3/11-13 (CD): Future Wager ~ Derby Pool #4/Lone Oaks Pool

[Kasept]

Here’s the complete Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 field (with trainer and morning line odds):

#1 Barber Road (John Ortiz, 50-1);
#2 Call Me Midnight (Keith Desormeaux, 50-1);
#3 Charge It (Todd Pletcher, 30-1);
#4 Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, 15-1);
#5 Cyberknife (Brad Cox, 50-1);
#6 Early Voting (Chad Brown, 30-1);

#7 Emmanuel (Pletcher, 15-1);
#8 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, 8-1);
#9 Ethereal Road (D. Wayne Lukas, 50-1);
#10 Forbidden Kingdom (Mandella, 5-1);
#11 In Due Time (Kelly Breen, 30-1);
#12 Major General (Pletcher, 50-1);

#13 Mo Donegal (Pletcher, 12-1);
#14 Morello (Asmussen, 10-1);
#15 Pioneer of Medina (Pletcher, 30-1);
#16 Rattle N Roll (Kenny McPeek, 20-1);
#17 Shipsational (Ed Barker, 50-1);
#18 Simplification (Antonio Sano, 12-1);

#19 Smile Happy (McPeek, 6-1);
#20 Un Ojo (Ricky Courville, 50-1);
#21 White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr., 15-1);
#22 Zandon (Brown, 12-1);
#23 Zozos (Cox, 50-1);
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (6-1)



Here’s the field for the KOFW (with trainer and morning line odds):

#1 A Mo Reay (Todd Pletcher, 30-1);
#2 Ain’t Easy (Phil D’Amato, 20-1);
#3 Awake At Midnyte (Doug O’Neill, 20-1);
#4 Bernabreezy (Matt Shirer, 50-1);
#5 Bubble Rock (Brad Cox, 30-1);
#6 Classy Edition (Pletcher, 15-1);

#7 Echo Zulu (Asmussen, 4-1);
#8 Fannie and Freddie (Al Stall Jr., 30-1);
#9 Favor (Pletcher, 20-1);
#10 Goddess of Fire (Pletcher, 20-1);
#11 Hidden Connection (Bret Calhoun, 50-1);
#12 Ice Orchid (John Ortiz, 50-1);

#13 Juju’s Map (Cox, 10-1);
#14 Kathleen O. (Shug McGaughey, 8-1);
#15 Nest (Pletcher, 8-1);
#16 Nostalgic (Bill Mott, 20-1);
#17 Sandstone (Kenny McPeek, 15-1);
#18 Secret Oath (Lukas, 6-1);

#19 Shahama (Pletcher, 30-1);
#20 Turnerloose (Cox, 15-1);
#21 Venti Valentine (Jorge Abreu, 15-1);
#22 Veterans Highway (Rusty Arnold, 50-1);
#23 Yuugiri (Rodolphe Brisset, 50-1);
#24 “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (10-1)

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 odds
(No., Horse, Trainer, P1, P2, P3, P4)

1. Barber Road, J. Ortiz, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 63-1, 39-1
2. Call Me Midnight, K. Desormeaux, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 56-1, 68-1
3. Charge It, T. Pletcher, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 17-1
4. Classic Causeway, B. Lynch, 44-1, 51-1, 13-1, 10-1
5. Cyberknife, B. Cox, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 36-1
6. Early Voting, C. Brown, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 19-1, 19-1

7. Emmanuel, T. Pletcher, 3-5(f), 17-1, 15-1, 33-1
8. Epicenter, S. Asmussen, 52-1, 24-1, 24-1, 13-1
9. Ethereal Road, D. Lukas, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 32-1
10. Forbidden Kingdom, R. Mandella, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 18-1, 7-1
11. In Due Time, K. Breen, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 37-1, 48-1
12. Major General, T. Pletcher, 43-1, 41-1, 32-1, 65-1

13. Mo Donegal, T. Pletcher, 37-1, 23-1, 14-1, 24-1
14. Morello, S. Asmussen, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 17-1
15. Pioneer of Medina, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 71-1
16. Rattle N Roll, K. McPeek, 21-1, 20-1, 19-1, 31-1
17. Shipsational, E. Barker, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 51-1
18. Simplification, A. Sano, 3-5(f), 43-1, 43-1, 19-1

19. Smile Happy, K. McPeek, 8-1, 8-1, 8-1, 6-1
20. Un Ojo, R. Courville, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 36-1
21. White Abarrio, S. Joseph, 3-5(f), 171-1, 18-1, 22-1
22. Zandon, C. Brown, 56-1, 25-1, 21-1, 22-1
23. Zozos, B. Cox, 3-5(f), 9-5(f), 2-1(f), 30-1
24. Field (all others), n/a, 3-5, 9-5, 2-1, 4-1

[Kasept]

Kentucky Oaks Futures final odds
(No., Horse, Trainer, CD M/L)

1. A Mo Reay, T. Pletcher, 36-1
2. Ain’t Easy, P. D’Amato, 27-1
3. Awake At Midnyte, D. O’Neill, 45-1
4. Bernabreezy, M. Shirer, 84-1
5. Bubble Rock, B. Cox, 37-1
6. Classy Edition, T. Pletcher, 38-1

