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#1
02-14-2007, 08:24 PM
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My Derby Trend.....
Every year, I get to hear all of these mindless stats and trends regarding the Kentucky Derby and past winners of the race. From lame, unsound, and useless pedigree numbers ('sup dosage index!) which eliminate practically no one, to the number of syllables in a horses name, right down to whether or not the horse has had his family jewels lopped off.
Instead of focusing on the two things that matter most---they being the horses overall ability, and the likelyhood that he will or will not thrive in what typically is a fast paced race, run at the demanding 10 furlong distance.--- people often want to focus on unimportant stuff. I've seen some otherwise sensible bettors do some pretty stupid things--such as letting workouts, post positions, and even trainer interviews change their opinions on how they intend to bet the race. So, for the hell of it, I decided I'd discover my own little Derby trend. Since I make my living betting on horses, my trend is going to have to be based on sound logic, and will have to make more than a sliver of sense. And so I found one. And here it is in all it's glory....it's based on a belief of mine that the vast majority of horses will tip their hand on the true ability they have, within the first two starts of their career.  In case you are wondering which current 3-year-old fits the trend and is going to be our next Kentucky Derby winner.....the answer is NONE OF THEM! That's right, the high and mighty DrugS Derby trend clearly shows that no one in this current crop is good enough to win the Derby. But, as well all know, someone is going to have to win it. I guess I'll just have to go back to my old ways of evaluating horses and handicapping the Kentucky Derby. 
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#2
02-14-2007, 08:26 PM
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So, I guess that means you'll be betting the chalk.
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#3
02-14-2007, 08:28 PM
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Keep it up....
And I will go photoshop on you about the merits of Appealing Zophie, and her dazzling 2nd place finish at 3-to-10 odds, at Delta Downs
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#4
02-14-2007, 08:30 PM
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Nothing like trends. Most are meaningless.
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#5
02-14-2007, 08:36 PM
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Yes,
However, it would be a little interesting if one of these Derby horses this year was actually close enough to almost fit the trend. I guess Adore The Gold, Day Pass, Nobiz Like Shobiz, and perhaps Belgravia aren't miles away from fitting it.
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#6
02-14-2007, 09:05 PM
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Not entirely.. Fads are meaningless.. Trends tend be impactful..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
02-14-2007, 09:06 PM
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Hybrid Mode
