Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

I caught the $14.20, $17.40, and $7.60 winners of the 7th, 9th, and 10th, but missed the $7.60 winner of the 8th. (my single finished 2nd). Too bad I didn't go a little broader in the 8th; the $3900 payoff for 50c would have been a major turnaround in my stats.

Result for Aug 24: -$72
Overall results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

*******************************************
Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I caught the $14.20, $17.40, and $7.60 winners of the 7th, 9th, and 10th, but missed the $7.60 winner of the 8th. (my single finished 2nd). Too bad I didn't go a little broader in the 8th; the $3900 payoff for 50c would have been a major turnaround in my stats.

Result for Aug 24: -$72
Overall results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

*******************************************
Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

--Dunbar

I didn't like the 3 in the last either, and had a similar ticket to yours (keying the 4 & 6 in the feature), but the payoffs were poop today so I'm not crying about missing it. The 2 should have come down in the 10th which would have made a pretty good payoff.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I didn't like the 3 in the last either, and had a similar ticket to yours (keying the 4 & 6 in the feature), but the payoffs were poop today so I'm not crying about missing it. The 2 should have come down in the 10th which would have made a pretty good payoff.

I like the 3 better today than yesterday! ;>) Maybe I should have cut it more slack for "off slowly, bled".

I'm probably going too thin in the last today, too, Phil. I probably should go lighter in the first 3 legs and take "all" for the last. All first-timers, sheesh.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Previous results:
Total bets: $2188.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1196.70

*******************************************
Selections for Aug 25:

$1 each way

9) 2,4,6,8
10) 2,3,4,6,7
11) 4,6
12) 1,4,5,10

4x5x2x4=160. Total bet is $160

Caught the first 3 legs, but missed the last.

Result for Aug 25th: -$160

Overall results:
Total bets: $2348.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1356.70

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 26

50c each:

8) 1,2,4
9) 1,4,7,8
10) 1,3,4,6,8
11) 1,3,5

3x4x5x3=180. Total bet = $90

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

My effort for the day.

2,8
1,4
1,6,8
5

Six bucks

[Dunbar]

going to have to pass today. In Las Vegas, not enough time for even minimal capping.

Maybe tomorrow.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Overall results:
Total bets: $2348.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1356.70

*******************************************

Back from Vegas in time for one last shot!

Selections for Aug 26

50c each:

8) 1,2,4
9) 1,4,7,8
10) 1,3,4,6,8
11) 1,3,5

3x4x5x3=180. Total bet = $90

Lost, so current results are:
Total bets: $2438.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1446.70



Selections for Sept 3:

50c each
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 1,2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x2x6x4=240. bet = $120

$ each:
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 6
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x1x6x4=120. bet = $120

Total bet = $240

Despite my poor results, I'll be sorry to see this 4% takeout bet slip into oblivion.

Good luck to Pete and anyone else who jumped on this Ellis opportunity.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Total bets: $2438.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1446.70



Selections for Sept 3:

50c each
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 1,2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x2x6x4=240. bet = $120

$ each:
8) 1,3,5,6,8
9) 6
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7
11) 3,4,9,11

5x1x6x4=120. bet = $120

Total bet = $240

6-6-4-11 paid $246.70 for the $1 ticket. I made a whopping $6.70, which looks pretty good compared to my recent results. (A $1 win parlay would have paid just $101) Would've had a nicer payoff if the 7-5 fav hadn't won in my widest race, the 10th.

Final Ellis Pick-4 figs:
Total bets: $2678.50
Total return: $1238.50
Net loss: -$1440.00

I'll be surprised if Ellis does this again next summer. The level of support had to be disappointing, although I haven't seen figs comparing the total handle to the previous year.

In Las Vegas, you now see blackjack players sitting down to play a game where a blackjack pays 6:5 as if it doesn't matter that they are not getting the 3:2 offered nearby. (You'd think they'd regret the $15 they are shorted on a $50 natural!) You see video poker players sitting at a Jacks Or Better game with an 8-5 pay schedule, even though they could easily find a 9-6 pay schedule. It shouldn't have surprised me that horse players would continue to flock to 25% takeout even when 4% takeout is available. But it did surprise me. I thought we as a group were a notch above the casino lemmings.

--Dunbar