KY Derby prospects

[Gander]

Top 20 or so KY Derby qualifiers
in order of graded stakes earnings as of 1/5/07:

(Needs to be updated after this past weekend)

Street Sense ..... $1,152,000
Circular Quay ..... $750,134
Birdbirdistheword .... $625,000
Great Hunter ..... $610,000
Stormello ..... $512,900
Scat Daddy ..... $482,000
Xchanger ..... $202,890
Tiz Wonderful .... $200,592
Pirates Deputy .... $200,000
Nobiz Like Shobiz .... $200,000
King of the Roxy .... $190,000
Horse Greeley...$150,000
Principle Secret....$140,000
Chase City....$120,000
Datrick ... $114,352
Officer Rocket .... $93,260
Got the Last Laugh .... $92,000
Liquidity .... $89,900
Belgravia ... $86,490
EZ Warrior .... $60,000 + stake race 1-6-7
Teuflesberg ... $45,442 + stake race 1-x-7
Buffalo Man .... $18,100 + stake race 1-x-7

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

Top 20 or so KY Derby qualifiers
in order of graded stakes earnings as of 1/5/07:

(Needs to be updated after this past weekend)

Street Sense ..... $1,152,000
Circular Quay ..... $750,134
Birdbirdistheword .... $625,000
Great Hunter ..... $610,000
Stormello ..... $512,900
Scat Daddy ..... $482,000
Xchanger ..... $202,890
Tiz Wonderful .... $200,592
Pirates Deputy .... $200,000
Nobiz Like Shobiz .... $200,000
King of the Roxy .... $190,000
Horse Greeley...$150,000
Principle Secret....$140,000
Chase City....$120,000
Datrick ... $114,352
Officer Rocket .... $93,260
Got the Last Laugh .... $92,000
Liquidity .... $89,900
Belgravia ... $86,490
EZ Warrior .... $60,000 + stake race 1-6-7
Teuflesberg ... $45,442 + stake race 1-x-7
Buffalo Man .... $18,100 + stake race 1-x-7

Wow, $200,000 is normally the breathe easy point yet we have 10 horses there already and that is not counting any fillies or any horses overseas that could potentially contest. Second place in the Wood won't get it done this year.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Wow, $200,000 is normally the breathe easy point yet we have 10 horses there already and that is not counting any fillies or any horses overseas that could potentially contest. Second place in the Wood won't get it done this year.

You need your money before the big 3 take place this year or you may need to race. However, assuming everyone is healthy I dont see the top 10 changing all the much.

[Sightseek]

This list is missing a few very interesting horses....hopefully they are entered in some stakes soon, because right now I'm liking Time Squared and a few others moreso than many on this list.

[Sightseek]

Street Sense is expected to only start in the Bluegrass and one prep for that in Feb early March.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Street Sense is expected to only start in the Bluegrass and one prep for that in Feb early March.

Makes sense to me. The Derby will be 3rd off a layoff and Carl is good with that angle. He doesnt have to worry about money so he can try to get his horse primed for the first Saturday in May. I sort of like the move.

[jpops757]

The Chitown horse running this week end at FG has gotta start cashing some checks.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

We got a.....long way to go, anything can happen.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

im still expecting big things from cobalt blue this year. like the fact they didnt press on with the smashing debut winner last year after the best pal. his latest breeze was nice

[Cajungator26]

I've got a strange vibe that Tiznow will sire the derby winner this year...

And nope, I don't think it will be Tiz Wonderful. I'm leaning more towards Liquidity or a colt named Tenfold. It's way too early, but it's fun to think about.

[Cajungator26]

Oh yeah... IMO, Birdbirdistheword is the real deal, too. He's a nice looking colt.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

SOLDIER may be one to watch after today!

[The Bid]

Romans Run is a pretty nice Tiznow as well.

[Round Pen]

Heres a Name I want all you guys to remember "Marchfield"

[smartyalex]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Heres a Name I want all you guys to remember "Marchfield"

yea, I remember him...11/5 Coronation Futurity -Woodbine- 1)Leonnatus Anteas -- 2)Marchfield -- 3)Jiggs Coz

last I saw he worked 3f in 40:20 5/6......I think he needs to work on this a little first.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

