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#1
07-16-2006, 09:00 AM
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Tom Fool
Excellent race. Most importantly, Anew has zero chance. His performance on Belmont day came in the midst of a monsterous run where Assmussen won with 9 or 18 starters at Belmont where a number of horses ran far better than their pps indicated was possible. Since beginning the suspension the barn has hardly been on fire and Assmussen won, I believe, only one race at Belmont post Belmont Stakes Day. Anew also benefited from being loose on a track that was extremely kind to speed. He also beat a pretty suspect crew that day and meets FAR tougher today while also attempting to stretch out to seven furlongs. I don't believe he'll get the lead from War Front and I wouldn't use him in a superfecta if they had one.
Now, Silver Train can obviously win, but the inside isn't a great post for him positionally, and I still think his wins are somewhat illusionary. He walked on the lead in a nothing field in the Jerome, He got a perfect trip in the BC Sprint and was CLEARLY second best considering Taste of Paradise's trip and he took advantage of a track that was kind to speed in the Met Mile to hold off Sun King, who may be my favorite horse, but he's hardly a world beater. I realize Silver Train has run good races but he is nowhere near as good as his pps indicate at a rough glance. I'll use him but won't fear betting against. If War Front can establish the lead over Anew, which I think he will as he's faster, he could prove very dangerous. His last race at Gulfstream was terrific. He battled in a suicidal pace and still almost won. And, I think Big Apple Daddy has a chance as well, though not as good a one as War Front, as if the race falls apart he may be the likeliest closer. He seems to have improved in learning to relax. Good luck....don't fall for Anew. His run is over. 
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#2
07-16-2006, 09:32 AM
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I couldnt agree with your analysis more. War Front is a horse who I was told "was the best horse in my stabe in many years" by Allen Jerkens over the winter and got hurt. He was pointing to the Carter before he injured himself. This horse is as talented as any in the race but do you think he may need one?
I agree that Anew will not even make the lead in here and get tired chasing War Front, I dont think Anew hits the board. Then what happens? Is War Front conditioned enough to be able to hold off Silver Train and possibly Big Apple Daddy and Sir Greeley, who all 3 could get perfect mid pack trips? All depends on the price. I think War Front is a good risk if he is 9/2 or higher. Silver Train scares me to death in here because of his love for this track and his gameness. Big Apple Daddy showed a lot in the Carter, not disgracing himself against top company. Great race!
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#4
07-16-2006, 09:40 AM
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I like the horse Anew but I think the time to play him was last time at 5/1 in a field that lacked any monsters. All he had to do was make the lead and hold off a horse (Tiger) who he thumped badly over the winter. Scuds was smart enough to tout and play him that day. That was clearly his wedding. Today I fear he burns a lot of money.
Silver Train aids in the prices of horses like War Front and Big Apple Daddy, but hes so scary from off the pace, especially if Anew makes life miserable for the first off 5 month layoff War Front. I'd need 9/2 or higher to roll the dice on War Front.
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#5
07-16-2006, 09:42 AM
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Big Apple Daddy can win too, but I see his chances a lot more lower than War Fronts. Not only does there have to be a huge pace collapse, but Big Apple Daddy has to outfinish both Silver Train and Sir Greeley who would benefit from a pace collapse just as much as Big Apple would.
War Front could get brave on the lead, especially if Anew doesnt fire. I like his chances at the win 3 times more than Big Apple Daddys.
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#6
07-16-2006, 09:43 AM
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