Derby (Liquidity thoughts?)

[hemaih]

For some reason Liquidity really stands out as a contender in the Derby to me. I have been reading everyone's posts and you all seem very knowledgeable so I would appreciate any thoughts or opinions on this horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

His one lifetime win came over an EXTREMELY speed biased track at Santa Anita, in his career debut. He took advantage of the bias that day.

He sat a good trip in the SA Derby, and had no excuse for not hitting the board as the tepid favorite in what was a low-rated running of that race.

It's hard to talk people off of extreme longshots---but, even in a year like this, when the crop is unarguably weak and no one stands out---I'd be shocked if Liquidity won the race.

[ateamstupid]

To me, he looks like he doesn't want any part of ten furlongs, being unable to seal the deal at shorter distances over and over again. On top of that, he's trained by O'Neill, whose runners I don't trust to do ANYTHING outside of California.

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His one lifetime win came over an EXTREMELY speed biased track at Santa Anita, in his career debut. He took advantage of the bias that day.

He sat a good trip in the SA Derby, and had no excuse for not hitting the board as the tepid favorite in what was a low-rated running of that race.

It's hard to talk people off of extreme longshots---but, even in a year like this, when the crop is unarguably weak and no one stands out---I'd be shocked if Liquidity won the race.

Just to play "Devil's Advocate" - didn't Street Sense win the BCJ on a speed biased rail at Churchill Downs last Fall? Is it possible that the rail could be similar in two weeks and if Liquidity gets an inside post he could ride the rail to a win?

Do I think this will happen - probably not, but I'm currently thinking there really aren't a lot you can throw out if you're playing exotics in the Derby - until we see the post draw and the horses works/demeanor leading up to Cinco De Mayo, I'm still trying to figure out how this race may play out...

On the other hand, I agree that O'Neill does not ship them "ready"... but I said that about Jerry Hollendorfer until Tricky Trevor

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

Just to play "Devil's Advocate" - didn't Street Sense win the BCJ on a speed biased rail at Churchill Downs last Fall? Is it possible that the rail could be similar in two weeks and if Liquidity gets an inside post he could ride the rail to a win?

Street Sense won the Juvie over a rail-favoring track---it certainly wasn't a speed biased track. However, the sensational pace setup he had, was probably more important than the fact he raced on the rail every step of the way.

Even if there is a path bias in the Derby---I highly doubt it will be strong enough to propel a horse like Liquidity to victory. And, Dougie O'Neill plans to take him back, well of the pace, in the Derby---so he says anyway.

As for something A-Team said---I think this talk that O'Neill can't ship is a tremendous myth. Look at Thor's Echo for example. Mistical Plan and Notional both won major races at FG for him. He can ship.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

As for something A-Team said---I think this talk that O'Neill can't ship is a tremendous myth. Look at Thor's Echo for example. Mistical Plan and Notional both won major races at FG for him. He can ship.

For every O'Neill horse that runs decently outside of California, I can give you one that ran like ass. I don't trust California horses in general outside of California, but especially ones from him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

For every O'Neill horse that runs decently outside of California, I can give you one that ran like ass. I don't trust California horses in general outside of California, but especially ones from him.

Other than Lava Man---which horses of his are you reffering to?

Thor's Echo was a pretty nice price in the Sprint I believe---and he also won the Grade 1 De Francis with disdainful ease--he couldn't seem to buy a stake win in California.

[hemaih]

Thanks Guys.... Also Indomitable DrugS do you have some kind of connection to Monmouth Park? I live 30 minutes from there

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hemaih

Thanks Guys.... Also Indomitable DrugS do you have some kind of connection to Monmouth Park? I live 30 minutes from there

I guess I'm obligated to ask if you're really a weanling.

I have a friend who's been begging me to pay him a visit at Monmouth Park, he and his family own horses that have raced there for a long time. But no, I live in Western PA.

[Bobby Fischer]

Liquidity is certainly very well bred.
Although you look at him and he does not jump out at you visually.
Nakatani and Liquidity haven't really clicked at all. - Hes ridden the horse 3 times and is just now noticing that this is a one paced runner. The aggressive early run before the turn is not Liquidity's strong suit. Flores back on isn't really a negative switch in this specific case. Very little style has been developed other than pressing the lead, although he has shown that he can rate. Two poor showings out of California and is trained by O'Neill. Also some worry that he peaked in the futurity at 2yo and Holywood cushion track may be the prefered surface.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Other than Lava Man---which horses of his are you reffering to?

Thor's Echo was a pretty nice price in the Sprint I believe---and he also won the Grade 1 De Francis with disdainful ease--he couldn't seem to buy a stake win in California.

I think Thor's Echo is the exception to the rule. Cobalt Blue, Liquidity ran okay at FG, but stunk it up in the Champagne, you remember a filly name Andujar? Those are a few that come to mind in addition to Lava Man.

[cakes44]

Teuflesberg used to be my pick to finish last when I didn't think Liquidity would actually be pointed to the Derby. Liquidity is now my current pick to finish last.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Other than Lava Man---which horses of his are you reffering to?

Thor's Echo was a pretty nice price in the Sprint I believe---and he also won the Grade 1 De Francis with disdainful ease--he couldn't seem to buy a stake win in California.

All his horses out of state seem to be able to get a mile to a mile and a sixteenth. Can you think of the last time he's had a horse win outside of California at a mile and an eighth or longer? Lava Man has tired everytime he has been out of state, Liquidity has tired both times out of state, Cobalt Blue was a disaster, even Notional and Great Hunter had their kicks dulled. I know I'll be playing against O'Neill horses at 9+ furlongs outside of California until I see an exception to the rule.