1 . Street Sense …… $1,152,000
2 . Circular Quay …… $750,134
3 . Birdbirdistheword …… $625,000
4 . Great Hunter …… $610,000
5 . Stormello …… $512,900
6 . Scat Daddy …… $482,000
7 . Xchanger …… $202,890
8 . Tiz Wonderful …… $200,592
9 . Pirates Deputy …… $200,000
10 . Nobiz Like Shobiz …… $200,000
11 . King of the Roxy …… $190,000
12 . Horse Greeley …… $150,000
13 . Principle Secret …… $140,000
14 . Chace City …… $121,665
15 . Datrick …… $114,352
16 . Notional …… $102,000
17 . Office Rocket …… $93,260
18 . Got the Last Laugh …… $92,000
19 . Liquidity …… $89,900
20 . Belgravia …… $86,490
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 . Shermanesque …… $72,301
22 . Day Pass …… $67,740
23 . UD Ghetto …… $64,238
24 . EZ Warrior …… $60,000
25 . Soldier's Dancer …… $60,000
26 . Hard Spun …… $60,000
27 . Roman Commander …… $57,980
28 . Pegasus Wind …… $57,345
29 . Teuflesberg …… $55,442
30 . CP West …… $50,000
31 . Any Given Saturday …… $42,969
32 . Zanjero …… $40,000
33 . Malt Magic …… $40,000
34 . Actin Good …… $40,000
35 . Pro Pink …… $35,437
36 . Dominican …… $33,484
37 . Spot the Diplomat …… $30,000
38 . Tenfold …… $30,000
39 . Sightseeing …… $28,580
40 . Kong's Revenge …… $25,000
41 . Unbridled Express …… $25,000
42 . Izzie's Halo …… $25,000
43 . What a Tale …… $23,974
44 . Dilemma …… $20,000
45 . Freesgood …… $20,000
46 . Kong the King …… $20,000
47 . My Golden Opinion …… $20,000
48 . Sedgefield …… $20,000
49 . Buffalo Man …… $18,100
50 . Grapelli …… $18,000
51 . Incriminate …… $17,934
52 . Silent Soul …… $17,830
53 . Sentry …… $17,719
54 . Run Alex Run …… $16,150
55 . Passport …… $16,109
56 . Caped for Flight …… $15,000
57 . War Wolf …… $15,000
58 . Starbase …… $13,106
59 . Swiss Ski …… $12,000
60 . Tom Rickey …… $12,000
61 . Mistycal Light …… $11,367
62 . Storm in May …… $11,000
63 . Going Ballistic …… $10,742
64 . Hot Flame …… $10,367
65 . Timber Reserve …… $10,000
66 . Son of the West …… $10,000
67 . Scatter the Tak …… $10,000
68 . Ice Man Cometh …… $10,000
69 . Go Poppa Fooze …… $10,000
70 . Air Lord …… $9,000
71 . Sam P. …… $7,500
72 . Irish Ace …… $7,500
73 . Pink Viper …… $6,979
74 . Joe Got Even …… $6,445
75 . Nereus …… $6,358
76 . Lightning Larry …… $6,000
77 . Hurry Up Austin …… $6,000
78 . Diamond Dave …… $6,000
79 . Rutledge Cat …… $6,000
80 . Beautiful Venue …… $5,315
81 . Fernando Po …… $5,000
82 . Lucky Thirteen …… $5,000
83 . Bagger Vance …… $4,500
84 . Fast N Ready …… $4,000
85 . Makeithapencaptain …… $4,000
86 . Adore the Gold …… $3,387
87 . Divide and Conquer …… $3,000
88 . Indian Camp …… $3,000
89 . Delightful Kiss …… $3,000
90 . Tap it Light …… $3,000
91 . Mr. Blackstone …… $2,238
92 . Marked Warrior …… $2,000
93 . Hot Rod …… $2,000
94 . Beta Capo …… $2,000
95 . Elite Squadrom …… $1,665
96 . Mister Cugat …… $1,665
97 . I'm a Numbers Guy …… $1,600
98 . Big Timer …… $1,600
99 . Sequoia King …… $1,367
100 . Erin's Kristina …… $1,367
101 . Fortunate Envoy …… $1,367
102 . Ringside Partner …… $1,367
103 . Summer Doldrums …… $1,334
104 . Marina Market …… $1,332
105 . Shore …… $1,109
106 . Tony Terrific …… $1,000
107 . Citi Smoke …… $1,000
108 . Cowtown Cat …… $753
109 . Sipsey …… $753
110 . Trading Star …… $752

Updated through 1/13/07. Notional's $90,000 payday in the G2 San Rafael allows him to crack the Top 20 and Hard Spun achieved his first graded stakes earnings with his $60,000 score in the G3 LeComte.

Note that Datrick (currently #15) is one that I'll personally go out on a limb (LOL) and say will not be in the starting gate for the Derby, considering he has trouble getting 6f let alone 10. His GSE's come from CD's late spring/early summer juvenile sprint races in 2006.

Contenders whose GSE's appear in green font earned the majority of their GSE's in turf races.

Please post any inaccuracies/problems/etc.!

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by smartyalex

yea, I remember him...11/5 Coronation Futurity -Woodbine- 1)Leonnatus Anteas -- 2)Marchfield -- 3)Jiggs Coz

last I saw he worked 3f in 40:20 5/6......I think he needs to work on this a little first.

Not to Worry he will be making a start at Gulfstream in the very near future

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Not to Worry he will be making a start at Gulfstream in the very near future

you gotta watch out for those Woodbine horses coming to Gulfstream. They pop at huge odds (or at least did until I opened my big mouth)

I still say the Derby winner will come from Florida. He may not do his final prep there but he will have a race or two in Florida.

Street Sense is up against it. I don't know why the BC Juvenile winner even bothers to go to the Derby. I do but historically... no.

I think you can throw out all the Pletcher horses.

Now that I have eliminated half of the field, I will elimnate all that do not have a 3 syllable name.

[ManilaRose]

Monday 01/15/07
Santa Anita Race #3

EXHALE has been touted as a potential Santa Anita Derby colt, and his debut shows why. He broke slow from the rail, quickly worked into contention, dueled through a fast pace, and only weakened late to finish second behind Notional, the 8-5 favorite Saturday in the San Rafael Stakes. EXHALE missed a start at Hollywood Park because of a minor foot problem, but he worked well recently and would crush these if he reproduced his Oct. 21 debut. This is only his second start.

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

Monday 01/15/07
Santa Anita Race #3

EXHALE has been touted as a potential Santa Anita Derby colt, and his debut shows why. He broke slow from the rail, quickly worked into contention, dueled through a fast pace, and only weakened late to finish second behind Notional, the 8-5 favorite Saturday in the San Rafael Stakes. EXHALE missed a start at Hollywood Park because of a minor foot problem, but he worked well recently and would crush these if he reproduced his Oct. 21 debut. This is only his second start.

What was the extent of the foot problems?