3YO preps; who really was the best horse in each race

JJP · #1 03-19-2007, 11:05 PM

Ftn of Youth--Stormello. No question the pace was just too quick and fell apart in the final furlong. Still Stormello was narrowly beaten. IMO, his superiority was clear cut in that race.

Louisiana Derby--tougher call here. Circular Quay was certainly visually impressive but that was likely aided by the ultra quick pace set by Ketchikan. I can understand the argument for either side here.

San Felipe---slow pace crawlfest. Nice wide move by Air Commander. Cobalt Blue figures to be an underlay coming out of this race.

Tampa Bay Derby---Picture perfect trip for Street Sense. Fast pace in front of him, then Borel did the rail scrape. He looked like he'd pull away but Any Given Saturday was coming back at him. AGS also was closer to the fast pace and lost more ground than SS. Best: Any Given Saturday.

Rebel---Hands down, Curlin dominated here. This horse has the look of a legit Derby contender, IF they can keep his mind on his business.

Likely overbet next out: Cobalt Blue, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Street Sense

PPerfectfan · #2 03-19-2007, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Ftn of Youth--Stormello. No question the pace was just too quick and fell apart in the final furlong. Still Stormello was narrowly beaten. IMO, his superiority was clear cut in that race.

Louisiana Derby--tougher call here. Circular Quay was certainly visually impressive but that was likely aided by the ultra quick pace set by Ketchikan. I can understand the argument for either side here.

San Felipe---slow pace crawlfest. Nice wide move by Air Commander. Cobalt Blue figures to be an underlay coming out of this race.

Tampa Bay Derby---Picture perfect trip for Street Sense. Fast pace in front of him, then Borel did the rail scrape. He looked like he'd pull away but Any Given Saturday was coming back at him. AGS also was closer to the fast pace and lost more ground than SS. Best: Any Given Saturday.

Rebel---Hands down, Curlin dominated here. This horse has the look of a legit Derby contender, IF they can keep his mind on his business.

Likely overbet next out: Cobalt Blue, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Street Sense

I agree with you on Curlin in the Rebel. This is the first time I got the chance to watch him and was very impressed. but what about the Derby hoopla? Stormello was the star of the FOY to me also. But I have to kindly disagree with your opinion of the TBDerby. I think SS was the star. In my opinion toss out Cobalt Blue. I have never cared for Scat D. but he has done nothing but run great. And I really like CQuay. I really, really want to see Ravel run. But they one prep sucks.

boswd · #3 03-20-2007, 03:52 PM

I still can't understand why everyone was is soo impressed with Stormello, yes I give him props for fighting back after it looked like he was getting passed but imo It doesn't look like 1 1/4 is going to be his best distance. Not only did Scatt Daddy beat him but if this race was any longer No Biz would have beaten him too. Watch the race again, it looks like he doesn't have the extra in him for the classic distance. The 1 1/8 stakes races I think he'll be very competitive in.

randallscott35 · #4 03-20-2007, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boswd

I still can't understand why everyone was is soo impressed with Stormello, yes I give him props for fighting back after it looked like he was getting passed but imo It doesn't look like 1 1/4 is going to be his best distance. Not only did Scatt Daddy beat him but if this race was any longer No Biz would have beaten him too. Watch the race again, it looks like he doesn't have the extra in him for the classic distance. The 1 1/8 stakes races I think he'll be very competitive in.

I agree with this. I don't think the Florida crew is getting it done this year.

boswd · #5 03-20-2007, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree with this. I don't think the Florida crew is getting it done this year.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Scatt Daddy and No Biz build off of that race. I still would not count No biz out. I just watched that race again just now and he was charging at the end.

randallscott35 · #6 03-20-2007, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boswd

I guess we'll have to wait and see what Scatt Daddy and No Biz build off of that race. I still would not count No biz out. I just watched that race again just now and he was charging at the end.

Mirage from tiring horses in front of him.

Cajungator26 · #7 03-20-2007, 04:03 PM

It looks like Scat Daddy, Stormello and Notional will have a go at eachother in the Florida Derby, so we'll see how Stormello looks then.

