Bettors....what would you do?

[GPK]

on Pinnacle...right now...for the 4StarDave tommorow...I can get "the field" at +125 vs. Artie Schiller tomorrow.

Now...using these $$$ figures to make it easy. Would you take $20 to win $25and put it on the field OR would you take that same $20 and put $5 on each horse to win, hoping that the 2nd betting favorite in the race is 4-1 and someone beats him?

The ML odds are as follows:

Prg.# PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Diamond Green (FR) Desormeaux K J Frankel Robert 115 0 L 4-1
2 2 Remarkable News (VEN) Castellano J J Penna Angel Jr 117 0 L 7-2
3 3 Noble Causeway Coa E M Zito Nicholas P 114 0 Blk-Off L 8-1
4 4 Artie Schiller Gomez G K Jerkens James A 122 0 L 1-1
5 5 Ashkal Way (IRE) Luzzi M J bin Suroor Saeed 116 0 L 4-1


What would turdbucket do???

[my miss storm cat]

All I know is Ashkal Way is the winner.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

All I know is Ashkal Way is the winner.

I think he gets bet down lower than 4-1.....thats why I am considering the matchup.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by GPK

I think he gets bet down lower than 4-1.....thats why I am considering the matchup.

Got it. Took me a minute..... sorry!

I was hoping he'd be at longer odds.

[BPLichorowiec]

But if you think its going to be a 2 horse race and you like Ashkal way, then you probably should bet Ashkall to win tomorrow and get a better price than +125. I'm thinking you would have to get atleast 2-1 on Ashkal way which pays alot more than +125.
Thats just my humble opinion

[GPK]

Originally Posted by BPLichorowiec

But if you think its going to be a 2 horse race and you like Ashkal way, then you probably should bet Ashkall to win tomorrow and get a better price than +125. I'm thinking you would have to get atleast 2-1 on Ashkal way which pays alot more than +125.
Thats just my humble opinion

thats the thing....I am not sold on it being a 2 horse field....and ANYTHING can happend during a horse race....thats why I was curious if I just take "the field" and the only thing that has to happen is Artie NOT WIN.

[GPK]

the field is now +142 as of this morning.

[Gander]

Dont make that bet Kev. Surely you can find something else to bet today?

If you were betting $20 on this to make a profit of appx $28, why not just risk $70 on Tiger Woods winning to make the same profit?

Tiger Woods has a much, much, much better chance of winning today than Artie Schiller does losing.

Kev that race is a real bad betting race. I love great stakes races and like watching the best compete but it really throws a wet blanket over the late pik-4. Artie is just so hard to bet, or to bet against.
There are other races that i actually like so why not just pass the race and go elsewhere.

[GPK]

I am about 90% gonna pass that bet up anyways....I have no faith in Artie anymore. I bet him, he loses, If I don't bet him today, he would win.

[Gander]

Gulp, I would bet Artie at 3/5 or better to win today. Thats about my breaking point.

As far as "safe bets go", Artie Schiller winning and Tiger winning are very close in my mind although I would give the edge to the human, in this case Tiger may not be so human. Hes about as great a frontrunner who has ever played any sport. Kind of like Tom Brady is when he had a lead or an edge in football.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by GPK

the field is now +142 as of this morning.

At +142, the breakeven point for comparing the 2 ways to bet against Artie is when Artie is 0.77 to 1. If Artie is 4-5 or higher, it is better to take the Pinny prop. If Artie is lower than 3-5, it is better to bet against Artie at the track. Between 3-5 and 4-5, it depends on which side of 0.77 you are.

I'm not advocating betting against him, just working on GPK's question. I've now got a spreadsheet that will make analyzing this kind of choice easier in the future.

--Dunbar

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

At +142, the breakeven point for comparing the 2 ways to bet against Artie is when Artie is 0.77 to 1. If Artie is 4-5 or higher, it is better to take the Pinny prop. If Artie is lower than 3-5, it is better to bet against Artie at the track. Between 3-5 and 4-5, it depends on which side of 0.77 you are.

I'm not advocating betting against him, just working on GPK's question. I've now got a spreadsheet that will make analyzing this kind of choice easier in the future.

--Dunbar

thanks for all of this info bro. Unfortunately, Pinny takes the prop bet down real early, so I will never know the break point because of that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by GPK

thanks for all of this info bro. Unfortunately, Pinny takes the prop bet down real early, so I will never know the break point because of that.

