A weird trend I've noticed....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

With the Tiz Wonderful news...I'll bring this up

To my knowledge---not a single horse who's ever won his debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has ever went on to capture an eclipse for champion 3-year-old male the following season.

Pretty incredible stuff--when you consider how high profile the resort meets are--how deep the 2-year-old MSW races are every year--and the fact that the champion 3-year-old male award has been handed out for 70 straight years!


Every year this decade---with an exception to 2004--there has been one incredible debut winning performance by a 2-year-old, at Saratoga.


* 2000: Macho Uno: Bet to 3-to-5 favortisim, he wins his debut in hand on opening day. It was a sensational performance visually, and it was also the MUCH faster of split divisions. 86 Beyer.

Afterwards: He wins 2 Grade 1's and is beaten a neck in another in his only three other starts at age two. A BC Juvie victory over dual-classic winner Point Given and Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry earn him a 2yo championship. He missed the triple crown with soundess issues..and was never an elite horse there-after.

* 2001: Mayakovsky: Bet off-the-board, and wins the much faster of split MSW heats on opening day...defeating Thunderello in track record time.

Afterwards: he ran 2nd to Came Home and earned a 104 Beyer in the Hopeful next out. Got hurt. Was never a serious horse again.

* 2002: Sky Mesa: Wins his debut by 8 lengths with a giant 92 Beyer.

Afterwards: He wears down Discreet Cat's older brother, and wins the Grade 1 Hopeful with a 103 Beyer next out. He gets hurt and isn't much horse there after.

* 2003: Birdstone: Wins his debut by 12 1/2 lengths with an incredible 99 Beyer. He expolded home, getting the last 1/4 in 24 2/5ths, and the last eight in 12 1/5, on a track that wasn't yielding real fast times.

Afterwards: He won the Champagne in career start #3, and took the Belmont Stakes and Travers at age 3. No championship though.

2004: No amazing debut victories. A couple of pretty decent ones turned in by English Channell, Proud Accolade, and Closing Argument however.

2005: Discreet Cat: In what was an all-time great debut performance, Discreet Cat ran a 106 Beyer on the Travers undercard. (On AFT) He ran faster than Lost in the Fog did in the King's Bishop, much faster than fellow 2-year-olds First Samurai, Henny Hughes, and Too Much Bling did in the Hopeful. As well as running as fast, as Flower Alley did in his Travers victory over Bellamy Road and Roman Ruler. The final quarter of Discreet Cat's win was in 23 and change. Only the 2004 Sanford Stakes, won by future Belmont winner Afleet Alex, featured a come-home time as fast...in a Saratoga 2yo race this decade. DC's 106 Beyer was just 6 points off of Formal Gold's 112 for fastest ever. FG's 112 came as a 3-year-old.

Afterwards: In Dubai: He wiped the floor with American horse of the year Invasor. Also burying the massively hyped 8-for-8 on dirt Simpatico Bribon, and previously undefeated star Gold For Sale. In America: He's romped everytime. Including a win in the Cigar Mile in Dr. Fager like time.

2006: Tiz Wonderful wins his debut by double digit. Runs MUCH faster than the other division, which I believe was won by an Ernie P./Klanfar horse whos name Durkin butchered.

Afterwards: Two more big wins and he's toast.

Del Mar's had some excellent debut winning 2-year-olds as well...including champions Vindication and Declan's Moon over the last couple years.

While this simple feat hasn't been accomplished--it's not like there haven't been many capable horses with a chance to do it over the last 70 years. In fact, if a horse like Discreet Cat can't even do it--who exactly can?

[blackthroatedwind]

I can't speak for CJ, but quite frankly, I'm more than a little disappointed.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

2006: Tiz Wonderful wins his debut by double digit. Runs MUCH faster than the other division, which I believe was won by an Ernie P./Klanfar horse whos name Durkin butchered.

Was that Kong's Revenge? And if so, how do you screw that one up?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He called him King's Revenge I think.

Honestly, I still don't think BTW has gotten over the retirement of Vindication either.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He called him King's Revenge I think.

Honestly, I still don't think BTW has gotten over the retirement of Vindication either.....

What I haven't gotten over is your premature retirement.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What I haven't gotten over is your premature retirement.

zzzzzzz

Yet another lame attempt to pimp Discreet Cat.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I even worked his half brother into it!

Why is it that you think no horse who's ever won a debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has went on to capture his division the following season?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why is it that you think no horse who's ever won a debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has went on to capture his division the following season?

