monday gulf ,sa ,fg pick 4s

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the 1 all man ran eyes out and goes on w list

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Hooves,I'm getting a lot of 2nds.IT'S NOT THE TRACK I HAD 2 WEEKS AGO. It's not bad,but it's a lil speed favoring for my taste...Leaves everything up to luck of who gets lone lead(that's not always capping.)I'd rather have the track 2 weeks ago(I could run somebody down....the horse who was best was winning because they could run horses down.)

[SCUDSBROTHER]

See...Again...lone lead.....Can't run them down now...2 weeks ago,Foxy SOCKS OR SWEET BELLE GET UP.

[docicu3]

Several irrational outcomes at SA today.........ruins any opportunity to put in the work and reap a benefit.....I never thought it possible to have more faith in GG than northern california racing....a great day to stick an eating utensil in your eye.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

It's a lil hot n' dry out here.They've lost the track now.No shot if somebody clears on anything but fierce pace...Horses like FOXY SOCKS,Rye Man etc. will come back n' win on a fair track.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i cant agree..the track 2 weeks ago was diffrent we all need to adjust..and i got it done..so can you.......

[Scav]

Orman is actually winning races, anyone thinking of betting should proceed with major risk when he is winning

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Several irrational outcomes at SA today.........ruins any opportunity to put in the work and reap a benefit.....I never thought it possible to have more faith in GG than northern california racing....a great day to stick an eating utensil in your eye.

THURSDAY N' FRIDAY...tough to win on front....Today=opposite....It's all about the surface.You're gunna get a different winner depending on it.For instance,look at thelast race Thursday versus the last race sunday.I'M no huge fan of Knoblach,but come on.There were 2 horses up front going decent pace.The fact Knob doesn't come get his 2nd or 3rd shows me it ain't a fair track. I'm not gunna keep playing it if they don't give me a track I can run a horse down on.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i cant agree..the track 2 weeks ago was diffrent we all need to adjust..and i got it done..so can you.......

No,you can't adjust if it's going back in forth.That's what I am telling you.I am not gunna argue.I won't play it until they get it fair.I don't win on tracks that aren't fair.You can't cap it.It's like trying to avoid a wreck on a freeway.People all start guessing.Jocks start over-adjusting in some races,and not adjusting in others.I'll wait until it's fair.I'm good enough to know a fair track,but more importantly, I've got the discipline to wait.It's easy to say adjust,but the problem is the jocks start trying to adjust,and you can't cap what they are gunna do.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the 2 just came off the pace to win......

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the 2 just came off the pace to win......

Lovely ride by Gomez on the 1.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

You see Gomez come too late? Believe me..that horse will romp on a fair track.See,Scud get another 2nd.Scud plays best horse,k.Don't get there due to track.That's the best rate jock in the world,and the horse was all willing.What's missing? That track...Not fair.Can you predict GOGO'S horse? Yes.The winner..no.....It's not about cappin' You can't cap the winner of the last.That's not the best horse.In the right place at the right time...2 weeks ago,GOGO gets up to win the last,but don't believe me.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

OK i picked 8 of 9 winners, one lost by a wisker.. a 4k pick 4..this place is really weak...the track is fair..you can capp it....

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

You see Gomez come too late? Believe me..that horse will romp on a fair track.See,Scud get another 2nd.Scud plays best horse,k.Don't get there due to track.That's the best rate jock in the world,and the horse was all willing.What's missing? That track...Not fair.Can you predict GOGO'S horse? Yes.The winner..no.....It's not about cappin' You can't cap the winner of the last.That's not the best horse.In the right place at the right time...2 weeks ago,GOGO gets up to win the last,but don't believe me.

With all due respect, Gomez blew this one. The fractions were much slower than his last race (1/2 Furlong shorter) and he was outrun TWICE today was he was in that one on the backstretch. Why in the world is this horse, coming off a sprint, significantly OUTRUN by horses coming off routes? Then, he's so wide on the turn that he disappears for the stretch run, coming into the picture a few strides before the wire. What a joke of a ride. I mean, how does a jock have the balls to face the connections after a ride like that?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the 2 just came off the pace to win......

Not the best horse...1 can't get there due to track bias.2nd or 3rd best horse wins race.You don't judge a racetrack by doing what you just did.You find the horse who was best.Then discover why he doesn't come 1st,and it's because the track favors others.People do exactly what you did(say the winner came off the pace etc.,) and then play other good raters(thinking they can get up.)They will get beat by random horses in the right place at the right time.I can deal with any track they give me,but once they oscillate like this it's like a bad painting that people try things with.A lil here,and a lil there,but it's not "right."

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

With all due respect, Gomez blew this one. The fractions were much slower than his last race (1/2 Furlong shorter) and he was outrun TWICE today was he was in that one on the backstretch. Why in the world is this horse, coming off a sprint, significantly OUTRUN by horses coming off routes? Then, he's so wide on the turn that he disappears for the stretch run, coming into the picture a few strides before the wire. What a joke of a ride. I mean, how does a jock have the balls to face the connections after a ride like that?

This is what happens whenever there is an obvious bias.People look to tell people it ain't the case.I'm gunna tell ya again that this horse is easily best,and the reason he isn't close in mid race is the track is against him.Gomez will get up on a fair track with that much horse.Even if he makes mistakes.He is that good on a rater who is willing.See,this is SOCAL HORSERACING.They have a biased track today.They will have 3 days to get it back.It will probably be better Thursday,and people will say it wasn't biased Monday.It's gunna vary back n' forth now.The only reason I mention this stuff is cuz I know why people get beat.People say "they can't pick a winner" Well,you can pick the best horse,and it's not gunna win if the track is against him.Then they start trying to cap for the surface,and the track changes,or the jocks start adjusting inconsistently.Then they are told the track isn't biased etc...........Wait for a fair track,or you gunna be messed up.Wait until the best horse can get up.Then play.If you don't then I can tell you what you will say:"I'M TAKING A BREAK FOR A WHILE."

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

This is what happens whenever there is an obvious bias.People look to tell people it ain't the case.I'm gunna tell ya again that this horse is easily best,and the reason he isn't close in mid race is the track is against him.Gomez will get up on a fair track with that much horse.Even if he makes mistakes.He is that good on a rater who is willing.See,this is SOCAL HORSERACING.They have a biased track today.They will have 3 days to get it back.It will probably be better Thursday,and people will say it wasn't biased Monday.It's gunna vary back n' forth now.The only reason I mention this stuff is cuz I know why people get beat.People say "they can't pick a winner" Well,you can pick the best horse,and it's not gunna win if the track is against him.Then they start trying to cap for the surface,and the track changes,or the jocks start adjusting inconsistently.Then they are told the track isn't biased etc...........Wait for a fair track,or you gunna be messed up.Wait until the best horse can get up.Then play.If you don't then I can tell you what you will say:"I'M TAKING A BREAK FOR A WHILE."

gomez thought he had more horse and didnt..you say this isnt fair ect why do you say it is not fair when front runners win/ the 8 in race 7 off the pace types win the 2 in race 9 and pressers win the 1 in race 1.. this surface is fair .. the aq inner last year was not fair ..but people adjusted to it....the best horse is a very broad statment..and therefore not exact in what we are talking about imo

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

gomez thought he had more horse and didnt..you say this isnt fair ect why do you say it is not fair when front runners win/ the 8 in race 7 off the pace types win the 2 in race 9 and pressers win the 1 in race 1.. this surface is fair .. the aq inner last year was not fair ..but people adjusted to it....the best horse is a very broad statment..and therefore not exact in what we are talking about imo

You can't adjust to it.The reason is because jocks all start riding different races than they normally would(on a fair track.)You can handicap horses on a fair track,but not on a speed biased track.You just guess,and try to cap for something,and the jocks try to ride against that something.Guys start taking horses to the lead unexpectedly,and you have to take short odds on speed horses that now may not get the easy lead they would of got.I know what your saying,but in practice,it's much easier to win on a fair track.I told you people that Churchill was messed up by a huge inside bias on Breeders cup day.Most of ya denied,denied.Street Sense was best that day.He likes Churchill.He won the Derby too.It still doesn't explain his acting like he got on a motorcycle that day on the rail.He never did that again.That margin of victory was caused by bias.So,don't f'n tell me there ain't bias.If I bring it up,it's not some excuse.It's information.It's really not as hard to detect as people make it seem.Really all you have to do is look how far back good raters are in sprints.The same rater will be varying distances behind the same exact horses.On a speed biased track that distance will be much larger than on a track like last Thursday.The same rater will be much closer on the turn than he would be on a speed biased track.It's simple observation. These tracks vary a lot,and it determines who wins...a lot.It is important...a whole lot.Jocks start doing weird stuff on biased tracks,and you can't cap people nearly as easily as horses.Do you remember the Cherokee horse that won with Flores up? That was about 2 weeks ago.Compare that race to his race on November 4th.He was the best horse on Nov. 4th,but because of track bias,he was very far back,and couldn't quite get up.Given the fair track 2 weeks ago,he is able to be much closer up on the turn,and the best horse wins instead of running 2nd or 3rd.There were 3 horses hurt most today by bias.Given a fair track,2 of them will win,and the 3rd can win.They are the Royals Court,FOXY SOX,and The Rye Man.So,lets let them show you people the difference between a fair track and a biased one.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by merasmag

u already say i'm retarded and you know i have add and can only see little parts of each race as it goes by...so: when u talk about the distance variance are u talkin lengths or furlongs?

No,I said you're almost retarded.In a sprint,if you had a very consistent speed horse,and a consistent rater,then you would see a big difference (in how far back the rater is on the turn)based on track condition.1)If the speed horse had a comfortable lone lead in a sprint....2)if he used the same exact effort each time, then 3) the rater would trail him on the turn by greatly different amounts based on whether the track was fair,speed-biased,or anti-speed.On a speed-biased track the rater would be sooo far back.On a fair track,the rater would be within reach of the leader,but have plenty left to do.On an anti-speed track,the rater would be fairly close up (even before going into the turn.)He would go by the leader as they came out of the turn.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Compare these 2 videos for Cherokee Tear

OSA 11/4/2007 race 7 ( very difficult day to get up from back...he was best though)


SA 12/31/2007 race 8 (easy win when given fair track to work with)

Please note on the backstretch there is a 18 length deficit to make up on nov 4th,and just 8 lengths on the race on 12-31......It is not all due to a faster pace(maybe a couple lengths are due to that.)