Just how much faster are horses now?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's amazing when you look at the Thoro-Graph sheets and you hear Jerry Brown make his claims about how wildly faster racehorses are now than they were just 10 years ago.

John's Burger - recently won a pair of $5,000 starter alw races going six furlongs at Mountaineer. He earned a negative 2.5 and negative 2 on TG for those two wins.

By comparsion - when Artax won the '99 Breeders Cup Sprint in sensational fashion - he got a TG figure of 0.50. The great Kona Gold was second with a 1.00 - the mighty Big Jag was 3rd with a 0.50 (five wide trip) Forestry was 4th with a 1.25 and Successful Appeal was 5th with a 2.50

But yeah, John's Burger's two workmanlike six furlong 5K starter alw wins at MTR would have crushed that star studded group of sprinters on TG.

Ferdinand won the Derby with a 7 on TG. Alysheba won the Derby with a 6 on TG. Winning Colors won the Derby with a 6.50 on TG. Sunday Silence won the Derby with a 6.25 on TG. Four great horses right there.

On Aug 7th at Monmouth, Sir Tyler T finished 4th beaten 4.50 lengths in a 5K claiming route on the dirt - his TG number was a 6.25 On July 17th, Sir Tyler T was 4th beaten 6.5 lengths at Monmouth in a 5k claiming route. His TG number was 6.25

Basically - Ferdinand, Alysheba, Winning Colors, and Sunday Silence - in their Derby victories - all ran good enough to translate to a soundly beaten 4th place finish in a 5K claiming route at Monmouth Park today.


Jerry Brown has all of his fancy convincing power point presentations on why this is so. He says this is not reflected on the Beyer figures - because Beyers are weighted down by pars. On Ragozin, horses are faster than before - but not quite to as extreme a level as on TG.

The most interesting thing to me is that how the gap between being a stakes horse and a claiming horse seemed to be much wider on everyones numbers 10 years ago. I think it really speaks to how "good" claiming trainers have become over the last ten years.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's amazing when you look at the Thoro-Graph sheets and you hear Jerry Brown make his claims about how wildly faster racehorses are now than they were just 10 years ago.

John's Burger - recently won a pair of $5,000 starter alw races going six furlongs at Mountaineer. He earned a negative 2.5 and negative 2 on TG for those two wins.

By comparsion - when Artax won the '99 Breeders Cup Sprint in sensational fashion - he got a TG figure of 0.50. The great Kona Gold was second with a 1.00 - the mighty Big Jag was 3rd with a 0.50 (five wide trip) Forestry was 4th with a 1.25 and Successful Appeal was 5th with a 2.50

But yeah, John's Burger's two workmanlike six furlong 5K starter alw wins at MTR would have crushed that star studded group of sprinters on TG.

Ferdinand won the Derby with a 7 on TG. Alysheba won the Derby with a 6 on TG. Winning Colors won the Derby with a 6.50 on TG. Sunday Silence won the Derby with a 6.25 on TG. Four great horses right there.

On Aug 7th at Monmouth, Sir Tyler T finished 4th beaten 4.50 lengths in a 5K claiming route on the dirt - his TG number was a 6.25 On July 17th, Sir Tyler T was 4th beaten 6.5 lengths at Monmouth in a 5k claiming route. His TG number was 6.25

Basically - Ferdinand, Alysheba, Winning Colors, and Sunday Silence - in their Derby victories - all ran good enough to translate to a soundly beaten 4th place finish in a 5K claiming route at Monmouth Park today.


Jerry Brown has all of his fancy convincing power point presentations on why this is so. He says this is not reflected on the Beyer figures - because Beyers are weighted down by pars. On Ragozin, horses are faster than before - but not quite to as extreme a level as on TG.

The most interesting thing to me is that how the gap between being a stakes horse and a claiming horse seemed to be much wider on everyones numbers 10 years ago. I think it really speaks to how "good" claiming trainers have become over the last ten years.

