Closest you have come to the big score...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

ELA, I'm sorry I didn't come back to your question sooner.

You're right this is not a bet for everyone. Nor is it a matter of being a wimp. This, to the casual player, takes a whole lotta guts. On the other hand, for the pro, (and I'm not) this is common play, as they don't bet to place, ever. In this case, no, you don't make a place bet at all. Instead, you play, YOUR horse, straight, underneath the postime public choice for $100.

There are many occasions that this bet is not feasible, as there is no clear cut public choice at postime.

This is nuts. The whole basic problem with your strategy is that you assume the favorite will win if your longshot runs second. Huh, you are betting a lonshot b/c you think the favorite is vulnerable. So your favorite runs off the board, boosting the place price and you get nothing to show for it b/c that's the only horse you used on top. That is not how to use an exacta as a hedge.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

This is nuts. The whole basic problem with your strategy is that you assume the favorite will win if your longshot runs second. Huh, you are betting a lonshot b/c you think the favorite is vulnerable. So your favorite runs off the board, boosting the place price and you get nothing to show for it b/c that's the only horse you used on top. That is not how to use an exacta as a hedge.

Don't assume... you know what they say about assume "it makes an ass out of U and ME."

There's no whole basic problem with my strategy. Possibly go back and read what I wrote to ELA.

I am believing the chalk will outrun the longshot, as that is usually the result, day in, day out. That is why I put my longshot choice under the chalk on a straight exacta bet.

I've not said anything about the favorite being vulnerable. Not a word. And to box, as I stated as an option, that is not suitable to betting them straight, for $100.

The discussion was about place betting, and regarding longshot play.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

Don't assume... you know what they say about assume "it makes an ass out of U and ME."

There's no whole basic problem with my strategy. Possibly go back and read what I wrote to ELA.

I am believing the chalk will outrun the longshot, as that is usually the result, day in, day out. That is why I put my longshot choice under the chalk on a straight exacta bet.

I've not said anything about the favorite being vulnerable. Not a word. And to box, as I stated as an option, that is not suitable to betting them straight, for $100.

The discussion was about place betting, and regarding longshot play.

I read your posts, I know where you stand. You are clear. And I said nothing about boxing an exacta. You believe that the right play is to put the favorite on top of the longshot rather than betting that horse to place. I get it. It makes zero sense, but go right ahead.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I read your posts, I know where you stand. You are clear. And I said nothing about boxing an exacta. You believe that the right play is to put the favorite on top of the longshot rather than betting that horse to place. I get it. It makes zero sense, but go right ahead.

RS, go and take a look at today's result in Gulfstream's 6th race. The longshot ran second, behind the chalk. The chalk's odds were 1.50/1, the longshot's, 18.40/1. The $1. exacta paid $22.50. The place on the longshot paid $12.40 for $2.

Ok, you tell me which is gonna net you more, that $22.50 exacta played straight? Or that $12.40 place ticket? Now keep in mind too, you also lost the $50. you bet on him to win.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not sure I would suggest blindly using the favorite on top ONLY, but I once learned a valuable lesson from one of the game's greatest bettors. If you like a horse who's a big price, and your not thrilled with the favorite, but the exacta with the favorite on top of your horse is paying around $40, you must use that favorite on top for a significant portion of your play, as the favorite isn't whatever short price he is, but the key to $40 if your pick is good.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

RS, go and take a look at today's result in Gulfstream's 6th race. The longshot ran second, behind the chalk. The chalk's odds were 1.50/1, the longshot's, 18.40/1. The $1. exacta paid $22.50. The place on the longshot paid $12.40 for $2.

Ok, you tell me which is gonna net you more, that $22.50 exacta played straight? Or that $12.40 place ticket? Now keep in mind too, you also lost the $50. you bet on him to win.

You just don't get it. 9th Race on Sunday at GP, the place horse was 15-1 and ran second to a 9-1 shot. Instead of getting nothing back, you would've tripled your initial investment with a win/place bet(12.80). If you had done it your way you get nothing....If the favorite wins at a 30% clip on average you will lose over time. You can cite whatever race you want, and I'll find 4 that show that using a simple exacta with a favorite or a wheel for that matter is dumb.

[Scav]

I was 5 for 5 in that huge Fairplex pick six in 2006 and had two horses in the last leg and ran 2nd and 3rd, lost to a horse that I mentioned and to a Los Al rider I have made a killing on wagering. Cost me, another $128 and I have 70k

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You just don't get it. 9th Race on Sunday at GP, the place horse was 15-1 and ran second to a 9-1 shot. Instead of getting nothing back, you would've tripled your initial investment with a win/place bet(12.80). If you had done it your way you get nothing....If the favorite wins at a 30% clip on average you will lose over time. You can cite whatever race you want, and I'll find 4 that show that using a simple exacta with a favorite or a wheel for that matter is dumb.

