Third Off Layoff

pmacdaddy · #1 05-06-2007, 05:28 PM

In the last two days I haver had three of four in two nice pick 4's foiled by Third Off Layoff horses. Today's late at BEL and 7-10 at CD yesterday (Appealing Mystery-BEL and Hystericalady - CD)

Both winners crossed my mind, but with the exception of being third off they didn't figure to be the winner in my eyes.

Question is, just how powerful is this angle??? Or maybe it's just coincidence...

Thanks

blackthroatedwind · #2 05-06-2007, 05:30 PM

Like anything it's situational but it sure seems worth paying attention to.

I think the 9 horse in the 7th might have had a bigger impact if she got clear running room but it's open to interpretation.

somerfrost · #3 05-06-2007, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

In the last two days I haver had three of four in two nice pick 4's foiled by Third Off Layoff horses. Today's late at BEL and 7-10 at CD yesterday (Appealing Mystery-BEL and Hystericalady - CD)

Both winners crossed my mind, but with the exception of being third off they didn't figure to be the winner in my eyes.

Question is, just how powerful is this angle??? Or maybe it's just coincidence...

Thanks

It's an old angle, oldtimers at the track use to swear by it as many trainers figured two preps and then the target race, often they run two sprints then move up to a distance for the score. I think it's weakened a bit by training methodology employed today...many trainers will train a horse up to the target race or use a single prep but it's always good to study the pp's of the first two starts for hidden signs (ie: fast internal fractions) that a horse is being brought to top form.

golfer · #4 05-06-2007, 05:38 PM

You'll probably get better responses than this, but to me, 3rd off the layoff is a valuable angle if the first two have been subpar to what the horse was running previous to the layoff. I don't like betting horses (other than Frankel or Pletcher, for the most part) off of layoffs. They are more likely to be stronger 2nd out, and if not, then 3rd out...
As far as yesterday's Hysterical Lady is concerned, using TG numbers, her most recent start at Baymeadows was more than competitive in that race, and in fact was her career best. She wasn't a single, but was certainly capable of winning (for some foolish reason I played Sweet Fervor).

golfer · #5 05-06-2007, 05:41 PM

As I was typing out my response, you got 2 better responses

Andy, which horse was it that dumped the jockey behind the gate, was announced to have run off (we couldn't see anything on the television), then somehow loaded moments later and ran?

blackthroatedwind · #6 05-06-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

As I was typing out my response, you got 2 better responses

Andy, which horse was it that dumped the jockey behind the gate, was announced to have run off (we couldn't see anything on the television), then somehow loaded moments later and ran?

I didn't see that.

Pedigree Ann · #7 05-06-2007, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

She wasn't a single, but was certainly capable of winning (for some foolish reason I played Sweet Fervor).

You and me both. The track was a bit funky in that middle part of the afternoon, not enough moisture to still be muddy but not fast yet either. I wasn't sure HL would be as effective around one turn as around 2, but it turned out that stamina was needed in this race and the previous one. (Appealing Zophie stopped like she'd hit a wall.)

golfer · #8 05-06-2007, 05:48 PM

It was Tessa Blue in the 7th (another of my "mistakes"). I played Sweet Fervor, but didn't notice the rough trip.

blackthroatedwind · #9 05-06-2007, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

It was Tessa Blue in the 7th (another of my "mistakes"). I played Sweet Fervor, but didn't notice the rough trip.

Neither Tessa Blue nor Sweet Fervor had tough trips...the former loomed on the turn and was empty and the latter never picked up a hoof. I used them both.

golfer · #10 05-06-2007, 05:51 PM

While I've got your attention, any thoughts on Einstein? He was my BIGGEST wager and BIGGEST mistake of the day.

blackthroatedwind · #11 05-06-2007, 05:54 PM

He was my biggest mistake as well.

He just never ran a step. His previous races were too good to say yesterday's race was a true barometer of his ability. Maybe I overestimated him, but his last two races were terrific, and I am hoping he is sound and returns in the Manhattan on Belmont Day.

pmacdaddy · #12 05-06-2007, 05:59 PM

Thanks for replies.

Think I will start to do some work evaluating third off horses as part of my handicapping exercise.

At least I'm starting to get close on a lot of these... Believe this forum has helped me lots.