#8 03-20-2007, 04:06 PM

Adore the Gold will beat all of them like a drum.

hockey2315 · #9 03-20-2007, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Adore the Gold will beat all of them like a drum.

Yup. . . I'm hoping for 5-1 on him. . .

lemoncrush · #10 03-20-2007, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Yup. . . I'm hoping for 5-1 on him. . .

I was just going to post the same thing...
I think he'll be the 4th or 5th betting choice, and will be a great value.
not sure if he'll beat them like a drum, but I expect a much better result (if he gets a better post this time around).

jpops757 · #11 03-20-2007, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Ftn of Youth--Stormello. No question the pace was just too quick and fell apart in the final furlong. Still Stormello was narrowly beaten. IMO, his superiority was clear cut in that race.

Louisiana Derby--tougher call here. Circular Quay was certainly visually impressive but that was likely aided by the ultra quick pace set by Ketchikan. I can understand the argument for either side here.

San Felipe---slow pace crawlfest. Nice wide move by Air Commander. Cobalt Blue figures to be an underlay coming out of this race.

Tampa Bay Derby---Picture perfect trip for Street Sense. Fast pace in front of him, then Borel did the rail scrape. He looked like he'd pull away but Any Given Saturday was coming back at him. AGS also was closer to the fast pace and lost more ground than SS. Best: Any Given Saturday.

Rebel---Hands down, Curlin dominated here. This horse has the look of a legit Derby contender, IF they can keep his mind on his business.

Likely overbet next out: Cobalt Blue, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Street Sense

You are not right about who was the best just who had the most excuses. The ones that won did so even if they had an excuse. The best ones win and dont look for excuses. Lack of talent will cause horses get into trouble and thus look for excuses.

GPK · #12 03-20-2007, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree with this. I don't think the Florida crew is getting it done this year.

Rand, like you, I am on Great Hunter...

#13 03-20-2007, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpops757

You are not right about who was the best just who had the most excuses. The ones that won did so even if they had an excuse. The best ones win and dont look for excuses. Lack of talent will cause horses get into trouble and thus look for excuses.

So why don't these "best ones" win every race? Please enlighten me.

randallscott35 · #14 03-20-2007, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Rand, like you, I am on Great Hunter...

He's the best I've seen so far and I liked him last year a bit.

But I'm not big on O'Neill so I'd rather not see him win the Derby.

#15 03-20-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He's the best I've seen so far and I liked him last year a bit.

But I'm not big on O'Neill so I'd rather not see him win the Derby.

I'm a fan of O'Neill but Churchill will be watching him like a hawk. He's an automatic toss.

GPK · #16 03-20-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He's the best I've seen so far and I liked him last year a bit.

But I'm not big on O'Neill so I'd rather not see him win the Derby.

Yeah..a different trainer would have me being a huge fan of this horse. Im not talking license plate changing fan...but a fan none the less

jjf1031 · #17 03-20-2007, 04:56 PM

Stormello was impressive carving out those fractions but have to believe that Gulf has been kind to inside speed.

Curlin was best in subpar Rebel. Nice move but strongly believe he is not Derby material with three max preps under his belt

Cobalt Blue led small paceless race wire to wire.

I likes SS race in TB Derby although he got a nice inside trip tailor made to Borels riding style again. Also like AGS effort and feel that this was strongest prep yet. SS far exceeded my expectations as i will admit tried to catch a straight AGS/Most Distinguished exacta

Maybe NBLS coming back was a mirage but fact then is that he was still running at end even though others were tiring.

Notional in RS might be best effort i have seen despite CQ incident

ArlJim78 · #18 03-20-2007, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Mirage from tiring horses in front of him.

what other type of close is there? what type of close is not a mirage?

randallscott35 · #19 03-20-2007, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what other type of close is there? what type of close is not a mirage?

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

jjf1031 · #20 03-20-2007, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

A horse that closes in 11 and 3 when the horse in front still runs 12 and 2....C'mon how about Jazil in the Wood last year....They collapsed in front of him.

perhaps his "late" run was also a product of him re focusing? Not sure but I guess we will find out in Wood with addition of blinkers