1/13: Gulfstream Park

[Scav]

Horse that could easily outrun her odds on Saturday. It is a very competitive day at Gulfstream on Saturday...

Race 4

#6 Sweet Valentine (15/1 ML): Again, as I have said many times, Castro on the lawn. This horses line is pretty bad but Castro is not getting aboard for his health. SV worked well last out, 2nd off a layoff and making the 'ultimate' drop in racing.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't want to talk you off big price horses but I have a history with this horse because I felt they didn't try in his debut. I will give you that she was a bit wide at Aqueduct last time, and this field aint much, but the distance and ability are MAJOR questions.

If you would like to indulge me, watch the replay of Pretty Face Fay's debut....it's a doozy.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't want to talk you off big price horses but I have a history with this horse because I felt they didn't try in his debut. I will give you that she was a bit wide at Aqueduct last time, and this field aint much, but the distance and ability are MAJOR questions.

If you would like to indulge me, watch the replay of Pretty Face Fay's debut....it's a doozy.

Hilarious BTW. Surprised Elvis didn't sit down

My main reasons for 'touting' SW is that she hasn't gotten a good trip at all, and I think Castro might make the difference here. If you toss her last at Aqueduct becuase of an extreme rail bias, you have a horse that needs a trip to win, and in the 6 hole, where she might get a 2w2w trip, and possibly at 15/1 or higher, I think she is a little playable, given the minimal talent she has shown. I agree regarding the distance though, it is a major question mark

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Hilarious BTW. Surprised Elvis didn't sit down

My main reasons for 'touting' SW is that she hasn't gotten a good trip at all, and I think Castro might make the difference here. If you toss her last at Aqueduct becuase of an extreme rail bias, you have a horse that needs a trip to win, and in the 6 hole, where she might get a 2w2w trip, and possibly at 15/1 or higher, I think she is a little playable, given the minimal talent she has shown. I agree regarding the distance though, it is a major question mark

I don't think there was a rail bias on the turf at Aqueduct but ground loss on that turf course can be taxing and the horse was attacking. However, it was most likely attacking because at best it is a sprinter.

In general, the horses that run in the turf sprint maiden races in NY are both not terrific and have trouble stretching. Obviously this isn't a RULE, and I don't believe in rules, but those sprint maiden races have proven very weak over time.

[golfer]

It's another Saturday at Gulfstream. Here it goes....

1st: evenly matched field, a couple lay-off horses, #8 Without a doubt seems the most likely winner, with #3 Rumspringa... longsthot possibility, #4 Samba Jones

2nd: #4 Mattingly will be favorite, should be the best, use 9, 10, 11 & 12 underneath.

3rd: 3 favorites (3,7 &8) are the 3 fastest.. #5 Diamond Spirit is interesting, just ran last week on turf.

4th: #10 Miss Buddhafull is fastest coming in, 6-1 ml.. #7 Film at eleven, may be interesting longshot stretching out & switching to turf

5th: #9 Arcata ran big in slop in last at Del..could go backwards, use if price, #6 Mister White Sox, and #3 Our Sacred Honor both solid.

6th: A bunch of dangerous, expensive first time starters in here, #9 Vicarian ran big on poly 2 back, then reacted.

7th: another very tough race, #2 On a cloud, very fast last year in 2 races in Europe, adds Lasix, #7 Prop me up is fast on both dirt and turf, #5 Ebony Rose ran big in last... longshot #9 Miss Belga bound

8th:#7 Chelokee is fastest coming in, repeat of either of the last 2 can win this, #'s 1, 4 and 6 all dangerous.

9th: favorite #10 Naissance Royale is the fastest coming in, but outside post & cross country ship may make her vulnerable, loved #2 Royal Wave's pattern leading up to last start, when she hit the gate when it opened losing all chance, #9 Factual contender, 2nd start for Tagg, could improve.

10th: another maiden race littered with firsters, #4 Backlash broke poorly and checked in his debut, can win here (hopefully).

That's the story, good luck to all.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think there was a rail bias on the turf at Aqueduct but ground loss on that turf course can be taxing and the horse was attacking. However, it was most likely attacking because at best it is a sprinter.

In general, the horses that run in the turf sprint maiden races in NY are both not terrific and have trouble stretching. Obviously this isn't a RULE, and I don't believe in rules, but those sprint maiden races have proven very weak over time.

I was talking about his last dirt race where he was a bizillion wide but tried to get to the lead 4w and the rail just didn't stop, I am tossing that race.

Maybe she will love the warm weather?

Dell, I am going to root for MG today

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Scav

I was talking about his last dirt race where he was a bizillion wide but tried to get to the lead 4w and the rail just didn't stop, I am tossing that race.

Maybe she will love the warm weather?

Dell, I am going to root for MG today

Scav, What about Gold Hornet. I know you gave him out as a single in a PK3 two starts back at the Throne which paid decent.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Ewww. Yeah doozy is a way to describe it. I actually remember the Gorham horse as well. Let me ask you BTW. I know technically the horse is dropping from MSW to MCLM, but the state bred MSW's aren't exactly the most talented fields so do you consider this a drop? I actually look at it as a rise.

This is not a drop...in fact it's probably a tougher field.

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is not a drop...in fact it's probably a tougher field.

well said. Scavs this is a NY bred filly running with open company the first time. Don't think that qualifies as any sort of drop. Wonder if Elvis had any nightmares last night? You gonna root for Mystery G. today?