Watched Flower Alley work this morning

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by oracle80

AT least someone gets the point of it. Dalakhani never gets points because he too busy just trying to shoot people down rather than EVER add something of interest of a ticket that people can make money on.
Bluegrass Cat was a mediocre horse until his last race, I think I described him as such right here many times. I've never been a big Bluegrass Cat fan or supporter.
Thats why when i saw the Haskell I just couldnt believe what I was seeing, I really couldnt. That was a completely different animal mentally then the one I saw before. I was wondering if they made a mistake and mixed up the halters in the Whitney the day before and ran FA in the Haskell.
The horse had never shown good speed before and had not been so settled and controllable. He had always run in spots before, not always mentally focused on his race at all times. He always had to be ridden very hard to get postion or run down the lane.
In the Haskell he was keen early, settled exactly when asked afterhe got position, and then responded under no urging to enagage the leader and when set down in the lane switched leads on cue and took off like a jet plane. That was a breakthrough race for him and I think that the lightbulb finally went on over his head. He gets it now, and certainly acted like a horse who not only enjoyed what he was doing but knew what he was supposed to do as well.
His workout the other day was anxiously awaited by everyone to see if the lightbulb had indeed stayed on or if it was perhaps a fluke. The clocker/extrainer I sat next to turned to me after the workout and said "Son, did you see that?! Lemme tell you what son, that was the work of the MEET and I seen em all!!!!". I think hes mentally awoken and perhaps had much more talent than I ever gave him credit for. Quite frankly I thought he always got too much hype because of his trainer and the fact that he was by Storm Cat. This is a dynamic game, and we are allowed to change our opinions based on what we see develop. I think he can win this Saturday.

Mike, I'm going to take your word on BG's work because I didn't see it myself. Question though... what were your thoughts on the Haskell while BC was in the paddock and post parade? I thought for sure he was going to blow it because he was so washed, but he proved me wrong. Do you think the fact that he was as washed as he was will have any affect on the Travers?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by dr.fager

...oh please don't encourage her, she'll start spouting off that Innkeeper was Secretariat's best colt.....

I love Innkeeper. And he IS the most gorgeous and conformed colt that Secretariat sired, so there.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Mike, I'm going to take your word on BG's work because I didn't see it myself. Question though... what were your thoughts on the Haskell while BC was in the paddock and post parade? I thought for sure he was going to blow it because he was so washed, but he proved me wrong. Do you think the fact that he was as washed as he was will have any affect on the Travers?

Pletcher says he is one of few horses that you want to bet with both fists if he is on his toes and "washed" up. Before the Bluegrass he was as calm as can be and we all know how he ran that day.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Pletcher says he is one of few horses that you want to bet with both fists if he is on his toes and "washed" up. Before the Bluegrass he was as calm as can be and we all know how he ran that day.

Damn, that would have been nice to know on Haskell day. LOL

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Pletcher says he is one of few horses that you want to bet with both fists if he is on his toes and "washed" up. Before the Bluegrass he was as calm as can be and we all know how he ran that day.

Hes a Storm Cat with that hot blood. I guess I don't know how to gauge him based on that. I do know that Saratoga is his home and that walking over fro Todd's barn at Oklahoma will be lots easier than it was to ship to Monmouth. Todd's awesome about paddock schooling as well and I expect to see him at least once this week in the paddock, maybe twice. Todd leaves nothing to chance. Like all great profesionals he addresses every detail and tries to make much of his own luck.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Hes a Storm Cat with that hot blood. I guess I don't know how to gauge him based on that. I do know that Saratoga is his home and that walking over fro Todd's barn at Oklahoma will be lots easier than it was to ship to Monmouth. Todd's awesome about paddock schooling as well and I expect to see him at least once this week in the paddock, maybe twice. Todd leaves nothing to chance. Like all great profesionals he addresses every detail and tries to make much of his own luck.

So how many Pletcher Boobleheads did you spin for anyway?!?!

(I'm only joking, but you've got some goo-goo fest going over him)

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So how many Pletcher Boobleheads did you spin for anyway?!?!

(I'm only joking, but you've got some goo-goo fest going over him)

I didnt take any.
I admire Todd because hes only one year older than I am and what he has accomplished is incredible. I also like trainers that try very hard at all times and that you can count on as having done their very best with a horse to get it to win.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Damn, that would have been nice to know on Haskell day. LOL

he was even worse in the Derby post parade.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

he was even worse in the Derby post parade.

It may have helped if had watched him in the post parade. He screwed up my tri. (Well, I screwed up my tri, but whatever.) I had Barbaro to win, Steppy to place and Showing Up to SHOW UP.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

he was even worse in the Derby post parade.

Yes, I remember that very well because I couldn't believe that the horse ran so well.

