This One's for Phil goes nuts...

[cakes44]

in a first start for Dutrow. Weird. I'm looking forward to see how much he improved in the Beyer department.

[dellinger63]

Last June as a 2 yr old he ran a huge! number (4 TG) and thus I think there was no magic just a better trainer 25% v. 12% getting the colt to perform like he was supposed to. Only other horses in the race that achieved that were Jutisu Jax and You Luckie Mann.

[Kasept]

Funny sidebar to 'Phil'... Horse was bought 3 months ago by Paul Pompa and Gulfstream still had the silks and ownership wrong.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Funny sidebar to 'Phil'... Horse was bought 3 months ago by Paul Pompa and Gulfstream still had the silks and ownership wrong.

He doesn't run in IHEA silks does he? Can't remember Backseat Rhythm's colors but the guy definately has the midas touch.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

He doesn't run in IHEA silks does he? Can't remember Backseat Rhythm's colors but the guy definately has the midas touch.

No. White jacket, green circle with red "P". Very familiar on NY circuit. You'll recognize it the next time you see it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

He doesn't run in IHEA silks does he? Can't remember Backseat Rhythm's colors but the guy definately has the midas touch.

pompa doesn't = ieah. i know they wanted to buy in on one of his three year olds, and he turned them down.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Danzig

pompa doesn't = ieah. i know they wanted to buy in on one of his three year olds, and he turned them down.

Well Positioned is that sharp 2nd time start winner that drowned an OK looking group. Spoke with Pompa yesterday and he said the horse is doing great.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Well Positioned is that sharp 2nd time start winner that drowned an OK looking group. Spoke with Pompa yesterday and he said the horse is doing great.

that's the one....couldn't think of his name! look forward to seeing him run again.

[VOL JACK]

Slight move up by Dutrow: 117 Beyer !!!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Slight move up by Dutrow: 117 Beyer !!!

[slotdirt]

I'm shocked.

On a more serious note, where the heck does Dutrow/IEAH find these horses? Kipling? Lucky Lionel? Untuttable???!?!?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm shocked.

On a more serious note, where the heck does Dutrow/IEAH find these horses? Kipling? Lucky Lionel? Untuttable???!?!?

Again, it's Paul Pompa, NOT IEAH. He gave the horse to Dutrow to train. And this gelding was no secret to the horse-buying crowd. He ran a Thoro-Graph 4 in the maiden-breaker July 27 last year that caught a lot of people's attention and later won the Seacliff going a mile. He also has a half brother that was a stakes winner (the Seacliff in fact!). Kathleen O'Connell kept trying to stretch him out, and it's pretty clear he's at his best sprinting.

The sheet figures are the key for the guys that buy these horses whether it's a Benny the Bull by Lucky Lionel and Kip Deville by Kipling in the case of IEAH or Student Council by Kingmambo in the case of Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown for Ro Parra's Millenium Farms. They see the sharp figures or patterns on obscure horses or mediocre form types and try to acquire these under-appreciated assets.

I'm not a particularly big Dutrow fan, but before accusing him of 'miracle work', recognize that he had 2 months with 'Phil' and he was returning him to what is likely his best aptitude. Say what you want about Dutrow, but acknowledge that a horse going from O'Connell to him is certain to improve. And also, I'll admit I'm not a BSF guru, but that Beyer looks too high. You Luckie Mann had run a previous best 107 Beyer winning the Birdonawire two back, and he likely gets a 113. Kelly Leak's previous best was an 84 and Ju Jitsu Jax an 86, and they are looking at a 101-103 or so.

Is it likely that all the top finishers moved that far up? The boy's race number must have been made off the girl's race an hour later since those figures are close in line with High Resolve and Dubai Majesty's figure patterns and their race was run more than a full second slower: 1:10.2 versus 1:09.0.

Will be interesting to see what This One's for Phil does this spring. If that fig is accurate, it may knock him out for awhile. It took a long time for him to recover from his big fig win at 2.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Again, it's Paul Pompa, NOT IEAH. He gave the horse to Dutrow to train. And this gelding was no secret to the horse-buying crowd. He ran a Thoro-Graph 4 in the maiden-breaker July 27 last year that caught a lot of people's attention and later won the Seacliff going a mile. He also has a half brother that was a stakes winner (the Seacliff in fact!). Kathleen O'Connell kept trying to stretch him out, and it's pretty clear he's at his best sprinting.

