3-yr-old Eclipse Award prop at Pinnacle - Page 3

GPK · #41 08-04-2006, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's not that strange, GPK. The bets at Del Mar have almost certainly taken more action, so the limits have been raised. I think that if you caught those Del Mar matchups earlier in the day, you would have seen $200 maxes there, too.

My limits on the Meadowlands/Del Mar matchups are 274/700+, and the 700+ number also includes cents.

Have you done particularly well betting the matchups at Pinnacle? I'm trying to understand why your limits are low.

--Dunbar

I hit all 5 matchups offered yesterday at Toga, but none of them were of any significant amount. $ of the 5 were the underdog won, but again...they money wasn't enough to make a difference.

SentToStud · #42 08-04-2006, 05:17 PM

they call gpk "The Line Mover" over at Pinnacle.

whorstman · #43 08-04-2006, 05:23 PM

Bernardini is the flava o the month right now. If he's solid the next few outings, he'll get-r-done.

Betsy · #44 08-04-2006, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Seriously? there is no way that the Travers locks up 3 year old of the year, your nuts....they both would have won two grade 1's, one against 20 horses and 10 horses and the other will win two of them with 10 horses combined in two races

Bernendini has to win the BC Classic to win 3 year old of the year, and EVEN then, he might not win that because they might give Barbaro 3 year old of the year and Bernendini Horse of the year

Bernardini has to win the Travers, obviously, but I don't think he has to win the Classic. If he beats older horses once and runs well in the Classic, he has a shot. I just don't understand how one horse can get the 3 year old Eclipse and one HOY... makes no sense to me.

hockey2315 · #45 08-04-2006, 06:30 PM

2 things I'd like to correct/comment on-

Someone said that Bernardini is undefeated- he's not - I'm not sure if he lost at age 2 or 3 (I don't think he raced @ 2 but could be wrong) - but he lost in an allowance race- i believe it was his first race whenever it was- no matter when it was, Barbaro is undefeated for the sake of argument and Bernardini is not.

The NTRA poll is also totally misleading because, obviously, some voters stopped voting for Barbaro as soon as he got hurt because even if he is/was the best 3 y.o. or horse of any age, it wouldn't matter because he's retired. Even though the poll may usually be a good indicator of how the awards go, it's totally skewed this year.

hockey2315 · #46 08-04-2006, 06:34 PM

O and boldruler- why does it matter what surface showing up is better on? Barbaro was better than him on both. And correct me if I'm wrong (I really don't know, not being sarcastic)- it's 3 y.o. of the year, right? Not 3 y.o. dirt horse of the year.

Danzig · #47 08-04-2006, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't buy the comparisons, Danzig. Flower Alley did not win a TC race, and ran unimpressively in the Derby. That's very different from a Bernardini who won a TC race by major daylight and is undefeated.

I was no War Emblem fan, but he did win 2 TC races, and had an excuse in the Belmont after falling on his nose at the start. Came Home was also poor in the BCC, if I remember correctly. I think MDO just didn't win enough races, but I'd have to go back to check on that.

IMO, if Bernardini wins everything up to the BCC, he does not have to win the BCC to get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. In fact, if I believed otherwise, I'd be all over the Barbaro side of that Pinnacle bet. The chance of Bernardini winning out from here is much much less than even money.

--Dunbar

firstly, i said bernardini had an advantage because he won a classic race. i guess you missed that--apparently you also missed the fact that bernardini lost his first race, in which he finished fourth. he's won everything since, but he's definitely not undefeated.
also, for several years now i've cautioned others on their prognostications about eclipse awards, esp the 3 yo's...i don't toot my own horn often, but i haven't been wrong yet.

i think flower alley is a legit comparison, especially considering his wins in the jim dandy, the travers, his runs before the derby, and his efforts against older horses.
giving the eclipse out NOW is incredibly premature. the travers hasn't been won yet, but already some are proclaiming bernardini an easy winner--a horse who hasn't even run 10f yet, while many in his age group did so months ago--some better than others of course....

had there been no dual classic winnner last year, flower alley would have gotten the nod. at this point tho, bernardini is ahead of giacomo in accomplishments, but he's not a shoo in.

Dunbar · #48 08-05-2006, 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

firstly, i said bernardini had an advantage because he won a classic race. i guess you missed that

No, I didn't miss that. I even quoted it. But you went on to say,

"flower alley ran second in the bcc and won the travers, alex still got the vote. now, of course bernardini won a classic, that's in his favor. but i feel he would have to win out the year to get 3 yo honors. second in the bcc wasn't enough in years past, it won't be this year either. "

That's what I was addressing. I, and most of the people in this thread, don't think he has to win the bcc. Your comparison to Flower Alley is not valid, IMO, because (1) FA did NOT win a TC race, and (2) FA was up against a dual TC winner, whereas Bernardini is up against a single TC winner.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

--apparently you also missed the fact that bernardini lost his first race, in which he finished fourth. he's won everything since, but he's definitely not undefeated.

I did forget that, and I apologize for the error.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

also, for several years now i've cautioned others on their prognostications about eclipse awards, esp the 3 yo's...i don't toot my own horn often, but i haven't been wrong yet.

