"Inside" information & misguided public?

[Linny]

Speaking of firsters... i was at the Big A yesterday with a skeptical (and often right) friend who works for an AQU trainer. She had the "outofthebox" firster that "dead heated" for second. The works were average but the breeding was great for a debut win. She doubted the works and was rewarded (though I think she was screwed by the DH, the horse ran second ) with the EX.
I had a bad day with maidens as Triumphal looked like the goods to me and was passed late. The winner saved some folks who really bet the other 1/2 of the entry. I did get to feed Triumphal some peppermints after the races and he thinks the jock asked him way too soon!

As for Bush, didn't he used to win first out at about 15%? If that's the case, he may have just hit a patch where some didn't fire as expected or ran into buzz saws. He may also have gotten a few "different" horses ie: a few owners decided to focus on distance racing or grass, where "win early" is very hard.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yeah, Bush was definitely better with firsters in the past. He's certainly more than capable with firsters and his current stats are definitely misleading.

The money that horse took, however, superceded everything else. If Tommy Walsh can win a 2YO maiden race on Traver's Day, the 10-1 Ommedon, then anything is possible. That horse may have been the livest double digit firster of all time.

[Linny]

When a Tommy Walsh firster is 10-1 it is live!
Thats like a Pletcher horse at 2-5.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Honu

But did the morning clockers know what the riders instructions were? Alot of times public and private clockers watch a horse work and they think they arent much but they dont know what the exercise riders or jockeys instructions were.
I cant tell you how many times I have worked a horse with another horse and the boss has said " listen this horse is going to run in 6 days DO NOT BEAT HIM " " dont even gallop out by him". Its important , I see private clockers all the time in the grandstand at Hollywood and to tell you the truth they remind me of pigeons , just lookin for somethin they can peck on.

this is a really good point..

especially the last sentence

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.

To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.

The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.

Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.

The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.

Well you should have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Well you ahould have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. .

great memory BTW. Lets see, December 31st 1994, I was 11 years old and probably begging my Mommy to let me stay up til midnight!

umm. also, if you give me a 35-1 and i hit i'll send you a percentage? Is that ok with u? (dont think my $20 win bet will effect the pool too much, unless the horse is at tampa)

[blackthroatedwind]

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

how about next time?

[Antitrust32]

also it doesnt have to be 35-1

i'll settle for 32-1

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

also it doesnt have to be 35-1

i'll settle for 32-1

You should maybe be hoping for 3:2.

[blackthroatedwind]

And, by the way, most of these " brilliant " opinions of mine lose.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You should maybe be hoping for 3:2.

ya actually.. i would love that.

I took a hit this weekend. not that i actually bet much. but i got frustrated cause i was going broke and i really dont own much money anyways.

I quit betting and started drinking more with cajun and gales. In the meantime i picked a 16-1 shot in the 9th at GP and then that 4 horse that beat Wilko at 9-1.

I picked the perfect time to quit gambling.

Like i texted my friend.. I suck at life.

[blackthroatedwind]

There's probably a bigger correlation between being good at the track and sucking at life. Trust me.......I have experience.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

how about next time?

LOL..This is FUNNY...This is like the most self-centered person on God's Green Earth,and you are expecting him to let you know a 35-1 shot can run? That is not gunna happen.He will be glad to f with your head afterwards though....About the topic(this thread,) I would say you need to know the circuit ya play very well.In SoCal,I would say the guy who most likes to play games is Craig Lewis. Look at this filly running on Wednesday...Marry Me Larry.She was a 1st time starter on 1/28 on a maiden claimer.He hid her deep(as usual for this guy.)He worked her on 1/17 5f in 103'1 (40th quickest of the day.) She was about the easiest winner you'll see(about as easy as that rag stakes filly today.)Comes back on 2/10 and works her in 47'2(2nd quickest of the day.)So,it isn't that he believes in working horses slowly.He works them slowly until they show they can run fast in the afternoon.I don't remember how he hid the action.She was like 12-1(which is not a lot of action for these,because he has hit 1st time with enough of them that they do take some money.)I am sure he put it in the p3,or pick 4,but I don't think he played it at the track.He could have easily gotten 20-1(or more) at an exchange etc.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's probably a bigger correlation between being good at the track and sucking at life. Trust me.......I have experience.

Most people do suck at life, or at least get their ass kicked by it repeatedly.

I think the horses secretly know this and make fun of us on the backstretch and in their paddocks at night.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

I was at Aqueduct today but it could have been happened anywhere. There was a first time starter listed at something like 8-1 in the ML and went off at close to 2-1. As my friend was walking away from the windows he over heard some one saying that the trainer had put $$$ down on the horse. He also said that the he heard someone say that the morning clocker was given the wrong name for the horse when this horse worked out in the morning. There was no way this horse would have been bet down with the published works 1:03 +/- for the last two work.

I guess I wouldn't have cared or bothered to post this if the horse didn't win but it actually won and and won for fun, I think the horse drew off by 8 - 10 lengths.

My questions to you guys are:

Do you think this is a common practice among certain trainers and is it unaoivdable?

Should we basically ignore the published work outs horse in the mornings?

LOL well i know you dont expect it to be published info when any1 in the barn is gonna bet trainer included but ill answer your questions. some trainers to work their horses slow, even some of the top ones, big example:asmussen! here locally in chicago mike reavis' whos one of the top trainers here works em slow! i wouldnt say completely ignore workouts but focus more on the work pattern than the times. focusing on the times cant hurt alot unless if you know the shape of the track each individual morning which might be way different come a few hours when the races start. best advice i can give which seems quite obvious is dont invest large chunks of your bankroll into maiden races

[Payson Dave]

Imho.. How a horse works is more important than the time of the workout...might have been a slow first eighth of a published 5F work that was actually a 4F work...Certain barns frequently will work a horse from different poles and not ending at the finish line....what gets published is usually the portion that ends at the finish... For the most part the clockers do try to get it right.
On the NY circuit at least...When it comes to maidens, the money in the exotic pools almost always seems to show who is live.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Well you should have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

I was the one with the friend with the 35-1 shot. I sat at a table with her, going over the races and she didn't say a word to me until the horse was 2 lengths in front! She didn't give him to me!