And I will see far less 15/1 with 9/1 exactas, than I'll see 1/1 (or 2/1) with 18/1 exactas.

No, I do see. And I'm talking over time. And the person that taught me this has been betting on horses for over 45 years, and I figure he knows far more.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Grits

And I will see far less 15/1 with 9/1 exactas, than I'll see 1/1 (or 2/1) with 18/1 exactas.

No, I do see. And I'm talking over time. And the person that taught me this has been betting on horses for over 45 years, and I figure he knows far more.

Yes, if instant gratification isn't your thing, this is definitely the way it is taught.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure I would suggest blindly using the favorite on top ONLY, but I once learned a valuable lesson from one of the game's greatest bettors. If you like a horse who's a big price, and your not thrilled with the favorite, but the exacta with the favorite on top of your horse is paying around $40, you must use that favorite on top for a significant portion of your play, as the favorite isn't whatever short price he is, but the key to $40 if your pick is good.

And no Andy, not blindly, as I said before, there are many occasions that there is no clear favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Yes, if instant gratification isn't your thing, this is definitely the way it is taught.

" Instant gratification ", at the racetrack, is for losers. We are all in this for the long run. The same mentality that worries about when they DON'T win in this current discussion will also lead to trying to " get out " in the last race. There is only one actual " last " race to a horseplayer and in general we don't know when that is coming. A horseplayer does not divide his playing by days....just by cumulative results.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

" Instant gratification ", at the racetrack, is for losers. We are all in this for the long run. The same mentality that worries about when they DON'T win in this current discussion will also lead to trying to " get out " in the last race. There is only one actual " last " race to a horseplayer and in general we don't know when that is coming. A horseplayer does not divide his playing by days....just by cumulative results.

Exactly the point I was making... (or trying to.)

There are those (like my Dad, for example) who love to just bet on the triple crown days, etc. For him, instant gratification is what he wants. He's not a real horseplayer.

[ELA]

I didn't mean to start an arguement here, LOL. I understand the points made, and absent of specifics, a specific race, facts, etc., we are speaking conceptually. I thought there might be a "norm" or "smart play" kind of thing.

I guess the real answer is -- for me -- in this situation, is to very quickly seek out my friend Andy and ask him what to do, LOL.

I think in every situation we tend to weigh risk/reward, our interpretation or perceived "value" so to speak, emotions I would guess, and experience, along with a host of other elements.

Generically speaking, I think in certain situations place -- and show -- betting can be used as a hedge. I've bet plenty of horses -- who were not the favorite -- across the board, where they've run second or third. Running second, I make money somtimes -- of course not a lot. Running third, I mostly lose money, but get something back. Perhaps this is a "whimp" way of looking at it and playing. But I've done this when I don't have strong feelings and opinions about gimmicks.

On the other hand, how could you use the exacta as a hedge? If you bet an exacta (or a couple of exactas) with the favorite on top -- you are betting against yourself -- right? Use the non-favorite on top and he comes in, but you don't hit the exacta, you diluted your win (or WP, WPS) bet, right?

I completely understand this is far to generic in nature in order to arrive at an answer.

Anyway, thank you again for your advice and again, pardon my naivete.

Eric

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ELA

I didn't mean to start an arguement here, LOL. I understand the points made, and absent of specifics, a specific race, facts, etc., we are speaking conceptually. I thought there might be a "norm" or "smart play" kind of thing.

I guess the real answer is -- for me -- in this situation, is to very quickly seek out my friend Andy and ask him what to do, LOL.

I think in every situation we tend to weigh risk/reward, our interpretation or perceived "value" so to speak, emotions I would guess, and experience, along with a host of other elements.

Generically speaking, I think in certain situations place -- and show -- betting can be used as a hedge. I've bet plenty of horses -- who were not the favorite -- across the board, where they've run second or third. Running second, I make money somtimes -- of course not a lot. Running third, I mostly lose money, but get something back. Perhaps this is a "whimp" way of looking at it and playing. But I've done this when I don't have strong feelings and opinions about gimmicks.

On the other hand, how could you use the exacta as a hedge? If you bet an exacta (or a couple of exactas) with the favorite on top -- you are betting against yourself -- right? Use the non-favorite on top and he comes in, but you don't hit the exacta, you diluted your win (or WP, WPS) bet, right?

