|
|
 |
|
#2
07-19-2007, 08:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
speed doesn't stick, regardless of the surface (only 2 maybe 3 gate to wire winners from what i have scene) -bt- 
|
|
#3
07-19-2007, 08:48 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
My only consistent impression is just like Kee and Arlington, but I only watched half the day: "fit" horses finish well, no matter their style. Speed doesn't carry by a gifted rock-hard rail, it had better be "true" turn of foot, and the horse had better be fit for the distance, too. It seems like horses tire on it more quickly, to my eyes, if they are questionable.
Race 1 - 1 turn mile: 1st and 2nd chalkfest - 1st was a deep closer (from last in the field to first) but this is that horses known running style, it was third off a layoff after 2 sprints, and clearly stood out over this field speed- and class-wise as the favorite and 2nd favorite. Race 2 - another chalkfest. 1 mile, maiden 40K claimers - speed (7-1) led through most of the race, just nipped at the wire by (2-1) stalker, then 3rd was 7-5 and fourth 9-2. Race 3 - 1 1/16 miles, 10K claimers. Surprise! 65-1 shot with lower speed figure (but a strong finish figure) wins. I couldn't see that coming  but this is 10K maiden claimers ... Speed didn't hold over 2 turns. I think second place was 9/2, then third 5-1 and fourth 7-1. Talmos speedy front-runner collapsed, if I recall correctly.Race 4 - 5 1/2 furlong sprint, 100K maiden claimers. Nakatani brings home my stalker for a nice finish to my day. I didn't see the rest of the card. I have no problems with artificial surfaces. They are not all the same from track to track (like dirt, like turf), but they maintain a bit more similarity day to day at a particular track vs dirt (my impression). It's just another track idiosyncrasy to learn. I was thinking today, that if you closed your eyes, you wouldn't know if it were a dirt or synthetic surface race. I like it - bigger fields, bigger handle, bigger payoffs if you find the overlooked horse. I suspect my opinion is the minority 
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
|
|
#7
07-19-2007, 09:28 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.
People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track. They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet. * The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race. * In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction. (Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible." * Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta. That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta. * Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98 Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...
|
|
#8
07-19-2007, 09:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I only wagered on the first three races on opening day and had great success.
Hopefully the track will favor people like me who can't handicap.
|
|
#9
07-19-2007, 09:34 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#10
07-19-2007, 09:46 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.
Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
|
|
#11
07-19-2007, 10:12 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Nakatani seems to be hot .
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2hFZ8KnsSo
|
|
#12
07-20-2007, 01:23 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
My recommendation for a first trip to Del Mar is to not take the wagering too seriously. Just soak up the atmosphere, and play the races without getting too serious on the cash invested. Del Mar is too special of an experience to have "marred" by regretted lost wagers. That was my tactic in my days there last August.....played fun and light. Last day I opened the wallet a little wider after I had already chalked the trip up to "great." http://www.bullysdelmar.com/ I truly have no vested interest in this place, but if one likes to have tasty dinners and appetizers in an ultra casual atmosphere up until midnight, I highly recommend. Hungry one night about 11PM, my wife and I ventured in. With a glass of Napa cabernet, the sauteed mushrooms and onion soup really hit the spot. My wife raved about her very reasonably priced steak. Besides the good food, there is a very appropriate amount of "horsey stuff" in the decor. Makes me wanna go back down there!
|
|
#13
07-20-2007, 01:36 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Handicappers develop individual style. I think we find the most success at tracks that play into one's methodology of handicapping (the manner in which we anticipate how races will run, interpret stats and data, etc.)
There are quite accomplished handicappers who don't care to wager on turf, or on maidens, etc., because they simply don't find success there. We say, "I just can't read that," so avoid it. Synthetic is just another varient. I think one's enjoyment of wagering (financial success) at a particular location is more dependent upon that location (surface, type of race, population of horses) slotting comfortably into our individual style of handicapping than we probably realize.
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
|
|
#14
07-20-2007, 01:48 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Quote:
 Happens every first Saturday in May, too ....Cannon made a comment last Polythread, I believe, thought he said his impression training was that horses do not tire over it as readily as dirt (opposite of what I think I observe) We're speed-crazy (2-year-old in training sales supports this contention). Look at the times for all distances over the past 100 years, how they improved to a certain extent, then stayed relatively stagnant. It's not how fast you run, what matters is that you are fastest that race.
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
|
|
#15
07-20-2007, 01:51 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
My opinion of polytrack so far has nothing to do with handicapping judgements.
It hasn't appeared on the circuits I've always really focused on. Not all handicappers love horse racing, in fact, most don't. I love watching top class horse racing on both original surfaces. I'm a fan of quite a few different sports...but I would unquestionably watch a top class race I didn't have a bet in, before any different sport. If a top class horse race on polytrack I had no bet in was running the same time a competitive bowling match was in late frames....I'd have a very tough decision on my hands.....and bowling is probably my 9th favorite sport to watch.
|
|
#16
07-20-2007, 01:55 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?
|
|
#17
07-20-2007, 02:02 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Maybe they'd all come over to horse racing (after the late-running bowling tourney is over and the Grade 1 can be televised  )
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
|
|
#18
07-20-2007, 02:06 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Edit: that statement is as overtly simplistic as it seems, DrugS, in the sense that I don't particularly care what raw times are - I just want to find the fastest horse that day, that track. The discussions by the professional figure makers (Brown, Beyer, etc) last year regarding how they were going to deal with artificial surfaces within the context of their figure making are obviously critical to those of us who use those products.
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts Last edited by Riot : 07-20-2007 at 02:20 AM.
|
|
#19
07-20-2007, 02:18 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Yes, but you brought up comparing different tracks and different surfaces.
The fractions I compared, occured on the same surface, at the same track, on the same day.
|
|
#20
07-20-2007, 02:30 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
By saying that you don't care what those raw fractions are---you are saying that you think pace is a meaningless handicapping factor---and it has no impact at all on the outcome of a horse race. It might seem as though I'm giving you a hard time, but by dismissing those fractions, you are basically saying pace doesn't matter. Obviously, the best way to judge pace is to compare fractions with those in other similar races, on the same surface and card.
|
Linear Mode
