Glorious Goodwood

[my miss storm cat]

Card for tomorrow...

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/m...014/fast-cards

Kinda strange to see Wigmore Hall listed as the longest shot on the board (the 13:55).

Personally I can't wait for Thursday and Friday so will simply wish Kingman the best of luck for tomorrow (odds won't be worth playing) and leave it at that.

Anyone playing?

[Kitan]

Didn't have a great deal of time to look at Tuesday's card so I spent most of it on the two two year old races where I think there might be value.

Race 2:
#5 Fast Act showed promise on debut and confirmed that with a good win two back. Was no match for Tiggy Wiggy last time but I don't think anything else in here would have done much better. Around 14/1 with most bookmakers and that is fantastic value.
#1 Beacon is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not convinced by what he's beaten so far and odds-on is not worth it.
#3 Cotai Glory is finally showing his ability and the drop down back to 5f will suit.
#8 Spirit of Xian is the least heralded of the three Hannon runners but could sneak a good race at around 20/1. On paper this filly didn't run a step last out in France, but the race wasn't that bad as speed heavily dominated on a wet track. The return to 5f will help, and hopefully the blinkers do too.

Think a box here will suit while also using the 5 as a key.

Race 5: These baby maidens in the UK are always tough as there is limited data available, but I could see some prices coming in here.
#8 Koptoon has a good 2yo pedigree and Dascombe can get them ready early. Will be at least double digits.
#10 Misleading is another with a good young pedigree and is well regarded by a top outfit. Buick didn't give much away in his blog, but he is taking money with the bookies.
#14 Sirdaab was the top priced City Zip yearling at the Keeneland September sales, and his second dam did win a 5f turf sprint. Average amount of interest in the betting at around 14/1.
I'll use those on top with the following underneath:
#1 Acaster Malbis: Hughes lands on this of the three Hannon runners which signals something, but he may want further distance.
#4 Dark Profit is another who is well regarded and showed much improvement last out. Very dangerous if he can step forward again.
#11 Moodrick may want further than the 6f but I just couldn't not use him.
#12 Mutafarrej is getting a suspicious amount of talk and money, which is why I'll use him because I can't off that form.
#15 Winstanley is one of those that I don't like but I don't want to get beaten by either.

8, 10, 14 with 1, 4, 11, 12, 15 used underneath.


Also---Kingman runs on Wednesday.

[my miss storm cat]

Nice call with Misleading and yes, thank you for the correction re Kingman!

[Kitan]

Thanks. Would have been nice if the 4 held second or if the 8 kept on though.

I played overnight (on TAB) because I wasn't going to be up early. Just seeing that Cotai Glory was 2-1 in the North American commingled pools, and 9-2 on the TAB. At least the 5 held second and spiced up the exotics.

[Kitan]

Wednesday

Race 1:
I didn't really look at this race too much, but it caught my eye that #5 Lion Beacon has a good record over this course which is always important. Worth a couple of dollars at at least 15-1.

Race 2:
#2 Cloudscape has a huge kick in him, and unfortunately last time he was unleashed too late as he was hemmed in for most of the straight. Was a very impressive run on replay. If he gets clear run I can see him bursting away. Good price at 5-1 or upwards.
#8 Windshear has never been worse than second in six starts, and that consistency gives him value at a few points under 10-1.
#3 Observational is an improving sort who beat a decent horse in Marzocco last out on this course. Just a little scared by the fact that Doyle stays on #6, whose form line I've never really liked. Also hasn't run since May 23rd.
I think that #7 Somewhat is a very beatable potential favourite here as there is other pace for him to deal with and he was well beaten by #2 in the Tercentenary. Ran a blinder at 100-1 last time, but he needs to prove he can do it again.

Kingman to beat Toronado in Race 3. No value there...

#1 Ahlan Emarati, #5 Highland Reel, and #8 Tupi are the top three in the betting in Race 4 and I can easily see them filling the first three places.

Race 5 is another race where I can see the top choices in the Market, #4 Hundi and #12 Shahah, taking the top spots. #1 and #13 are interesting, but more for the future as they should want further.

Race 6:
William Buick has written a few good words in his blog about #5 Water Hole and he is currently the top choice in the wagering. I think 9f might test his stamina but the expensive weanling purchase rates a big chance.
#15 Alquimia and #16 Hedge End both get in with 108 lbs after the apprentice claims and that is a definite boost to their upset chances at nearly 20-1 each.

Race 7:
Similar to Race 1 in the sense that #19 Bravo Echo's record at Goodwood caught my eye and he's up around 25-1.
#20 Little Shambles is 2 for 2 at the distance on dry tracks, albeit both at Catterick, and alternates good/bad performances. Form says it should be good today.

[Kitan]

#5 faded easily in the 1st.
#2 hung big time in the 2nd.
Was straightforward in the 3rd. Boy Kingman is a good horse.
1st and 2nd in the 4th.
2nd and 3rd in the 5th.
#5 was SCR, but #16 came 2nd at a good price in the 6th.
#19 was SCR in the 7th.

[Pants II]

Race 4
$1 ex box 5,6,7
$10 wp 6

[Pants II]

7-some shi.thead mush-5-6

It's turning into a running joke at this point.

[my miss storm cat]

I suck worse here than at Saratoga...