I completely understand this is far to generic in nature in order to arrive at an answer.

Anyway, thank you again for your advice and again, pardon my naivete.

Eric

Eric,

Please don't apologize. This has been a very informative thread and I've enjoyed reading it. It's gratifying to read the different points of views that come into play on this message board. Thanks for posting the topic!

Jamie

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ELA

I didn't mean to start an arguement here, LOL. I understand the points made, and absent of specifics, a specific race, facts, etc., we are speaking conceptually. I thought there might be a "norm" or "smart play" kind of thing.

I guess the real answer is -- for me -- in this situation, is to very quickly seek out my friend Andy and ask him what to do, LOL.

I think in every situation we tend to weigh risk/reward, our interpretation or perceived "value" so to speak, emotions I would guess, and experience, along with a host of other elements.

Generically speaking, I think in certain situations place -- and show -- betting can be used as a hedge. I've bet plenty of horses -- who were not the favorite -- across the board, where they've run second or third. Running second, I make money somtimes -- of course not a lot. Running third, I mostly lose money, but get something back. Perhaps this is a "whimp" way of looking at it and playing. But I've done this when I don't have strong feelings and opinions about gimmicks.

On the other hand, how could you use the exacta as a hedge? If you bet an exacta (or a couple of exactas) with the favorite on top -- you are betting against yourself -- right? Use the non-favorite on top and he comes in, but you don't hit the exacta, you diluted your win (or WP, WPS) bet, right?

I completely understand this is far to generic in nature in order to arrive at an answer.

Anyway, thank you again for your advice and again, pardon my naivete.

Eric

An excellent point on betting against yourself. I didn't even bring that up. These are the same people betting 3 horses to win the same race.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

And I will see far less 15/1 with 9/1 exactas, than I'll see 1/1 (or 2/1) with 18/1 exactas.

No, I do see. And I'm talking over time. And the person that taught me this has been betting on horses for over 45 years, and I figure he knows far more.

Grits, we are going in circles...Who cares if you talk to someone betting on horses for a 100 years, that's no argument in favor of it. Did that same person tally up what he would've gotten to place over all those years? Probably not. Or maybe he just had a habit of picking the second place horse in every race. Who knows? Maybe we can chart the next 500 races in NY and SA and see who's method comes out ahead. That might be good for the board. Scavs is a pro and these charts and I'm sure he wouldn't mind doing it....I'm joking Scavs, you don't have to do it---

[blackthroatedwind]

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

[MisterB]

Value betting is one of my gigs, and I have been successfull spreading a value horse. First, why in the hell would anyone bet a horse less than 4-1. This amazes me to no end. Long haul, short haul, you can't take less than 4-1 on a major bet. You will be starting the death march from Subic Bay, Phillipines. Every race isn't betable, you got to pick your spots, or be pick pocketed.
Of course, when you visit the track as a vacationer, the money doen't matter, your a short timer, having some fum, and will toss the loose cash in the pool, I LOVE YOU FOLKS.

Exacta's will kill you, place bets will suck you dry, so what can you do? Try a Key spread on a tri.

1/2345/23456

Win bet hard

Hard earned money well spent, win or lose

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

Nope that's not how it would be done. It would simply be charting all races. You are assuming the favorite is winning. You would do every race. Sometimes it would work out with the fave over a longshot and sometimes it won't. That's the only way it would work....You would only be using races where the favorite wins and obviously when they win at only a 30% clip, that would be faulty.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Grits, we are going in circles...Who cares if you talk to someone betting on horses for a 100 years, that's no argument in favor of it. Did that same person tally up what he would've gotten to place over all those years? Probably not. Or maybe he just had a habit of picking the second place horse in every race. Who knows? Maybe we can chart the next 500 races in NY and SA and see who's method comes out ahead. That might be good for the board. Scavs is a pro and these charts and I'm sure he wouldn't mind doing it....I'm joking Scavs, you don't have to do it---

I'm gonna tell ya like a friend here RS, if you could get rid of that undulating little tart for an avatar, honestly darlin' I could take you a lot more seriously in regard to horseplaying.

As far as my mentor you don't wanna mess with me there. I've spent years listening to this man. I CARE, very much. Because, he's forgotten more than someone that plays on weekends, or casually, and bets ATB on longshots will learn in a lifetime. He played day in, day out. It was his living for a very longtime. He still plays. He's very good at it. AND when you do this for a living--you keep impeccable records, not to mention the involvement with CHARTS before Formulator came along. I imagine he kept charts on a point such as this as well. Good horseplayers know what works over the long haul.

You and I'll do fine RS, we just disagree on this and that's ok.