Separating The Field

[randallscott35]

Few contenders for me in this field.
By post.
1. Lookin at Lucky- An underlay as a fave but a horse I think you have to include. Has trained well in the slop and his lone dirt race was among the fastest in this field.
Obviously the post is a hindrance in a 20 horse field but this is not a stellar group of horses we are talking about. I expect him to hit the board and will use him accordingly. Late May foal won't even be 3 for the race. Still getting better.

2. Ice Box- Another use. Yes he's improved a lot from his 2 year old form but the pace scenario should play to a deep closer. Minus for the price is Zito who gets bet a bit in here for winning 2 Derbys previously. Plus is Lezcano who is not well known as a solid jock yet among a majority of the people who bet for 1 day a year in KY. Dam won 12 furlongs. Distance is not a problem where as there are few you can say that for in here.

3. Noble's Promise- I'm not keen on a horse who's trainer was 50/50 to run in the race just weeks ago. That lack of confidence should be justified with his pedigree shouting sprinter on both sides. His Ark Derby was lackluster and I thought very little of that prep in general. Not my kind of pattern either.

4. Super Saver- People will be betting the funeral for Borel after last year's wedding with Mine That Bird. The idea that he will magically move this horse up to succeeding at this distance makes no sense. Sure he drew well. He also hasn't improved a lick since last year and as the distances have increased he seems to be moving backwards in form. His trip in Arkansas was perfect and he couldn't get there. He likes to press and the pace should be hot. I will not include in any wager and he will be bet b/c Borel will be bet in the Derby forever more. (only plus is a win over the track--not enough for me)

5. Line of David- As said before I didn't think much of the Ark Dby and apparently based on his training it put him over the top. Probably on or near the lead for a mile. I expect a steady retreat from there.

6. Stately Victor- Alan Garcia is an excellent rider and he will take back and try and make one run. His dirt races didn't inspire any confidence. Of the horses coming off a Poly effort I guess I could use him on the bottom of my tickets but I probably won't. Wet track breeding is a plus. I'm going to pass on him making much of an impact in this field.

7. American Lion- Easily the key to the race. Has run the fastest dirt figure in the race and his morning line is 30-1. Harty hits at a staggering 31% at Churchill and it is not like he's doing it in claiming races. I don't think he's a need the lead type mainly b/c the races he seemed rank in are the ones he wore blinkers in. He won't have them on today. His come home time in Illinois was excellent in a strong headwind. Drew the best of the fast horses in the race and has trained well in the slop all week. Risk reward says he is the best bet in the race.

8. Dean's Kitten- Has the right style in this race but is slow and has poor dirt breeding. I see no reason why he would be live in here. None.

9. Make Music For Me- See #8

10. Paddy O Prado- The wiseguy horse based on the way he has trained the last two weeks at Churchill. Of course he was already a wise guy horse in the Blue Grass where he went off a lot lower than his 10-1 morning line that day and ran a decent 2nd. One of the big problems I have with him is that I think his last few races he has been up close and that is not the place to be in here. I think he's a bad bet and unlikely to hit the board regardless of how he's trained.

11. Devil May Care- Gets 5 pounds and her last race was solid in figure terms but her breeding is not what I'm looking for at 10 furlongs. She will also be bet b/c she's the only filly in the race and Pletcher is her trainer. Fair odds on her would be 20-1 and she may well be half of that. I also was not a fan of her stretch run last time where she was all over the place. Maybe the blinkers will help that. Let her beat you.

12. Conveyance- Maybe this is the type of pace horse who hangs on for 3rd or 4th with slop as an aid but I can't make a convincing case for him on top and he's an underlay at anything less than 30-1. A big reach.

13. Jackson Bend- Hard trying horse and his pattern is ok but he doesn't pass anybody in the stretch and 10 furlongs seems beyond his scope. This field is average in terms of quality but he seems to get bet in almost every race and since I think fair odds on him are in the 30s I can't use him in the teens when there are better plays in the race.

14. Mission Impazible- The Louisiana Derby was very uninspiring as races go. Seems to be training well but I think his fair odds are double what he goes off at. I also see him maybe middle moving and coming up empty in the stretch. I feel his best distance will be around a mile. Play against.

15. Discreetly Mine- Great wet-track breeding and his pattern is actually not terrible. Needs to improve obviously but he ran some pretty fast races as a 2 year old so maybe back class wakes him up today. Mineshaft babies seem to get better with age and distance. The only one of the Pletcher horses I will use and it will strictly be underneath.

16. Awesome Act- I see nothing exciting about his form or his price. His trainer questions his ability to get the distance and his works leading up to the race have been average. A serious underlay and a very bad bet for the reward you will get if you are right. No thanks.

