Watched Flower Alley work this morning

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

well mike do you really want to call out tom...i think dini is the best horse in training right now..he gonna school all on travers day ..ill leave this board for ever if he doesent win sat.. and you need too take care of some loose end or there is gonna be a problem...simons guy is pissed

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

All I know is that I would rather have Todd Pletcher in my corner on Saturday than anyone else. Apparently ole Tommy boy's meet isn't going so well. Guy has all that valuabel anbd expensive horseflesh in his barn and after 4 weeks he still sadly only has one win. I know you all couldnt wait to jump ugly on me after i ridiculed his job with Songster. Appears I know more as usual. one win in 4 weeks, geez thats just swell.

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

well mike do you really want to call out tom...i think dini is the best horse in training right now..he gonna school all on travers day ..ill leave this board for ever if he doesent win sat.. and you need too take care of some loose end or there is gonna be a problem...simons guy is pissed

I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Who cares how he's done for the last month? I care how he's doing for the year. For the year, he's winning at a 20% clip. That's the only thing that matters.

With a baseball player(a pitcher), does it matter if he starts the year 6-1? Does it matter if he wins his last 4 starts of the year? If the pitcher's record is 22-8 at the end of the year, that means he had a good year. It doesn't matter how he did at the beginning, the middle, or the end. His overall record tells you more than any short stretch. You know that, so why do you bring up these silly, short-term stats.

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

[quote=oracle80]I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.[/QUOTE...there wont be one ..how can you compare the two..has never put two good runs together..check mate dini....

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think that Bernadini is a great horse, I saw his work the other day and he looked marvelous. That being said, I don't like the way Albertrani's horses are running up here at all. hes got stock, so whats the deal? Whos fault is it Hooves? Obviously on talent bernadini has the edge, but better trainers have beaten better horses before and Cat's workout was great the other day, better than Dini's. I'm thinking its a stretch duel that goes to Cat.[/QUOTE...there wont be one ..how can you compare the two..has never put two good runs together..check mate dini....

That true Hooves he hasnt. But a guy I respect whos trained a few Storm cats told me the problem with training them is two fold. Number one they are unsound as a rule, many of them offset just like Daddy. Number two, many of them are just real hot blooded and mental cases, it takes a while for many of them to figure things out, a long while.
The problem is that number one often prevents number two from happening. In other words most of em break down and are finished before the lightbulb comes on over their heads and they figure out what it is that they are supposed to be doing. This one appears to have figured out the game and is still sound. I respect very much the opinion of the guy who told me this and it makes a lotta sense if you think about examples you may have seen.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Fine, then hes in a slump, do you not go against guys in a slump as a rule???

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. there will be all kinds of fluctautions. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I wouldn't even call it a slump. I would call it a short-term fluctuation. Sure he is only 1 for 16, but he has five 2nd place finishes and a few 3rd place finishes. He's a 20% trainer, so you would expect him to have 3 wins from his 16 starts. He only has 1 win, so he has 2 less wins than he should. That's not really a big deal. That kind of thing happens all the time. A 20% trainer will not win with 2 out of every 10 starters in the short-run. He may win 4 out of 10 and then go 0 for his next 10. But in the long-run he will win 20% which is 2 out of 10.

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Did you factor in todays losses as well?

No, I didn't. I guess that means he's 1 for 18. If it gets much worse than this, I would have to agree with you that he may be in a little slump.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

No, I didn't. I guess that means he's 1 for 18. If it gets much worse than this, I would have to agree with you that he may be in a little slump.

I already knew that you hadn't. I've been keeping track and knew what he was already.

[Sightseek]

I wouldn't bank on the in a slump theory....even Desmoreax wins one occasionally.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I wouldn't bank on the in a slump theory....even Desmoreax wins one occasionally.

LOL. And Mike Smith is in the Hall of Fame for that matter....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

...he'll run his 4 on the sheets like usual and Bernardini will run around a scratch performance and dust him....he's just in another league - like Tiger right now on the PGA Tour..not that Vijay or Phil or any of those guys suck, but Tiger is simply in another talent galaxy from those guys, ad that is how I feel about Bernardini....

So basically your saying Bernardini is the best horse that ever lived. Terrible comparison with Tiger. The breeding side means more than the performance, thats pretty clear. Lava Man could never live up to some people's expectations because he choose the wrong parents. A claimer. Get off the breeding, get on the performance. The horse has much more to prove on that end. And I for one hope he does. And then I hope he is sterile so we can continue to see him on the track.

I guess I would be in some trouble if I rendered him incapable. But the people who love watching horses run would annoint me Pope.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If I flip a coin right now 100 times, it would not be surprising if there are periods where heads comes up 4 times in a row. That would not be unusual. The only thing that would be unusual would be if one side came much more than the other side over time. If I flipped the coin 1000 times and heads came up 600 times, you would know that there is something wrong with the coin.

But if I flipped a coin only 10 times and one side came up 7 times, I wouldn't assume that there was anything wrong with the coin. I would just assume that it was a short-term fluctuation

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Actually if you had enough people flip coins 1000 times, you would absolutely expect to have some people get heads 600 times. For all you stat people, the Chi-squared test gives exact numbers of this probablility.

Cmon I know there is a female out there that knows this stuff. I hope she reads this and does the math. Then we need to talk.

Unfortunately, pgardn, I'm already married.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Remember when Corinthian ran by First Samurai down in Florida like he was standing still and everyone thought he was a machine?

Same ****, different time of the year.......

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Unfortunately, pgardn, I'm already married.

So am I. I dont want any opposite gender talk. I want math talk woman. Im gelded and whupped every other way.

I love tote boards. Thats all I will say. I love em. Do tote boards turn you on?

You can answer that tomorrow, to bed for me. I gotta figure out the damn derivative by limit proof again early tomorrow. I always make some stupid mistake and I cant have these brilliant little 17 and 18 year olds catch me every darn year. The heavy math I dont need for physics. The power rule and U substitution is really all I need from calculus. And integration of course,but that will come in time.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So am I. I dont want any opposite gender talk. I want math talk woman. Im gelded and whupped every other way.

I love tote boards. Thats all I will say. I love em. Do tote boards turn you on?

You can answer that tomorrow, to bed for me. I gotta figure out the damn derivative by limit proof again early tomorrow. I always make some stupid mistake and I cant have these brilliant little 17 and 18 year olds catch me every darn year. The heavy math I dont need for physics. The power rule and U substitution is really all I need from calculus. And integration of course,but that will come in time.

Holy shiat... it is way too late (or early depending upon where you are) for that kind of math talk...

Let's stick to the opposite gender talk.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Some of you wouldn't know a great horse if he slapped you in the face, and he basically has and will again this weekend. The extra 1/16th of a mile is not going to make one bit of a difference with this horse. He was running incredibly strong at the end of the Preakness. No one was going to catch him because he is simply just too fast. I am willing to say that he probably is the best horse in the world right now, and will have his coming out party in November.

i know great horses, bernardini isn't there yet. maybe some day he will be. he's got the talent, he seems to have what it takes.

i'll reserve judgement on 'greatness' til after he's met older at the very least.

i gotta give props to the bernardini fans. after his overwhelming win in the dandy, you'd expect to see a lot of hype. but bluegrass cat won his haskell by the widest margin ever--but for a change not too many people went with the latest star and have stuck to their guns.

but i think i'll go with the pletcher trainee over the albertrani, esp considering it's at saratoga.

but believe me, i won't be disappointed in whoever is the winner.