Look for Malibu Moon to Step Up

[Rupert Pupkin]

The Malibu Moon 2 year olds that I have seen this year at the sales have been absolutely awesome. I couldn't figure why his horses look so good this year. Then I realized that 2005 was the year he moved to Kentucky, so this is is his first crop of two year olds since he started standing in Kentucky. The quality of mares he got in Kentucky was 100x better than what he was getting in Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if his stud fee moves up into the $75,000-$100,000 range in a couple of years. His 2 year olds this year look awesome and the mares he got for this crop are much better than what he got in Maryland, but not nearly as good as the mares he got the next year. He got even much better mares after DM got the Eclispe, but the offspring from those mares are only yearlings this year. So I would expect his 2 year olds next year to look even better than this year.

At the 2 year old sales this year, I was impressed with the babies of several first-year sires. A couple of the sires whose 2 year olds worked really well this year at the first few sales were Harlan's Holiday and Empire Maker. Based on what I have seen so far, I would expect these sires to do well. Granted I am giving my opinion based on a limited sample.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Malibu Moon 2 year olds that I have seen this year at the sales have been absolutely awesome. I couldn't figure why his horses look so good this year. Then I realized that 2005 was the year he moved to Kentucky, so this is is his first crop of two year olds since he started standing in Kentucky. The quality of mares he got in Kentucky was 100x better than what he was getting in Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if his stud fee moves up into the $100,000 range in a couple of years. His 2 year olds this year look awesome and the mares he got for this crop are much better than what he got in Maryland, but not nearly as good as the mares he got the next year. He got even much better mares after DM got the Eclispe, but the offspring from those mares are only yearlings this year. So I would expect his 2 year olds next year to look even better than this year.

At the 2 year old sales this year, I was impressed with the babies of several first-year sires. A couple of the sires whose 2 year olds worked really well this year at the first few sales were Harlan's Holiday and Empire Maker. Based on what I have seen so far, I would expect these sires to do well. Granted I am giving my opinion based on a limited sample.

He can get a good looking horse but they will have to start doing a bit more running in the graded races before they think about raising his fee. He is ok at $40k but he better get his yearling averages up or he will get lost in the first year stallion shuffle.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He can get a good looking horse but they will have to start doing a bit more running in the graded races before they think about raising his fee. He is ok at $40k but he better get his yearling averages up or he will get lost in the first year stallion shuffle.

The Mailbu Moons were working great and selling for big numbers at the 2 year old sales this year. At the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale, one MM filly sold for $360,000 and another one sold for $400,000. At the Barrett's Sale, he had one that sold for $450,000 and at the Ocala March sale, he had one that sold for $400,000.

When they're selling that good at the 2 year old sales, the price of his yearlings will go way up next year.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Mailbu Moons were working great and selling for big numbers at the 2 year old sales this year. At the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale, one MM filly sold for $360,000 and another one sold for $400,000. At the Barrett's Sale, he had one that sold for $450,000 and at the Ocala March sale, he had one that sold for $400,000.

When they're selling that good at the 2 year old sales, the price of his yearlings will go way up next year.

There is no direct correlation from 2 year old sales the year before and the following years yearling sales. There is a correlation between horses running well and the value of same stallion offspring rising.

I agree with Canon. They better start running. Also, if he moved to KY in 2005 meant those weren't born until 2006 and would be yearlings now. So, I think his 2007 two year olds are probably mostly from Maryland mares.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Mailbu Moons were working great and selling for big numbers at the 2 year old sales this year. At the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale, one MM filly sold for $360,000 and another one sold for $400,000. At the Barrett's Sale, he had one that sold for $450,000 and at the Ocala March sale, he had one that sold for $400,000.

When they're selling that good at the 2 year old sales, the price of his yearlings will go way up next year.

However in the sales fantasyland 400k horses are not really high enough to drive up the price too much. If the pinhookers see that as a ceiling of sorts it will limit how much they will go for a yearling. They do not want to pay 300k for a horse and not be able to get more than 400k. One big problem that I see and have heard from other sellers is that there just arent enough buyers to support the middle market horses anymore. It seems like everybody is selling these days, even guys that were just racehorse buyers. The big horses will still go to the upper level buyers and the cheap market is always going to be there but with stud fees in KY still above where they should be it is hard to get a decent number for a middle of the road horse. People simply have too much money in horses with a shrinking pool of buyers.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

There is no direct correlation from 2 year old sales the year before and the following years yearling sales. There is a correlation between horses running well and the value of same stallion offspring rising.