It will be hard for you to be wrong this year. To be wrong, Bernardini will have to win everything up to the BCC, THEN finish 2nd or 3rd in the BCC, THEN NOT get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. Of course, it will be almost as hard for ME to be wrong. All the same conditions as you being wrong, except Bernardini WOULD get the Eclipse. Far more likely is that neither of us will be wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i think flower alley is a legit comparison, especially considering his wins in the jim dandy, the travers, his runs before the derby, and his efforts against older horses.

Afleet Alex was the more impressive horse before the Derby. And trying to put the Jim Dandy and the Travers in the same league with the Preakness and Belmont is not reasonable. And I'm being charitable with "not reasonable".

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

giving the eclipse out NOW is incredibly premature. the travers hasn't been won yet, but already some are proclaiming bernardini an easy winner--a horse who hasn't even run 10f yet, while many in his age group did so months ago--some better than others of course....

I completely agree with you there. I am not saying Bernardini deserves the Eclipse or that he will get it. We are only talking about whether he would get it if certain events come to pass. Nothing wrong with speculating. Especially when there is a bet (the Pinnacle prop) that is available that's begging for analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

had there been no dual classic winnner last year, flower alley would have gotten the nod.

You are probably right about that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

at this point tho, bernardini is ahead of giacomo in accomplishments, but he's not a shoo in.

He's hardly a shoo-in. But he does not need to win everything under the sun to overtake Barbaro.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #49 08-05-2006, 05:49 AM

The money on the Pinnacle prop is coming in primarily on Bernardini. The line is now:

101 Barbaro +121
102 Bernardini -137

For those not familiar with sports notation, "+121" means you bet 100 to win 121. "-137" means you bet 137 to win 100. So Barbaro is about 6-5 while Bernardini is about 7-10.

--Dunbar

#50 08-05-2006, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Pinnacle has recently put up this prop:
_______________________________________
"Sun 8/6 Who will win Champion 3 year old colt or gelding?
Bernardini must start in Travers for action. No action if neither wins Eclipse.

101 Barbaro -107
102 Bernardini -109 "
_______________________________________

I don't know why it's dated 8/6--somebody's goof.

This is a chance for those who have already annointed Bernardini as the 2nd coming of Spectacular Bid to cash in. I was tempted myself, but decided to pass.

Limits are low, and will remain so until Pinnacle takes in some more action on the prop.

--Dunbar

I would take Barbaro in a heartbeat. IN order for Bernadini to win this prop he will have to defeat older horses in either the JCGC or Breeders Cup. I think he will meet his Waterloo when he gets to Flower Alley this fall. The voters simply won't annoint him champ unless he beats the older horses.

Dunbar · #51 08-05-2006, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80

I would take Barbaro in a heartbeat. IN order for Bernadini to win this prop he will have to defeat older horses in either the JCGC or Breeders Cup. I think he will meet his Waterloo when he gets to Flower Alley this fall. The voters simply won't annoint him champ unless he beats the older horses.

If you liked Barbaro at -107, you have to love him at +121. I'm leaning in that direction myself.

--Dunbar

GPK · #52 08-05-2006, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you liked Barbaro at -107, you have to love him at +121. I'm leaning in that direction myself.

--Dunbar

he is +107 RIGHT NOW

Scav · #53 08-05-2006, 11:17 AM

BTW, the reason it is dated for 8/6 is that is when they are taking the line down..Line comes down on 8/6 at 9am PST

I think that is what it is..

My limit is 285.71, like yours

GPK · #54 08-05-2006, 11:21 AM

my limits on head to head matchups are now at $500 at Toga...yesterday they were $200

the eclipse bet is still $200

Dunbar · #55 08-05-2006, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

BTW, the reason it is dated for 8/6 is that is when they are taking the line down..Line comes down on 8/6 at 9am PST

I think that is what it is..

But that date makes no sense at all. If Bernardini were racing on 8/6 it would make sense. I think they meant to write 8/26, which is the date of the Travers.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #56 08-06-2006, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

Nobody will take the Barbaro side of the action no matter what the odds.

The odds have swung to :
101 Barbaro -120
102 Bernardini +104

This indicates that Pinnacle has taken in MORE money on Barbaro than on Bernardini.

--Dunbar

GPK · #57 08-06-2006, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The odds have swung to :
101 Barbaro -120
102 Bernardini +104

This indicates that Pinnacle has taken in MORE money on Barbaro than on Bernardini.

--Dunbar

I was just checking this too...amazing the swinging this bet has done in the past 24 hours.

Danzig · #58 08-06-2006, 10:57 AM

probably because there was another big race yesterday, and now invasor is on all minds, not bernardini.

just wait til after the haskell!

such short memories....except amazingly where it comes to barbaros victories. he's turning into legend, bernardini will have to become one himself to compete with that.

Dunbar · #59 08-06-2006, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

probably because there was another big race yesterday, and now invasor is on all minds, not bernardini.

just wait til after the haskell!

such short memories....except amazingly where it comes to barbaros victories. he's turning into legend, bernardini will have to become one himself to compete with that.

Oddly enough, Pinnacle has taken the prop down altogether, as if the outcome of the Haskell WILL have a big effect on the odds line for the Barbaro vs Bernardini prop.

I can see where the Haskell outcome might have a small effect. A big win by Bluegrass Cat might flatter Barbaro's Ky Derby, for example. But I'm still surprised they've taken it down.

--Dunbar