/27/2009 11:38:20 AM Eastern Time

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

TRACK: Fast
TURF: Firm
Portable Rail: at 12 feet

Weather: Sunny �mid 70�s

Super High 5 CARRYOVER: $2,413.65
Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $14,922.97


RACE 1 #8-Scratched(Alie�s Mandate) #9-blinkers off
Post Time 12:35

RACE 2 #3-blinkers on
#5-wears bar shoe
#9-Scratched(Great Point)
Post Time 1:02

RACE 3 No Changes
Post Time 1:29

RACE 4 No Changes
Post Time 1:56

RACE 5 (Turf)
#11-Scratched(On Tour)
#12-Scratched(Divine Colony)
#13-Scratched(Forgive Me)
#14-Scratched(Kaleigh Rose)
Post Time 2:15

RACE 6 #7-+2
#9-Scratched(North Ocean Drive)
Post Time 2:43

RACE 7 #6-Scratched(Falcon�s Mo)
#7-1ST Time Lasix
#14-Scratched(Begreatcat)
Post Time 3:12

RACE 8 #5-Scratched(It�s About Image)
Post Time 3:41

RACE 9 (Turf)
#1-Scratched(Old Time Religion)
#4-Scratched(Saldanha)
#5-jockey Jose E. Lopez - +2
#6-jockey C. Olivero
#10-Scratched(Maxy Levens)
Post Time 4:12

RACE 10 #9-+1
Post Time 4:40

[MaTH716]

I'm slowly working my way to unemployment. But while I'm sitting at work doing nothing, I'm trying to work on my Pick 4 ticket structure. I was hoping that the Tampa gang would be around today, but I guess some people have real jobs. Here's what I came up with.
Note:these are strictly play along tickets. Personally I am on a bit of a freshening.

8,10,13/2,4/3,6/1,2,6 =$36 $126.40
7,9,13/4,8/3,8/1,6 =$24

it would be a $60 investment

[ateamstupid]

Still couldn't trim my ticket down even with a single, so playing a LP3 and hoping to catch a price or two in the first two legs.

1,2,3,4,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 1

[ateamstupid]

**** Kirk Ziadie in the ear.

[ateamstupid]

There you have it ladies and gents. How to expertly turn $20 into $19. Good job w/the Pick 4 Matt.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

There you have it ladies and gents. How to expertly turn $20 into $19. Good job w/the Pick 4 Matt.

Thanks, it was only a play ticket. But for me it's a good exercise. I vowed to change my betting stratagies this year and play more pick 3's & 4's. So I was happy with the picks and the coverage I had in each race. Especially when it started with a 12 dollar horse, but the ending was very chalky. Will try again tomorrow.