Someone also said he wasn't washed out at Keeneland? All the horses were washed out on Bluegrass day because I remember it being incredibly hot. Most even had sweat dripping off of them. I really don't think BCG took to the track that day.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

he was even worse in the Derby post parade.

where he beat everyone except barbaro!!

also, to those who think/have posted that bernardini wins 'for fun' or 'by open lengths' against older, please keep in mind that secretariat, felt by many to be the best of the entire 20th century, went 1 for 3 against older. it's not that easy. a good four year old beats a good three year old. it remains to be seen what bernardini can accomplish against more mature colts.

and as for his jim dandy showing what he can do....two words--bellamy road. and if you're reply to that is but look what bernardini did in the preakness, that race fell apart. and again, look at bellamy roads last before the wood. his average margin of victory before faltering in the derby was over 16 lengths. and that's just one example. there are PLENTY more. please don't call him great until he finally shows he is. and if you think i'm too hard on him, who i enjoy like hell seeing race, he's been nothing short of amazing so far, just remember that i never bestowed the term 'great' on ghostzapper! take a lot of heat for that, but the guy didn't run enough. great should only be given to those who show they truly are. give bernardini time. please enjoy him, i do...but wait a while to call him great. he won't mind.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

where he beat everyone except barbaro!!

also, to those who think/have posted that bernardini wins 'for fun' or 'by open lengths' against older, please keep in mind that secretariat, felt by many to be the best of the entire 20th century, went 1 for 3 against older. it's not that easy. a good four year old beats a good three year old. it remains to be seen what bernardini can accomplish against more mature colts.

and as for his jim dandy showing what he can do....two words--bellamy road. and if you're reply to that is but look what bernardini did in the preakness, that race fell apart. and again, look at bellamy roads last before the wood. his average margin of victory before faltering in the derby was over 16 lengths. and that's just one example. there are PLENTY more. please don't call him great until he finally shows he is. and if you think i'm too hard on him, who i enjoy like hell seeing race, he's been nothing short of amazing so far, just remember that i never bestowed the term 'great' on ghostzapper! take a lot of heat for that, but the guy didn't run enough. great should only be given to those who show they truly are. give bernardini time. please enjoy him, i do...but wait a while to call him great. he won't mind.

I agree, Danzig.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

If I even attempt to answer your question, I'm going to be attacked as being a Bernardini lover........nonetheless, IMO, yes. Bernardini has proven he can run from off the pace or win on the lead; he's shown he can win on sloppy conditions..........which is not a given for good horses. Some good horses never lifted their hooves in the mud. This is all I have to say about Bernardini for now because I don't feel like being attacked.

i'm not exactly sure why a post presenting a point different to your own would be viewed by you as an attack....and my question was one i truly wanted answered. it wasn't posted by me in a sarcastic tone, i was curious. sorry that you take things this way...

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i'm not exactly sure why a post presenting a point different to your own would be viewed by you as an attack....and my question was one i truly wanted answered. it wasn't posted by me in a sarcastic tone, i was curious. sorry that you take things this way...

oops, I did not mean that YOU would attack me, Danzig. There was nothing wrong with your post. I apologize, I wasn't clear. I meant that if I tried to explain my position, I would be attacked by other posters (someone just above called me either crazy or Bernardini's owner) for being so in love with this horse that my viewpoint couldn't possibly be valid. I debated whether or not to answer your question, but since I knew you wouldn't get on my case, I answered it. Sorry for being so unclear!

[hockey2315]

I read an article today where they interviewed Ward about the Travers. He's hoping that BGC and Bernardini get caught up in a speed duel and one of his horses can pick up the pieces. . .

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

The original argument wasn't about whether he is cold right now. Oracle's original argument was that the fact that Albertrani is not doing well at Saratoga proves that he's not a good trainer. My point was that his record for the year is more indicative of his abilty than his record for the month.

[hockey2315]

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

[Gander]

I think what Mike was saying was that it isnt a bad time to take a shot against a very heavy favorite in Bernardini, who is trained by a guy who has only won 1 race this whole meet, a walkover which shouldnt even count as a win. Considering his opposition comes into this off a thrashing of a pretty good Haskell field trained by a guy who doesnt know what a slump is.
Thats all. In my opinion BGC will be overbet this weekend.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

By the way, I think that when an athlete is in a slump it is very significant. I would not feel very confident in an athelte who has been in a slump for a month.

But with a trainer, I'm not sure how significant a 1 for 16 slump is. A 20% trainer would only win 3 times out of 15 in the long-run. It's not really a big deal if a trainer is 1 for 16. that's only two less wins than he would normally have. He could easily win a few races the next week and be right back on track. With an athlete, there may be a good reason as to why they're in a slump. Their stroke may be a little bit off or whatever. With Albertrani, I doubt he is doing anything different than normal. It's probably just a fluke.