17. Dublin- Liked him last time in the Arkansas Derby but he hung in the stretch. Hasn't improved as a 3 yr old and is training like a sore horse. Lukas hurts your price. Post is no good as well. I give him 0 chance.

18. Backtalk- His wet races are ok but he never struck me as a horse who wanted to go a distance. Rushed to get into this race and is marooned outside. Would be shocking to see him crack the Top 10.

19. HomeboyKris- Has already outrun his pedigree but is simply not very fast. I respect Dutrow off a layoff but the post does him no favors and this distance looks well beyond his ability level. Can't endorse even underneath.

20. Sidney's Candy- To me the most difficult horse in the race to read. He impressed me in Cali but that's not on dirt. Trainer has been red hot. 20 hole is bad but what's worse is his front running style with a lot of speed signed on in the race already. I'm going to take the chance that he improves on the dirt and play against him. To me he should be 12-1 or 15-1 and he'll be less than that. If he beats me from the 20 hole with this pace scenario than so be it.

Think any one of the top 3 can win but my tickets will be geared mainly towards the top 2 on top and in 2nd.
1. American Lion
2. Lookin At Lucky
3. Ice Box
4. Discreetly Mine

[munster705]

This is some good analysis here.....

I am betting Ice Box. To me this looks like a pace meldown and Ice Box is the best closer in the race hands down. He had a great workout in the slop at CD recently so that lessens my fear that he won't like the wet going on Derby day. I am wheeling him up and down in the exacta trying to catch a price on top if he does run second because I would not be shocked if anyone won this race. I'll have a decent win wager on him as well.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

7. American Lion- Easily the key to the race. Has run the fastest dirt figure in the race and his morning line is 30-1. Harty hits at a staggering 31% at Churchill and it is not like he's doing it in claiming races. I don't think he's a need the lead type mainly b/c the races he seemed rank in are the ones he wore blinkers in. He won't have them on today. His come home time in Illinois was excellent in a strong headwind. Drew the best of the fast horses in the race and has trained well in the slop all week. Risk reward says he is the best bet in the race.

The more I look at this race the more I believe you are correct about him being a key factor (Super saver equally so). The favorable trip and pace he got in Ill. bothers me a bit(not to mention a meltdown possibility) but unlike Sidney the risk vs. reward is greater. He was forced to squeeze back in the run to the first turn in the San Felipe and held tight throughout the first turn until he was let go in the backstretch and although he had nothing to offer when Sidney drew away he wasn't disgraced.

The way the track is playing will be the key factor for all the speed oriented horses and if Line of David is scratched he moves up.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Few contenders for me in this field.
By post.
1. Lookin at Lucky- An underlay as a fave but a horse I think you have to include. Has trained well in the slop and his lone dirt race was among the fastest in this field.
Obviously the post is a hindrance in a 20 horse field but this is not a stellar group of horses we are talking about. I expect him to hit the board and will use him accordingly. Late May foal won't even be 3 for the race. Still getting better.
...

Think any one of the top 3 can win but my tickets will be geared mainly towards the top 2 on top and in 2nd.
1. American Lion
2. Lookin At Lucky
3. Ice Box
4. Discreetly Mine

Randall, you start off saying that Lookin At Lucky is an underlay, then you end up using him as a key horse. That makes no sense to me.


--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Randall, you start off saying that Lookin At Lucky is an underlay, then you end up using him as a key horse. That makes no sense to me.


--Dunbar

I don't like betting faves in 20 horse fields. I thought he'd go off at 4 or 5-1 when which is a slight underlay to me considering he breaks from the 1 hole....There are obviously times when a fave is straight up bad, I don't think he is one....MTB was an underlay last year at 50-1 by a lot. Just speaking from an odds perspective.

[randallscott35]

If the early odds are any indication than 7-1 is a very fair price on the horse. 4-1 doesn't do much for me...I will still use in all exotics....FYI I have an 80.5-1 future on Ice Box so that's covered for me anyway.

[Seattleallstar]

i wish i never read this or came on during Derby week. I threw out Super Saver because of what you wrote, instead I do something stupid and replace 4 with Conveyance but thats my mistake a 101k mistake..arghhhhhhhhhh

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

i wish i never read this or came on during Derby week. I threw out Super Saver because of what you wrote, instead I do something stupid and replace 4 with Conveyance but thats my mistake a 101k mistake..arghhhhhhhhhh

You let someone else's opinion govern what u bet? Seriously? Make a stand and stick with it-figured you would know this by now, Jerry?