Great work Doug, like always....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Do not mock Santana.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The most interesting thing to me is that how the gap between being a stakes horse and a claiming horse seemed to be much wider on everyones numbers 10 years ago. I think it really speaks to how "good" claiming trainers have become over the last ten years.

And this is clearly indicated by how many claiming horses are stepping up and beating stake horses. Or, it just might be the case that the methods utilized in deriving these figures might need some tweaking. (I would venture a wild guess that it'd a lot easier to, predictively, time time-trials as opposed to pelotons.) But why would these guys want to do that, when their systems are clearly IRREFRAGABLE?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

And this is clearly indicated by how many claiming horses are stepping up and beating stake horses.

You don't understand.

Horses like Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Gentlemen would have beaten solid mid level claimers at that time by two football fields. It would have been an utter bloodbath on everyones figures.

Today, those mid-level claimers would be a LOT more competitive with our top stakes horses.

You've seen a lot of cases of laughably outclassed horses stepping up and running 2nd in weak Grade 1 races on both coasts this year.

[the_fat_man]

[quote=The Indomitable DrugS;692857]You don't understand.

Horses like Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Gentlemen would have beaten solid mid level claimers at that time by two football fields. It would have been an utter bloodbath on everyones figures.

Today, those mid-level claimers would be a LOT more competitive.

You've seen a lot of cases of laughably outclassed horses stepping up and running 2nd in weak Grade 1 races on both coasts this year.[/QUOTE]

This is because the fields are so weak; and there are very few, very good horses. Why wouldn't a plug run 2nd when it's better than the other plugs in the race?

You know what stands out to me as a real difference in the way horses are running today, as opposed to how they ran in the, say, '70's/'80's? The fact that horses today seem to be able to handle a mixing of distances. Seems like just about every Southern Cal horse is prolific at both sprint and route distances. Especially those in the barn of Sadler, Baffert, Mitchell, O'neil, etc.
Once upon a time, horses were either routers or sprinters and they were trained that way. Off a layoff, they'd sprint routers to get them fit. Now, these trainers are so 'gifted' they can run these horses different distances (not to mention, surfaces) -- even alternate them with no visible affect in performance.

Just in the way of an example, check out just about ANY horse running up @ WO. More specifically, check out horses that run 7F. It seems that they, almost always, alternate between 7F and 2 turns. Back and forth. With a bunch of 6F (and even 5F) races thrown in, just for fun. The 7F/2turn thing is real big down at TAM, as well.

In what other sport and athletes going different distances?

[quote=the_fat_man;692863]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't understand.

Horses like Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Gentlemen would have beaten solid mid level claimers at that time by two football fields. It would have been an utter bloodbath on everyones figures.

Today, those mid-level claimers would be a LOT more competitive.

You've seen a lot of cases of laughably outclassed horses stepping up and running 2nd in weak Grade 1 races on both coasts this year.[/QUOTE]

This is because the fields are so weak; and there are very few, very good horses. Why wouldn't a plug run 2nd when it's better than the other plugs in the race?

You know what stands out to me as a real difference in the way horses are running today, as opposed to how they ran in the, say, '70's/'80's? The fact that horses today seem to be able to handle a mixing of distances. Seems like just about every Southern Cal horse is prolific at both sprint and route distances. Especially those in the barn of Sadler, Baffert, Mitchell, O'neil, etc.
Once upon a time, horses were either routers or sprinters and they were trained that way. Off a layoff, they'd sprint routers to get them fit. Now, these trainers are so 'gifted' they can run these horses different distances (not to mention, surfaces) -- even alternate them with no visible affect in performance.

Just in the way of an example, check out just about ANY horse running up @ WO. More specifically, check out horses that run 7F. It seems that they, almost always, alternate between 7F and 2 turns. Back and forth. With a bunch of 6F (and even 5F) races thrown in, just for fun. The 7F/2turn thing is real big down at TAM, as well.

In what other sport and athletes going different distances?

Swimming

[philcski]

[quote=Coach Pants;692866]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Swimming

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