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#1
07-25-2015, 05:36 AM
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7/25: Saratoga (Day 2; $36k C/O; Diana/Sanford)
Opening Day at the Spa was a rousing success Friday with mammoth, enthusiastic crowd of nearly 35,000 (25,600 in '14) and robust handle ($17.7MM) that was nearly 20% above last year ($14.9MM). Other than a tornado warning and not being able to include winners on half of the slate, it could not have been a better way to start the Saratoga season.
Notable on Day 1 was an exceedingly tiring main track that took it's toll on many a front runner, making Schuylerville winner Off the Tracks' performance (83 Beyer) even more impressive. In the 6 events on the main track, only the stake-winning Florida shipper and $16k CLM'r victor Big Blue Talent were able to press the pace and stay on successfully. Even the sealing off the track after the 4th - in preparation for the storm that skirted north - failed to quicken the strip. $36k carryover was created in large part to the 55-1 stunner by Kelly's Prize who broke sharp in the 5th under Elvis Trujillo, took control and battled gamely in the late stages to prevail. Gary Sciacca and Dr. Paul Giacopelli claimed the NY-bred Pure Prize filly for $12.5k in January. SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD) Doesn't look like the usual tony group of Spa juvies. Slight edge to the Kenneally's (28% 2nd time starters) Metal Magic SCR'D who owns benefit of experience when just missing versus Sanford contender Twirling Cinnamon in debut. Presence of Pletcher SCR'D, Asmussen, Casse, etc., could help 4-1 ML number stick.. Most Likely: #7 Moon King 3-1 4th Next Best: #4 Hundred Years 6-1 5th Best Value: #2 Totally Discreet 10-1 6th Exotics Use: #1 Add Four 15-1 3rd 2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD) Interesting ALW set with the top pair stretching out. Have to expect improvement from Bam Bam on move to Mott from rebuilding (and struggling) Paulo Lobo.. Most Likely: #5 Bam Bam 5-2 3rd Best Value: #6 Artie Crasher 10-1 4th Next Best: #4 English Minister 7-2 WON ($8.10) Exotics Use: #7 Speeding Comet 3-1 5th Super Add: #2 Adirondack Dancer 4-1 2nd 3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) First of Chad Brown's turf route-debuting babies.. Most Likely: #6 Life Imitates Art 7-2 2nd Best Value: #9 Swagger Jagger 10-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Dissident 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #2 Smarty Kitten 3-1 6th 4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD) Like Sea Raven Friday, Stay Tuned way the horse to beat. Danzig Storm a tad dangerous on front end. Easy Comparison gets the triple whammy -- and then some: 1st/claim, turf/dirt, route/sprint, blinkers on, testicles off.. Most Likely: #1 Stay Tuned 1-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Easy Comparison 12-1 9th Next Best: #7 Danzig Storm 6-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 Ogremeister 10-1 7th 5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD) Third baby race of the day a mysterious group with those that have run (2-7-8) with edge but just OK and debuters having assortment of merits and demerits. Greenpointcrusader from firster-adept Schettino is a half to Keyed Entry and Justin Phillip, but note that Clocker Mike Vesce speculates that the $575k Bernardini son may need two turn racing. You'll know what to expect from Pletcher's Saratoga Mischief based on the debut of Boalt Hall in the 1st as they've been working together (and modestly at that). Horner Man from Lynch looks like an exotics booster.. Most Likely: #7 Show Bound 4-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Silvertown 10-1 4th Next Best: #9 Crosstown Route 6-1 7th Exotics Use: #3 Horner Man 15-1 6th P5 Grid: 1: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-9 (C) 2: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-7 (C) 3: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4-9-10 (C) 4: 1 (A), 8 (B), 7 (C) 5: 7-8-9 (A), 2-3-10 (B), 4-5-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 Full (A/B/C): $70 P4 Grid: 2: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-7 (C) 3: 6 (A), 9 (B), 3-4-10 (C) 4: 1 (A), 8 (B), 7 (C) 5: 3-7-8-9-10 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x10 = 120 x .50 = $60 Full (A/B/C): $52.50 (With $1 All A's Play) 6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) $36,444 P6 C/O starts here.. Turf sprint tricky place to start P6 sequence but pecking order appears pretty distinct.. Most Likely: #3 Lewys Vaporizer 3-1 7th Best Value: #4 Run for Logistics 5-1 2nd Next Best: #8 Dowse's Beach 7-2 WON ($5.80) Exotics Use: #9 Asset Inflation 4-1 6th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Messy sprint set with 8 of the 11 featuring layoff lines of one duration or another. Ashado daughter Regent's House (Street Cry) was a debut winner for KMc & Godolphin and barn excels at these long layoff returns. 15-1 to start the bidding but don't be surprised if it's half that by post time.. Best Value: #5 Regent's House 15-1 5th Next Best: #1 Sister Margaret 5-1 9th Exotics Use: #7 Bedford Land 7-2 8th Super Add: #11 Irish Sweepstakes 10-1 10th 8th: Opt CLM/C, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Have to take a leap of faith and believe the pace will be legit here.. Most Likely: #3 Taghleeb 7-2 3rd Next Best: #4 Zambian Dream 3-1 5th Best Value: #5 Ocala Jim 20-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Market Outlook 4-1 8th 9th: 101st Sanford S. (G3), 2yo, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Cocked and Loaded 3-1: Rivelli returns to NY with big buzz baby.. 6th Best Value: #1 Awesome Slew 10-1: Plesa/Live Oak bay can sit and rally.. 4th Next Best: #6 He's Comin in Hot 4-1 5th Exotics Use: #9 Twirling Cinnamon 10-1 8th 10th: 77th Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD) Classy set. I get that everyone is looking to beat Tepin -- and this is her sternest test yet -- but don't talk yourself into leaving her off multis. She's going to get first run on My Miss Sophia and can win if the closers (Stef, Matilda, Lara) are late arriving.. Most Likely: #2 Stephanie's Kitten 7-2 5th Next Best: #1 Tepin 3-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Lady Lara 10-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Waltzing Matilda 8-1 7th 11th: CLM, 3+, 7f An old fashioned, knockdown, drag out, straight $50k claimer going 7/8ths.. Racing as it's meant to be and a super-challenging end to the card.. Best Value: #4 Mordi's Miracle 10-1 4th Next Best: #5 Monster Mash 10-1 WON ($17.20) Exotics Use: #11 Regulus 6-1 8th Super Add: #2 Sailmate 10-1 6th P6 Grid: 6: 3 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C) 7: 1-5 (A), 7 (B), 11 (C) 8: 3 (A), 4-5 (B), 6-9-11 (C) 9: 8 (A), - (B), 1-6-9-11 (C) 10: 2 (A), 1 (B), 5-6-7 (C) 11: 4 (A), 5-11 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x1x2x3 = 54 x $2 = $108 Full (A/B/C): $118.00 P4 Grid: 8: 3-5 (A), 4-9 (B), 6-11 (C) 9: 8 (A), - (B), 1-6-7-9 (C) 10: 1-2 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C) 11: 4-5 (A), 2-10-11 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x5 = 80 x $.50 = $40 Full (A/B/C): $72 (With $1 All A's Play) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-25-2015 at 07:51 PM. 
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#2
07-25-2015, 09:56 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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