Odds Bernardini Races As A 4 Year Old?

randallscott35 · #1 08-29-2006, 06:28 PM

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

#2 08-29-2006, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

I really dont know!

1st_Saturday_in_May · #3 08-29-2006, 06:29 PM

If he were owned by anyone other than the richest men in the world. 0%

Since he's owned by the bottomless money pit that is Darley. 35%-40%

Betsy · #4 08-29-2006, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

Oh, I hope you are wrong - I think the odds are much higher than that. I think the Sheikh is so proud of this horse in particular (as he is a homebred Classic winner) and he's getting such a kick out of Bernardini's races that he will definitely run next year. He knows this colt might become truly great and wouldn't he want to own that kind of horse? I will say this - if Bernardini is retired, I will be extremely disillusioned. I have to admit that I would be bitter and I'm not sure how I could enjoy racing in 2007.

Suffolk Shippers · #5 08-29-2006, 07:21 PM

There is no doubt in my mind they will take a stab at the Dubai World Cup on their home turf next March and maybe then call it a career.

Danzig · #6 08-29-2006, 07:33 PM

maybe about $20 million to one....

rich people like more money just as much as anyone.

it's not about the money, it's also about darley @ jonabell. torn down and completely rebuilt according to what the sheik wanted. who better to be showcased there, than his first classic race winner???

sumitas · #7 08-29-2006, 07:37 PM

The Dubai World Cup resonates with me insofar as Bern goes.

Gander · #8 08-29-2006, 07:41 PM

Darley doesn't need stud money

A lot of people who dont need money breed their horses as early as possible. Its called greed my man. Greed. Some people with absolutely no lives and fulfilling human relationships, but have tons of money like to keep it coming and coming.

Danzig · #9 08-29-2006, 07:41 PM

naaah. the sheik can win that with someone else...funny isn't it that when the top three were mentioned the other day, no electrocutionist....

Phalaris1913 · #10 08-29-2006, 09:22 PM

The horse has some risk factors for early injury; the question may be whether he can race next year.

#11 08-29-2006, 09:30 PM

I am with Oracle, I really dont know. If he does race as a 4 year old then I doubt we will see him after the Dubai World Cup.

Betsy · #12 08-29-2006, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I am with Oracle, I really dont know. If he does race as a 4 year old then I doubt we will see him after the Dubai World Cup.

I don't think that makes much sense - isn't the World Cup in March? They'd spend all that time preparing him for one race and then, after it's over, Bernardini would need time to let down...........not much time for him to acclimate to a completely new lifestyle before taking up stud duties. I don't like it.

I see absolutely no benefit to the Sheikh retiring Bernardini after this year; he really shouldn't be afraid of his colt suffering injuries on the track. Of course it can happen, but look what happened to St. Liam. Horses are fragile no matter whether they are on the track or at stud. If he's the sportsman I think, he'll run Bernardini next year - this could be a truly great horse. I'd like to think that the Sheikh would want to see his own homebred acclaimed an all-time champion......how proud he is already, can you imagine what it would be like next year? Fans would flock to the track to see Bernardini; he's already immensely popular. If for no other reason than ego, the Sheikh should run his colt.

Cajungator26 · #13 08-30-2006, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy

I don't think that makes much sense - isn't the World Cup in March? They'd spend all that time preparing him for one race and then, after it's over, Bernardini would need time to let down...........not much time for him to acclimate to a completely new lifestyle before taking up stud duties. I don't like it.

I see absolutely no benefit to the Sheikh retiring Bernardini after this year; he really shouldn't be afraid of his colt suffering injuries on the track. Of course it can happen, but look what happened to St. Liam. Horses are fragile no matter whether they are on the track or at stud. If he's the sportsman I think, he'll run Bernardini next year - this could be a truly great horse. I'd like to think that the Sheikh would want to see his own homebred acclaimed an all-time champion......how proud he is already, can you imagine what it would be like next year? Fans would flock to the track to see Bernardini; he's already immensely popular. If for no other reason than ego, the Sheikh should run his colt.

I would say that what happened to St. Liam was more rare than an injury on the track. We have come to expect injuries on the track, but I don't think that anyone would have ever thought they would see something like that happen to St. Liam. I agree with you though about Bernardini racing as a 4 year old. I think that if he is sound, they'll run him.

slotdirt · #14 08-30-2006, 10:02 AM

Seems like it's been a crazy year even in the stallion biz, right? The altercation with the two stallions up in NY, and heck, Jambalaya Jazz was killed by lightning earlier this year!

Betsy · #15 08-30-2006, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I would say that what happened to St. Liam was more rare than an injury on the track. We have come to expect injuries on the track, but I don't think that anyone would have ever thought they would see something like that happen to St. Liam. I agree with you though about Bernardini racing as a 4 year old. I think that if he is sound, they'll run him.

Well, that's true, Cajungator. Still, the Sheikh strikes me (as he does most of us, I think) as someone who understands the risks involved in racing but is willing to take them to enjoy the great rewards that come with owning a horse like Bernardini.

One thing I found funny in Steve Davidowitz' article in DRF: he thinks that Invasor and Bernardini are heading for a showdown in the Gold Cup so that the Sheikhs can decide who to point for the Classic. IMO, that's nonsense. They are both East Coast horses and this race is the logical stepping stone; both horses, if healthy, will be running in the Classic.

slotdirt · #16 08-30-2006, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

I don't think Bernardini will ever have a big following outside the racing world, mostly because of his owners. I mean, where's the great story there? Sheikhs buy blueblood stock and the horse is pretty good. That doesn't capture anybody's imagination.

randallscott35 · #17 08-30-2006, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't think Bernardini will ever have a big following outside the racing world, mostly because of his owners. I mean, where's the great story there? Sheikhs buy blueblood stock and the horse is pretty good. That doesn't capture anybody's imagination.

An excellent point. I would say that the racing world does matter to me, so a following even in that realm would be something....Heck, Cigar won all the time and he didn't develop the kind of following you would expect.

slotdirt · #18 08-30-2006, 11:16 AM

Bernardini will never be as popular as Cigar even in the American horse racing world for a variety of reasons. First, he won't win 16 races in a row. Second, again, he's owned by a Sheikh. I realize Sheikh "mo" as some like to call him is practically American, but still, it's not like the Chapmans or Sackatoga or the Cash is King gang. Those three horses I just mentioned are probably the three most popular horses among the general public in the last ten years, and it was 100 percent because the average joe could probably identify with the underdog story.

#19 08-30-2006, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Bernardini will never be as popular as Cigar even in the American horse racing world for a variety of reasons. First, he won't win 16 races in a row. Second, again, he's owned by a Sheikh. I realize Sheikh "mo" as some like to call him is practically American, but still, it's not like the Chapmans or Sackatoga or the Cash is King gang. Those three horses I just mentioned are probably the three most popular horses among the general public in the last ten years, and it was 100 percent because the average joe could probably identify with the underdog story.

I think it could be different this time. Bernardini is potentially capable of accomplishing more than Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, or Afleet Alex. He is being compared to the greatest of all-time; that is premature, but it could be the case. He reminds me of Spectacular Bid. I never thought that about the other horses just mentioned . In my mind, he is from another place and could be truly great. True, this is just my opinion, but I have not felt this way about a horse since The Bid.

slotdirt · #20 08-30-2006, 11:40 AM

Who is comparing him to the greatest of all time? He's no Spectacular Bid, at least not in my book. That's just crazy talk.