Pre BC 2YOs started racing LONG before Saratoga. Post BC they ran so few races as 2YOs that their form was close to meaningless.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I even worked his half brother into it!

Why is it that you think no horse who's ever won a debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has went on to capture his division the following season?

To me it is rather astounding that this has never happened. I would love to go back and see where the horses who won a 3 year championship debut. I don't think there is one particupar reason to this question. The only thing I can think of is that you are only working with about 8-12 weeks a year between the two tracks. But like you mentioned, there are tons of great MSW races at both tracks that attract top horses.

[Sightseek]

Out of curiosity I started looking up a few horses that were Champion Three Year Olds...did A.P. Indy make his debut in an Allowance or is this information wrong?

http://www.tmeter.com/horses/apindy.html

[Linny]

AP Indy ran in a MSW at DelMar in his debut. He was 4th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Pre BC 2YOs started racing LONG before Saratoga. Post BC they ran so few races as 2YOs that their form was close to meaningless.

That has something to do with it...

But...there have been quite a few older horses that debuted at Saratoga, lost, and won the 3yo division the next year.

In fact, the first offical champion 3-year-old was Granville in '36. He was 3rd in his debut at Saratoga.

Arts and Letters and Stage Door Johnny, who were back-to-back champion 3yo's in the 60's...they both lost debuts at Saratoga.

The great Tom Fool easily won his debut at Saratoga in 1951, and was named champion 2yo. He got beat out by One Count for the division crown as a 3 year-old. He was 10-for-10 as a 4-year-old.

It really just looks like a statistical oddity to me.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I even worked his half brother into it!

Why is it that you think no horse who's ever won a debut at Saratoga or Del Mar has went on to capture his division the following season?

There were horses that broke their maidens at Delmar and Saratoga and went on to be 3yo champ, just not in their debut. Since the 3yo champion is always going to be a router, why is it surprising that no champ wins first out of the box at 5 or 5.5 furlongs?

Also, like btw says, before the BC, many champs won at Saratoga, they had just run numerous times already.

I like how AP Indy shipped to Golden Gate to win a race before the Hollywood Futurity.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I like how AP Indy shipped to Golden Gate to win a race before the Hollywood Futurity.

Does this have some secret meaning to this thread that I am missing?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Linny

AP Indy ran in a MSW at DelMar in his debut. He was 4th.

Thanks, the database is wrong then.

[Linny]

The 3yo divisions in the late 90's were dominated by Cali horses. Charismatic/Silver Charm/Real Quiet etc all came from thew west. Skip Away and Holy Bull debuted at Monmouth and, Thunder Gulch was 3rd in a BEL MSW in his debut. Prairie Bayou was crushed in his KEE debut and won 2nd out at Churchill.

There was a time when SAR maiden winners were regarded as the best propsects. Before the BC, races like the Futurity and the Champagne made champions.

Sorry to say but with guys like Pletcher winning bunches of races for 2yo's at the Spa, the 3yo records of those winners should be better. It looks like they are pointed for the win at the Spa and then if they don't pan out, oh well...we still have some more serious, later developing types for the classics.

Also, it used to be that the best 2yo's in the east went to Saratoga for the stakes program. Affirmed was already a sw when he hit town. Dehere won all three SAR stakes at 2. So did City Zip. Of course, now most of the horses pointed for those races are not the ones trainers are considering for the classics the next season.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There were horses that broke their maidens at Delmar and Saratoga and went on to be 3yo champ, just not in their debut. Since the 3yo champion is always going to be a router, why is it surprising that no champ wins first out of the box at 5 or 5.5 furlongs?

Also, like btw says, before the BC, many champs won at Saratoga, they had just run numerous times already.

Affirmed (Belmont Park) & Afleet Alex (Deleware) did just to name a few, however I do not know the distance they were running at.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Affirmed (Belmont Park) & Afleet Alex (Deleware) did just to name a few, however I do not know the distance they were running at.

I should have added in July or August against top competition, which is what I was trying to convey (obviously poorly).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Affirmed (Belmont Park) & Afleet Alex (Deleware) did just to name a few, however I do not know the distance they were running at.

Secretariat also had won prior to his running at Saratoga (first race there was an allowance). I believe AA had won at 5F (MSW) and 5.5F (ALW) at Delaware prior to running in the Sanford. Affirmed, I believe he started at 5.5F although I could definitely be wrong on that one.