Seeing past Future Odds

[tywizard]

I've liked Scat Daddy for a long time now....enough to have a quite a win ticket on him from the 1st Future pool (44-1)....This has caused me to have scat daddy blinders and I'm afraid I'll overuse him on Saturday with hopes of hitting the future ticket - anyone else struggle with this?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I've liked Scat Daddy for a long time now....enough to have a quite a win ticket on him from the 1st Future pool (44-1)....This has caused me to have scat daddy blinders and I'm afraid I'll overuse him on Saturday with hopes of hitting the future ticket - anyone else struggle with this?

I don't follow. If Daddy wins, you're already going to cash on the future, so why does that make you inclined to overuse him on Derby Day?

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I've liked Scat Daddy for a long time now....enough to have a quite a win ticket on him from the 1st Future pool (44-1)....This has caused me to have scat daddy blinders and I'm afraid I'll overuse him on Saturday with hopes of hitting the future ticket - anyone else struggle with this?

tywiz,
I was going to wait to put this out, but having consulted my personal psychic, Madame Zelda and her very hot daughter, Fuzzy Lip, I have to give the results of the consultation. In order of finish, 1-6:

Nobiz
Dominican
Curlin
Street Sense
circular Quay
Scat Daddy

[tywizard]

Maybe it's just that I like him that much......My original point is that having a large ticket at 44-1 makes me hope that much more that he wins....which means he be on top in all exotics...

[philcski]

You've got a great position on the horse already. When I was in a similar spot in '04 (had Smarty at 150-1 and Limehouse at 80-1), I couldn't really decide what to do until the day of the race. Finally I decided the prudent thing to do would be hedge a little and played most exotics with others I liked and less than I normally would have with those 2... just a recommendation, not necessarily a requirement. Either way, good job on the future wager!

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Maybe it's just that I like him that much......My original point is that having a large ticket at 44-1 makes me hope that much more that he wins....which means he be on top in all exotics...

Gotcha. Sounds like you're psyching yourself out more than anything. Like Philcski said, you're already in a great position. If he wins, you're golden because those odds are about four times what others will be getting on him on Derby Day. I think that his suggestion is the best, hedge that bet with a couple of others on other horses that you think have the best chance to ruin your future ticket so that if Daddy loses you'll still come out with something. And if he does win, you're still banking.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I've liked Scat Daddy for a long time now....enough to have a quite a win ticket on him from the 1st Future pool (44-1)....This has caused me to have scat daddy blinders and I'm afraid I'll overuse him on Saturday with hopes of hitting the future ticket - anyone else struggle with this?

Looks like you found the right horse. I Wanted Sard Spun in tyhe Fiest future but 6/1 12/1 I felt I could get on Derby day. I havent lookd back but that is probably the best of the true contender odds you could have gotten. Looks like a great race for you to watch with a hedge or two with Him underneath several.