I agree with Canon. They better start running. Also, if he moved to KY in 2005 meant those weren't born until 2006 and would be yearlings now. So, I think his 2007 two year olds are probably mostly from Maryland mares.

MM moved to Kentucky in 2004.

I haven't checked any studies to see what the correlation is betwen the sales of 2 year olds and yearlings but common sense says that there would definitley be a high correlation in both directions. If you are a pinhooker, you are obviously going to be willing to go higher on MM yearlings next year when you saw how well the MM 2 year olds were selling this year. I do some pinhooking, and I know that I am going to be willing to go higher on yearlings by a sire whose offspring are selling well at the 2 year old sales. That's what a pinhooker does. He buys yearlings that he thinks will sell well at the 2 year old sales.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

However in the sales fantasyland 400k horses are not really high enough to drive up the price too much. If the pinhookers see that as a ceiling of sorts it will limit how much they will go for a yearling. They do not want to pay 300k for a horse and not be able to get more than 400k. One big problem that I see and have heard from other sellers is that there just arent enough buyers to support the middle market horses anymore. It seems like everybody is selling these days, even guys that were just racehorse buyers. The big horses will still go to the upper level buyers and the cheap market is always going to be there but with stud fees in KY still above where they should be it is hard to get a decent number for a middle of the road horse. People simply have too much money in horses with a shrinking pool of buyers.

Yes, that is true. The market is really hit and miss right now. A $50,000-$60,000 stud fee on MM may be more reasonable. But as you said, the key is winning some graded races. If MM offspring start winning some big races, the stud fee will go way up in a hurry. I am expecting to see them win some big races too. Some of these 2 year olds that I saw could really run.

By the way, it seems like most of the pinhookers complain every year and say that they will not spend as much the following year. But when the following year comes, they spend more than ever. To me there is simply not a big enough market in the $500,000-$1 million range to be buying yearlings for $250,000 a piece. That's just too much money. The $50,000-$100,000 makes much more sense to me.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Malibu Moon 2 year olds that I have seen this year at the sales have been absolutely awesome. I couldn't figure why his horses look so good this year. Then I realized that 2005 was the year he moved to Kentucky, so this is is his first crop of two year olds since he started standing in Kentucky. The quality of mares he got in Kentucky was 100x better than what he was getting in Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if his stud fee moves up into the $75,000-$100,000 range in a couple of years. His 2 year olds this year look awesome and the mares he got for this crop are much better than what he got in Maryland, but not nearly as good as the mares he got the next year. He got even much better mares after DM got the Eclispe, but the offspring from those mares are only yearlings this year. So I would expect his 2 year olds next year to look even better than this year.

At the 2 year old sales this year, I was impressed with the babies of several first-year sires. A couple of the sires whose 2 year olds worked really well this year at the first few sales were Harlan's Holiday and Empire Maker. Based on what I have seen so far, I would expect these sires to do well. Granted I am giving my opinion based on a limited sample.

That is correct sir. I can't wait to see what the Malibu Moons, Empire Makers, and Harlans Holidays do on the track this year. So far, they are working great. Nice hosses. The Empire Makers may be a little slow to come along because of the way that they move. They definitely look like routers. You know, most of the first crop sires' offspring look like they can run. I also like a few of the Posses and the Lightnin N Thunders are lightening quick. However, I'm especially interested in a certain Empire Maker filly and Malibu Moon colt though.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

That is correct sir.

Did you say, "That is correct sir" in the voice of Ed McMahon?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Did you say, "That is correct sir" in the voice of Ed McMahon?

Of course. What other way is there to say it?...lol.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Of course. What other way is there to say it?...lol.

LOL!

[blackthroatedwind]

Am I the only one who feels like he is sitting next to a couple on an cyber date?

I feel like i'm watching two people watch horses get it on. It's sexy.

[Cajungator26]

[PPerfectfan]

I think the MM's that I have seen are a picture. I think he will really have alot of nice runners this year. But what I am looking forward to are the PP yearlings!!!! I am dying for a picture of the PP/Folklore's dam baby. So if anyone has seen or heard anything, please let me know. Oh sorry PP-Pleasantly Perfect!! I just assume everyone will know who I am talking about.