7. Echo Zulu, S. Asmussen, 5-2
8. Fannie and Freddie, A. Stall, 154-1
9. Favor, T. Pletcher, 71-1
10. Goddess of Fire, T. Pletcher, 51-1
11. Hidden Connection, B. Calhoun, 41-1
12. Ice Orchid, J. Ortiz, 88-1

13. Juju’s Map, B. Cox, 22-1
14. Kathleen O., S. McGaughey, 9-1
15. Nest, T. Pletcher, 14-1
16. Nostalgic, B. Mott, 46-1
17. Sandstone, K. McPeek, 81-1
18. Secret Oath, D. Lukas, 7-2

19. Shahama, F. Nass, 24-1
20. Turnerloose, B. Cox, 24-1
21. Venti Valentine, J. Abreu, 15-1
22. Veterans Highway, R. Arnold, 93-1
23. Yuugiri, R. Brisset, 108-1
24. Field (all others), n/a, 6-1

[blackthroatedwind]

Classic Causeway at 10:1 is remarkable. People actually saw his race on Saturday and said "yup, this is the Derby winner." They actually think the fourth best of four speed horses potentially lined up for this race was around 10% to win the 10F KY Derby. They think he's more likely to win than Epicenter ( 13:1 ) who feels about ten times as likely to win. Sure, Forbidden Kingdom is overbet at 7:1 ( he's the lone legit West Coast horse so that makes a certain amount of sense ) but he's a helluva lot more likely to win than Classic Causeway. Even Early Voting ( 19:1 ) is more likely to win as, unlike Classic Causeway, he hasn't given further evidence that he is not. What is the argument for him besides "He really looked good at Tampa" beating Grantham, Shipsational. Golden Glider, and Trademark. One of those four that were reasonably close behind him, after he was allowed to dictate in a moderate pace, is in the Derby futures pool....and he's ( rightfully ) over 50:1.

I get that basically all these horses are undervalued, and one bettor is making Smile Happy the underlay of underlays....except my guess is that multiple bettors are making Classic Causeway about 10% of his actual chances of winning this race. Who knows, maybe all the right horses won't make the gate....and even then 10:1 feels hard to justify.

[knickslions2]

Its no surprise that Causeway is 10-1 because it always happens when a horse wins near the close of these pools especially since it was the only prep this weekend. I do think the horse has some upside. He didn't break a sweat in that race and seemed to have lots left. The horse breaks very well which is always a plus at the derby. Conditions were not good especially with the wind. Obviously the figures will need to get better but the horse did what he needed in those two Tampa races. I think this horse can progress from here and wouldnt surprise me to be a contender.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Its no surprise that Causeway is 10-1 because it always happens when a horse wins near the close of these pools especially since it was the only prep this weekend. I do think the horse has some upside. He didn't break a sweat in that race and seemed to have lots left. The horse breaks very well which is always a plus at the derby. Conditions were not good especially with the wind. Obviously the figures will need to get better but the horse did what he needed in those two Tampa races. I think this horse can progress from here and wouldnt surprise me to be a contender.

I agree with you there but would never bet that horse at 10/1. Assuming he makes it to the Derby, what are the chances he’ll be near or above 10/1 on Derby day? I’d say pretty good.

That said, I broke from tradition and decided to put some money on the field this weekend. It was 5/1 when I bet and ended at 4/1. But I feel unimpressed with a lot of these horses, already have Simplification at 43/1, and think there is a chance the Lukas filly or one of the Baffert horses gets in (under another trainer) so I kind of liked that bet. I’ll probably regret it but it wasn’t a huge bet.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Its no surprise that Causeway is 10-1 because it always happens when a horse wins near the close of these pools especially since it was the only prep this weekend. I do think the horse has some upside. He didn't break a sweat in that race and seemed to have lots left. The horse breaks very well which is always a plus at the derby. Conditions were not good especially with the wind. Obviously the figures will need to get better but the horse did what he needed in those two Tampa races. I think this horse can progress from here and wouldnt surprise me to be a contender.

Yes, recency affects dopes, I get that. Of course he has upside, it's March of his 3YO season, and he's only run five times. Unfortunately for him, this also applies to every other horse that is already better than him. I don't know what "he didn't break a sweat in that race" means but I know it's not a sound handicapping concept ( nor is it true ). I don't know what " he seemed to have lots left" means either but it sounds like trainer or jockey speak to me and it doesn't mean anything either.

Once again, you're missing the point. He has the same running style as three horses, two of which are definitely better ( please tell me Epicenter "broke a sweat" and "didn't have lots left" ) and another who appears to be superior but needs to prove it more definitively. Unless at least two of Epicenter, Forbidden Kingdom, and Early Voting don't make the Derby ( which is possible ) his task, even if he was good enough, would likely be nearly impossible. The fact that he has shown himself to be inferior to at least two of them, both of whom won even more easily, one clearly against better horses, makes his chances almost nil.

He's a good horse. I won't be shocked if he wins races like the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens, both major Grade 1 races, but he's not winning this KY Derby as things stand now. I'm not sure what kind of sound logic argues against that.

[blackthroatedwind]

So Classic Causeway faced better horses today, in a more contentious pace, and didn't make it past 6F. I rest my case.

At least now they can point for the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens.