6/10: Belmont (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Hope everyone enjoyed the terrific day of racing despite my being of very little help. The challenging day turned into a bit of a struggle and chase scenario thanks to Desormeaux and Pennington being allowed to get away with murder in the 4th. Alan Garcia should be embarrassed by his performance on Expansion, and indeed apologized to McLaughlin afterwards who was plenty disgusted. That killed my early P4 and set an early negative tone.

One of the bright spots that kept the day from being dreadful, was catching a nice P3 hooking Sette E Mezzo (Likely)-Fabulous Strike (Likely)-Diamondrella (Value) together for $287 ($2). That provided some encouragement which proved short-lived when This One's for Phil failed to rally from down inside and Munnings, in whom I had zero interest, ran huge.

Nice priced 'Super Add' Gabby's Golden Girl was on a few of my multi tickets, but not one with either Munnings or Summer Bird on the other ends. Lost $250 on the day, which was very frustrating given how many great prices were available in so many areas. Hope you did well! It was a perfect day at Belmont with just enough people to make it festive but not so many that it was a pain. Saw a number of DTers, Dee Teers and ATR listeners, and everyone seems particularly excited to get to Saratoga.

Wednesday week-starter at Belmont is VERY challenging, so the potential for big balloons exists...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Roaring Ghost 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 For Love Alone 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Fairy Wand 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Stormie Gray 10-1 5th


5th: S/HCP, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Future Prospect 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 More Than a Reason 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Even Raise 9-5 2nd


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutal, low level starter handicap with returnees and inconsistant sorts..

Most Likely: #9 Treat Her Right 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Our Montana Dream 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Dose of Reality 5-2 9th
Super Add: #4 Justinline 4-1 3rd


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hot Money 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Cardiff Road 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Joey's Chance 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Brecciate 4-1 8th


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #4 Torpedo Run 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #1 Reptillian Smarts 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Mister Triester 4-1 2nd


9th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tawaared 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Courageous Cat 8-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Smax 5-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Dukinfield 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

Super tricky sequence, and the only approach that appears to make sense, is to troll for prices while swinging for the fences with single..

6: 4-5-7-9-10
7: 2-4-6
8: 4
9: 4-5-7-10-11

5x3x1x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[favoritetrick]

I had the same up and down day, Steve. Hit the same Pick 3, which was my savior for the day, and had Munnings but not Gabby's Golden Girl and Summer Bird on the same ticket, as well. Indeed frustrating, but a fantastic day of racing nonetheless with plenty to look forward to from the likes of Just Ben, Munnings, Gio Ponti and Fabulous Strike. along with the 3yo classic horses.

Rich in Lex

[jms62]

I had Munnings and Summer Bird but unfortunately No Gabby.

[Bobtailnag]

Don't care much for the first 2 races.

R3 - Both chalks look like fire sales. Dutrow's hoss just kept getting worse as he dropped her from level to level. She's back after 6 months off and Dut's trying to dump her for 15K. Same with Tagg - when he gives up on a horse, he gives her away.

Let's swing for the fence - Win Millions 10/1 broke poorly in her debut but once out of the gate stayed on pace with the leaders through fast fractions for 15K claimers, then passed the field in a sustained drive down the stretch. If she breaks better she won't need that sustained drive. I'm not crazy about the jockey.

Also taking a hard look at Flo's Honor 15/1 who had 3 Places before winning a MC25K last out - and Cl15K N2L is just where you'd expect her to win next.

R4 - Fairy Wand covered 6Fs in 1:09.4 in last outing and that is plenty good enough to win this. Chalk but she's my top pick.
Roaring Ghost would have won her debut with a clean trip. Don't know if she's fast enough or if she can handle the grass but I like her effort in that race.
Linda Rice brings in Ten Carrot Nikki for her first effort on grass. Same questions as with Ghost but I remember Rice's success in turf sprints at The Spa a couple years back.

Adding those to the pk-3

R5 - Even Raise - chalk but has to be the top pick - it doesn't matter if there's a quick pace or a slow one - he sit's right behind the leader then pounces down the stretch.

R6 - One of the top two will probably win - I don't want to rely on three singles in a row in the pk-3s so I'll tag both.

R7 - Hot Money's pace figs in his mdn win are equal to the pars for this level. He seemed to like the surface and the turf is where Clement does his best work.

R8 - Tough call in here for me. Mr Triester likes the distance (6 for 12) and will be trying to wire the field. Levine's not doing well at the meet and just maybe he'll break through with this one because Levine is best with early speed.
Coal Play will probably try to keep Mr T company around the track but I think he has less of a chance to prevail because he looks like he's better going longer.
Raptilian Smarts sounds like a sobriquet for his trainer. D Dutrow claims him for $15k then reels off 5 straight wins as he climbs the class ladder - just missing his 6th straight while trying this level. He has the running style to take advantage of a speed duel and there's a good chance there will be one. Gotta use him in the pk-3s.

R9 - Chalk Boots Ahead's only try on turf was last and got caught a couple strides before the wire, but what looked like a show of staying power was really the result of slow early fractions (:49) meaning he wasn't as good as he looked. I think there's some opportunity to cash a nice ticket here if I'm right.

I'm going with 8/1 Courageous Cat whose 2 races this year were encouraging as he was able to stay close to the pace for 6Fs in both races - and his first career race was as a 2 yr old on turf where he covered 6Fs in 1:09.8 which is very encouraging. He has a high BRIS turf potential fig (119) and an excellent turf trainer in Mott and good turf jock (22%) in Kent D. 8/1 just makes him look that much better.

Will add Peace Wine to the pk-3s tic if he goes - went hd & hd almost all the way to the wire last out and has a good turf potential fig (110). Not wild about Weaver's 5% record and Coa is also named on Boots so this one will probably scratch.

[Kasept]

BELMONT - 6/10


Track: MUDDY
Turf: YEILDING

Turf Races: 4, 6, 7, 9
Inner: Set at 27 Ft
Widener: Set at 18 Ft

DAILY NOTES

RACE # 1 - OFF TURF
RACE #4 - MOVED TO INNER TURF

SCRATCHES

1

1 (poe) Classic Love Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW, TRIFECTA, or SUPERFECTA
2 Delta Weekend Early
3 Cori's Star Early
5 Artistic Talent Early
6 Kaleigh Rose Early
8 Fourth Chapter Early
10 Decorated Court Early


2

1A Smarty Karakorum Early
7 Glen Early


6

11 Kanwicat Early
12 Driven by Seattle Early


7

1 Slick Wheelie Early
11 System Restore Early


8

1A Pictural Early


9

1A Silver Jazz Early
2 (poe) Boots Ahead Early
3 In My Prayers Early
6 Chromospere Early

[hockey2315]

Am I the only one who likes Smart Enuf?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobtailnag

Don't care much for the first 2 races.

R3 - Both chalks look like fire sales. Dutrow's hoss just kept getting worse as he dropped her from level to level. She's back after 6 months off and Dut's trying to dump her for 15K. Same with Tagg - when he gives up on a horse, he gives her away.

I like your approach to this race, while both horses (the Tagg & Dutrow) can win they wreak of suspect goods and they are going to be wonderfully overbet for a bettor who wants to take a stand against them. I like The Donk horse 'He Ain't Easy'. Decent off track pedigree and positive + 60 days off numbers make him an interesting alternative and my pick.