Del Mar $300+K Pick 6 Payout

[moses]

https://www.dmtc.com/media/stable-ne...t-del-mar-1657

I’m trying to wrap my head around this...and Twitter is full of some theories...but how does someone make a $65,000 bet into a $100,000 carryover on a jackpot wager where you need a single ticket winner to take down the jackpot?

[Kasept]

CAW action.. Same as the story from 2 weeks ago: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68216

“Approximately 70 percent were made in the traditional $2 increment. The rest were in various denominations of $4, $6, $8, $10, $12, $14, $16, $24, $26, and $60.”

[Kasept]

The Hegarty follow up to the Del Mar & Pleasanton hits: https://www.drf.com/news/jackpot-pay...ering-programs

Jackpot payouts put spotlight on computer-assisted wagering programs

Matt Hegarty
Jul 31, 2020

Two recent takedowns of jackpot pools in California by the operators of computer-assisted wagering programs have swung the spotlight back on an issue that continues to frustrate many horseplayers despite the longtime presence of the programs in parimutuel pools worldwide.

The jackpot payouts, at Pleasanton two weeks ago and last Sunday at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, both paid out the entire, single-ticket pool when one CAW operator had the same combination at a multiple of the minimum bet. In the case of Pleasanton, the winning ticket had two of the same combinations at the minimum 20-cent base price, while at Del Mar the winning ticket was bet at an $8 denomination, four times the $2 minimum.

For some, the two payouts have rekindled concerns about the influence and access of CAW operators, which receive outsized rebates on their handle and use programs based on sophisticated algorithms to devise deep and expensive wagering plays. The programs typically use direct-data feeds to onload thousands of bets into the pools just before post.

Regulators at the California Horse Racing Board, reacting to conspiratorial talk on social media, reviewed both winning tickets and found them in compliance with the state’s rules for awarding jackpot bets, according to the board’s spokesman, Mike Marten.

But the outcry over the bets was so heated that Marten posted a three-part statement on social media Monday night detailing that the Del Mar bet was made by a CAW operators that spent $29,652 on 8,361 combinations. The denominations of the bets ranged from $60 down to the $2 minimum, and the winning bet – which included horses that were logical in every race – was played for $8.

CAWs use weighted probabilities to determine the amount of each bet, because the programs are designed to cash bets: With sizeable rebates and enormous daily activity, the programs are merely trying to churn out an annual return in the 2 to 4 percent range. The greater the probability that a wager will be successful, the larger the amount of the bet.

[moses]

I guess I was aware of the CAWs but had never really read up on how they operate and seem to be dependent on the rebates that they get from tracks.

The theory on Twitter is that these entities have access to betting information that average gamblers don’t have access to (i.e. combinations that aren’t covered). I don’t think I buy that because they could construct smaller tickets than a $65,000 ticket if they were simply trying to take advantage of that information. If that were true, it would basically kill horse racing, imo.

More than anything, I think it highlights why no one should wager on the jackpot bets unless it’s a mandatory payout. With the CAW pumping in $65,000 wagers on a regular non-payout day, there’s almost no way you’ll have a single ticket winner so you’ll be paying the 30% carryover fee.

[Dahoss]

I’m not a pick 6 player and never have been. But after what I’ve seen these last few months I’m not sure how anyone puts money into these bets.

Competing against CAW’s in a carryover or non carryover situation seems foolish to me. You’re going to a gunfight with a knife.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

I guess I was aware of the CAWs but had never really read up on how they operate and seem to be dependent on the rebates that they get from tracks.

The theory on Twitter is that these entities have access to betting information that average gamblers don’t have access to (i.e. combinations that aren’t covered). I don’t think I buy that because they could construct smaller tickets than a $65,000 ticket if they were simply trying to take advantage of that information. If that were true, it would basically kill horse racing, imo.

More than anything, I think it highlights why no one should wager on the jackpot bets unless it’s a mandatory payout. With the CAW pumping in $65,000 wagers on a regular non-payout day, there’s almost no way you’ll have a single ticket winner so you’ll be paying the 30% carryover fee.

"the theory on Twitter" is pretty a pretty scary concept.

[Alabama Stakes]

Are those bots the reason all those numbers were covered in the late pick 5 at Saratoga on Friday?

[jms62]

Having access to that information and a computer. How can you trust this bet any longer. Someone associated with the track can.

1. Force carry by covering single tickets
2. Cover any uncovered.