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#1
12-07-2007, 06:03 AM
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12/8: HOL (G1) Turf Cup; (G3) Native Diver
5th (2:32) Hollywood Turf Cup S. (G1)
1 1/2 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000 1 Obrigado (FR) Talamo J 126 L 2 Champs Elysees (GB) Leparoux J R 126 3 Sunriver Gomez G K 126 L 4 Tissy Fit Potts C L 126 L 5 Heroi Do Bafra (BRZ) Bejarano R 126 L 6 Chief Running Bear Nakatani C S 126 L 7 Spring House Baze T C 126 L 8 Sudan (IRE) Valenzuela P A 126 9th (4:35) Native Diver H. (G3) 1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000 1 Ravel Gomez G K 116 L 2 Hello Sunday (FR) Leparoux J R 116 L 3 Arson Squad Solis A 120 L 4 Buzzards Bay Valdivia J Jr 120 L 5 Isipingo Gryder A T 116 6 Wanna Runner Baze T C 116 Blk-On L 7 Masterpiece (ARG) Quinonez A 115 L 8 Racketeer Bejarano R 114 L 9 Heatseeker (IRE) Baze M C 115 L 10 Bold Chieftain Baze R A 118 L
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#4
12-07-2007, 04:50 PM
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What's with all the races being taken off the turf at HOL lately?
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#5
12-07-2007, 04:52 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
12-07-2007, 05:01 PM
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__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#8
12-07-2007, 09:48 PM
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On the other hand, his last two works over the track seem strong, and Dollase's numbers on synthetic are quite good. I always think it is tough to figure out where these horses that press the pace in long turf races will sit when they move off the turf AND cut way back in distance. I assume he will be well back, and since he hasn't seemed to do well in that scenario in the past, I think I am going to toss him....but he wouldn't shock me.
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#9
12-07-2007, 10:56 PM
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 i like how he is coming up to the race, he has been sharp on turf from a mile to 1.5 miles, competitive with horses like Crossing The Line, Becrux, and The Tin Man. he'll be a price because he has only raced on turf. his recent Hol works are sharp too.
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#10
12-08-2007, 03:25 PM
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This Native Diver race is too hard for me. Ravel, Racketeer, and Bold Chieftan look equally strong to me as the 3 win candidates. Bold Cheiftan looks pretty enticing at 8-1 or whatever he goes off at, but each of them are vulnerable. I don't think Hello Sunday is a winner. If Headley has Arson Squad any sharper he will burst into flames, yet he still doesn't seem to be primed for a win on this surface. Isipingo is a good animal, and will face much more pace than on turf, but isn't the worst alternative. Buzzards Bay probably didn't like the track at GG or Del Mar, or is he going out of form...
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#11
12-08-2007, 06:50 PM
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Damn! I absolutely loved Racketeer at 8/1 in this spot. I bet him to win and used him in exacta boxes with several others.....but not the 9.
After going back and looking at the past performances, it isn't like the 9 horse came out of nowhere. Every time he has been on synthetic he has posted numbers similiar to these, and his one trip over this track was a very solid effort (95 beyer) going 8.5 furlongs. I have no idea why I tossed him....especially considering he was 30/1. If I look back at the past perfomances and see that the horse that beat me really came out of nowhere....fine. But when I look back and see that I missed out on a big payoff ($1 exacta paid $231.30) because I simply did a sloppy job of handicapping, it really pisses me off. Damn!
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#12
12-08-2007, 08:04 PM
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Initially I loved the form for Heatseeker - he was stretching out after running evenly in a classy 6.5 downhill... had back form on the cushion track, and stretching out with the right pedigree - However , watching the replay of the Morvich, Heatseaker was turning his head badly at the end, and that turned me off. One of the rare times that studying the video will negate a nice job of reading the form.
This was a tough race to handicap and wager.
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#13
12-08-2007, 08:43 PM
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It was a tough race, but for someone to go deep in that race (like I did) and not use that horse is just bad handicapping. Hollendorfer's numbers off a layoff, going turf to synthetic, and going sprint to route are all tremendous. The horse goes 46&4 for 4 furlongs (2/47) over this track on Wednesday, is very cometitive from a speed figure standpoint, and they send him off at 30/1....and I miss it. I thought Racketeer would run a good race today at 8/1, and he did. But I managed to screw myself out of a big exacta score by not doing a thorough enough job of handicapping. Sorry to go on and on about this stupid race....but I'm really pissed at myself.
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#14
12-08-2007, 09:21 PM
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Linear Mode
