kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

[mp3]

strange ml. i was hoping for a much better price on kd. they are REALLLLY high on this horse and they are expecting a huge effort.

Originally Posted by mp3

strange ml. i was hoping for a much better price on kd. they are REALLLLY high on this horse and they are expecting a huge effort.

Showing Up will be the favorite or second choice. You might get a price on KD because of his post. Does the horse even have a jockey yet?

[mp3]

they told me the jock who had been riding him in texas was able to get off his mounts and is going to ride him. the jocks name is quincy hamilton

Originally Posted by mp3

they told me the jock who had been riding him in texas was able to get off his mounts and is going to ride him. the jocks name is quincy hamilton

I'll take Cornelio over that guy any day of the week. Showing Up raced in a field of 19 last race, lets see how the others handle a big field. I honestly don't see this race being close.

[mp3]

you continue to make points I don't get. You like the fact that showing up raced in a big field and has gained that experience and are willing to disregard that he has never had experience racing on the turf. It is impossible to forecast a horse to gallop when never been over a surface in race conditions. The size of the field also helps KD more than SU because kd will be on the lead while SU will have to work his way through traffic. Not sure I am getting your points

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by boldruler

I'll take Cornelio over that guy any day of the week. Showing Up raced in a field of 19 last race, lets see how the others handle a big field. I honestly don't see this race being close.

Showing Up wins this for fun IMO.

Originally Posted by mp3

you continue to make points I don't get. You like the fact that showing up raced in a big field and has gained that experience and are willing to disregard that he has never had experience racing on the turf. It is impossible to forecast a horse to gallop when never been over a surface in race conditions. The size of the field also helps KD more than SU because kd will be on the lead while SU will have to work his way through traffic. Not sure I am getting your points

I can assure you of one thing, Showing Up is a better horse on the turf than on the dirt. SU can run on the lead or just off the lead. Did you miss the derby where he ran stride for stride with Barbaro until the last 1/8th mile. Too bad Barbaro isn't around, he would have won this one for fun, even if he had just raced in the Belmont. KD is going to have a tough time getting to the lead from post 14. This isn't the garbage he has been racing against in TX or at Remington Park. Firm turf and SU beats him by 10-12.

[Gander]

Morning lines are no more than one person's opinion of what the odds will be when the race goes off. If you asked 5 guys to set the morning line for this race, you'd probably get 5 different prices on Kip Deville and Showing Up, ranging from 9/2 to 8/1 on Kip, and 5/2 to 6/1 on Showing Up.

Not sure why anyone even looks at them. They are definetly no barometer to gauge a race's odds.

Originally Posted by Gander

Morning lines are no more than one person's opinion of what the odds will be when the race goes off. If you asked 5 guys to set the morning line for this race, you'd probably get 5 different prices on Kip Deville and Showing Up, ranging from 9/2 to 8/1 on Kip, and 5/2 to 6/1 on Showing Up.

Not sure why anyone even looks at them. They are definetly no barometer to gauge a race's odds.

Agreed, but the guy who made the line appears to be making it on his opinion, not on what it will be at post. No rational person can think Showing Up will go off at 6-1.

[Gander]

"I can assure you of one thing, Showing Up is a better horse on the turf than on the dirt."


Why? Because one person thinks so? I mean the horse worked brilliantly on grass. Big deal, so do a lot of dirt horses who make the switch. Doesnt mean the horse will take to the grass in a 12 horse field when the gates open.

[Gander]

"No rational person can think Showing Up will go off at 6-1."

I totally agree Boldruler. This horse has no shot of going off at 6/1. Who is this fool who set the line?

Originally Posted by Gander

"I can assure you of one thing, Showing Up is a better horse on the turf than on the dirt."


Why? Because one person thinks so? I mean the horse worked brilliantly on grass. Big deal, so do a lot of dirt horses who make the switch. Doesnt mean the horse will take to the grass in a 12 horse field when the gates open.

The horse has an explosive turn of foot. The guys at Belmont were kidding and saying Barbaro was lucky Showing Up never got a shot at him on the turf because it would have been a dogfight. Considering Barbaro was arguably the best 3yr old turf horse in a decade, I like what I have been hearing about the Jackson's horse.

[Gander]

If Showing Up could have been that competitive with Barbaro on the turf and Barbaro was one arguably the best 3 year old turfer in a decade, think of what Showing Up will do against these gerbils. Should be a mortal lock.

Originally Posted by Gander

If Showing Up could have been that competitive with Barbaro on the turf and Barbaro was one arguably the best 3 year old turfer in a decade, think of what Showing Up will do against these gerbils. Should be a mortal lock.

That is how I am betting it, but he still has to live up to what they are saying. It looks like a pretty weak field to me. If he wins this one, I bet he gets some stiffer competition in the graded $1million race on July 15, although all the top 3yr olds are staying on the dirt as preps for the Travers. I could see him winning the first 3 legs and then getting beaten on BC day by the top 4yr olds, but this group here doesn't impress me at all.

Yeah, ok, sure. The same barn has also told us 100 times that Funny Cide was all set and fixed up and ready to fire a huge shot right before all the losses.
So I'm supposed to empty out on a horse because the same barn says so? No thanks.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Yeah, ok, sure. The same barn has also told us 100 times that Funny Cide was all set and fixed up and ready to fire a huge shot right before all the losses.
So I'm supposed to empty out on a horse because the same barn says so? No thanks.

I doubt Tagg said anything about Funny Cide. He doesn't say anything about any of his horses. My info is from a guy who knows the owner and he said 100x that Barbaro would romp in the derby. I didn't see you making that pick. You haven't exactly been red hot with your picks lately, from what I can tell. I would hope you didn't bet on Showing Up in this one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.

As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.

The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.

As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.

The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.

Doesn't make a damn bit of difference what his odds are... you either like him to win or you don't. If he was 30-1, would you like him to win? LOL

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Doesn't make a damn bit of difference what his odds are... you either like him to win or you don't. If he was 30-1, would you like him to win? LOL

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like Showing Up as a horse, and I think he will do very well in next year's Met Mile, but I am dubious of his chances against top competition at any distance over a mile.

As for accepting based on opinions of his connections that he will excel on the grass, I'm strongly in Mike's corner, as working on the grass and racing on it are two totally different things. I will happily bet against him at what will probably be very underlaid odds this weekend based on reputation. He will beat me first time on the grass, especially at 1 3/16ths, as horses like Showing Up dramatically underperform their odds in these types of situations.

The funny thing is that in my heart I will probably be rooting for him but making money in this game is not about rooting with your heart. Showing Up is a bad bet in this race at any odds under 6-1 and probably at odds under 10-1.

He got a ton out of the 10F in the derby. Horse is very fit. As for the Met Mile, I think they will go for the BC Mile on the Turf next year instead of taking on horses on the dirt. He is just a better horse on the turf, although I understand most won't believe it until after this weekend. Distance could be a concern but not against this bunch. He is a much different horse than you saw him 7 weeks ago. People keep forgetting he ran a 10F race after running 2 weeks earlier. No bruise or puncture wound this time around.