The sheet figures are the key for the guys that buy these horses whether it's a Benny the Bull by Lucky Lionel and Kip Deville by Kipling in the case of IEAH or Student Council by Kingmambo in the case of Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown for Ro Parra's Millenium Farms. They see the sharp figures or patterns on obscure horses or mediocre form types and try to acquire these under-appreciated assets.

I'm not a particularly big Dutrow fan, but before accusing him of 'miracle work', recognize that he had 2 months with 'Phil' and he was returning him to what is likely his best aptitude. Say what you want about Dutrow, but acknowledge that a horse going from O'Connell to him is certain to improve. And also, I'll admit I'm not a BSF guru, but that Beyer looks too high. You Luckie Mann had run a previous best 107 Beyer winning the Birdonawire two back, and he likely gets a 113. Kelly Leak's previous best was an 84 and Ju Jitsu Jax an 86, and they are looking at a 101-103 or so.

Is it likely that all the top finishers moved that far up? The boy's race number must have been made off the girl's race an hour later since those figures are close in line with High Resolve and Dubai Majesty's figure patterns and their race was run more than a full second slower: 1:10.2 versus 1:09.0.

Will be interesting to see what This One's for Phil does this spring. If that fig is accurate, it may knock him out for awhile. It took a long time for him to recover from his big fig win at 2.

It's interesting that you think the number is too high even though you actually don't know the point differentials towards the other horses. Plus, they played this number straight, as the track gave evidence that there was no split variant from the beginning of the day until the end. Also, why would it be surprising to see Kelly Leak improve a synthetic number on the dirt? This makes perfect sense if the horse handled the surface....which apparently he did.

I guess in this case admitting that Dutrow performed a miracle with this horse would also force you to admit that your beloved Marty Wolfson also performed a miracle.....and we can't have that.

Hey, I made a good score in that race, as I know what great trainers these guys are.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's interesting that you think the number is too high even though you actually don't know the point differentials towards the other horses. Plus, they played this number straight, as the track gave evidence that there was no split variant from the beginning of the day until the end. Also, why would it be surprising to see Kelly Leak improve a synthetic number on the dirt? This makes perfect sense if the horse handled the surface....which apparently he did.

I guess in this case admitting that Dutrow performed a miracle with this horse would also force you to admit that your beloved Marty Wolfson also performed a miracle.....and we can't have that.

Hey, I made a good score in that race, as I know what great trainers these guys are.

As suggested, I was speculating on the differentials... That makes sense on Kelly Leek on the surface switch... but aren't those really significant jump ups on all the top finishers? How often do you get that many horses all moving forward to that extent in one race? And even if you subscribe to the theory that Dutrow, Wolfson, Machowsky and Lake are ALL taking an edge, it doesn't seem possible that they all just happen to be jamming them in this one event?

[slotdirt]

I realize this one is Pompa; I was just pointing out that This One's for Phil is another one in a reasonbly long string of Dutrow and/or IEAH runners by incredibly random sires.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As suggested, I was speculating on the differentials... That makes sense on Kelly Leek on the surface switch... but aren't those really significant jump ups on all the top finishers? How often do you get that many horses all moving forward to that extent in one race? And even if you subscribe to the theory that Dutrow, Wolfson, Machowsky and Lake are ALL taking an edge, it doesn't seem possible that they all just happen to be jamming them in this one event?

I don't know anything about Machowsky, but his horse may not have really improved as I pointed out, but Dutrow, Wolfson and Lake all have pristine records and I have never seen one instance of any of them improving a horse at all.....much less substantially overnight.

You're right.....the fig is wrong.

[freddymo]

Steve as the voice racing can we get Dutrow on to explain what he was able to do to the horse to run so fast.. Maybe the horse had a simple problem like a bad cold and just needed some antiboitics and some good ole fashion TLC... Bring Richard on and let him share his good training procedures with us all.. Then maybe Mr Wolfson can come on followed by Scotty Lake... We can name the segment "House"

[cmorioles]

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.

[Kasept]

Thx CJ. That's a great analysis and big help to understanding the performances.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As suggested, I was speculating on the differentials... That makes sense on Kelly Leek on the surface switch... but aren't those really significant jump ups on all the top finishers? How often do you get that many horses all moving forward to that extent in one race? And even if you subscribe to the theory that Dutrow, Wolfson, Machowsky and Lake are ALL taking an edge, it doesn't seem possible that they all just happen to be jamming them in this one event?

Ju Jitsu Jax was a 96...