Right. It's more of a case of what you THINK Artie's odds will be. If you are convinced that he will go off no lower than 4-5, then you would want the Pinny prop. If you think he will go off at around 3-5, then in doesn't matter much which way you make the bet. If you think he will go off at 1-2 or lower, then you'd want to bet the other horses at the track.

If you don't have an opinion on what Artie will go off at, then this kind of analysis isn't helpful to you.

Anyway, I was interested in your question because I like comparing different ways to make the same bet. If you can make the same bet 2 different ways, this gives you another way to get an edge. See http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/Quinella.htm , for example.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

I would be shocked if Artie goes off at 4/5 in a 5 horse field like that one. No way Jose. I say 3/5 at he very most. Most likely 1/2 or 2/5. Not a horrible field by any means but you are talking about one of the best mile horses on the turf in training.

[TheSpyder]

There's the odd analysis and then theirs the horse race and wagering angle. I just don't see Artie the lock everyone else is and think there's some real compitition in this race from a few horses.

As someone else said, if I'm betting $25 or whatever I'm not looking to make $25, I'm looking for more value in a race where I can get better odds and more return. I'd look to put that money into exactas or pcik threes. I rather hit less races and make more money. Granted Artie will be 1st or 2nd most likely but too many times low prices favorites disappointed, especially at Saratoga in big races.

So I would invest the $25 this way:

$4 for beer
$3 for hotdog
$18 in pick threes

That way you know you get some return if you loose the races and have a chance at hitting for much more money!

Spyder from SC

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right. It's more of a case of what you THINK Artie's odds will be. If you are convinced that he will go off no lower than 4-5, then you would want the Pinny prop. If you think he will go off at around 3-5, then in doesn't matter much which way you make the bet. If you think he will go off at 1-2 or lower, then you'd want to bet the other horses at the track.

If you don't have an opinion on what Artie will go off at, then this kind of analysis isn't helpful to you.

Anyway, I was interested in your question because I like comparing different ways to make the same bet. If you can make the same bet 2 different ways, this gives you another way to get an edge. See http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/Quinella.htm , for example.

--Dunbar

1. I can't bet quinellas in Va
2. My mind isn't sharp enough to follow all that stuff.
3. Sounds to me that a quinella is nothing but an exacta box.

[Dunbar]

As you say, you have 2 choices, but I'd work the 2nd choice a little differently. If you want to bet on all the other horses, then it's probably better to divide your $20 so that you would collect approximately the same amount on each of the other horses. That means betting more on Ashkal Way then you would bet on Noble Causeway.

As for which of the 2 ways is better, that depends only on what odds you think Artie Shiller will go off at. If he goes off at lower than, then betting on the other horses is better than the Pinnacle prop. You can construct a bet on all the other horses that will pay more than +125 if Artie Shiller is going off at lower than 1-1. At 1-1 it is a tossup.

Here's how to figure it out for various closing odds on Artie. I’m going to assume for the calculation that each of the other horses has an equal amount bet in the win pool (and that you bet the same $5 on each of the other horses), because it makes the calc much simpler, and it does not affect the conclusion.

1. Assume that each of the other 4 horses has the same amount in the win pool.
2. Take an arbitrary amount for the total win pool; say $100,000.
3. Subtract the track take from the Win Pool.
(up to here, the steps are independent of AS's expected odds)
4. Choose AS's odds that you want to test
5. Figure out how much of the win pool would be on AS
6. Figure out how much of the win pool is on the other 4 horses.
7. Figure out how much one of the other 4 horses would pay. (they should all pay the same because of the way you bet.)

If the amount you win is better than what you would have gotten from Pinnacle (+125 on your $20), then the Pinny prop is not as good as betting on the individual horses.

Example, testing AS at 1-1:

1. Assume each of the other horses has 25% of the money NOT bet on Artie.
2. Assume Win Pool = 100,000
3. $86,000 after subtracting track take
4. Assume Artie goes off at 1-1.
5. If we call the amount bet on Artie "X", then ($86,000-X)/X = 1, so X = $43,000
6. 100,000-43,000=$57,000 (amount on other horses)
7. From (1), we assumed Ashkal Way would have 25% of the money that was NOT bet on Artie. So 25% * $57000 = $14,250. AshkalWay would pay:
(86000-14250)/14250 = 5.02 to 1. That's going to be rounded to 5.00 to 1. With your $5 bet, you win 5*5.00=$25.

$25 is the same as the $25 you would win from Pinnacle, so if Artie goes at 1-1, it would appear that it doesn’t matter which way you bet. (But because tote odds of "1-1" will mean anything from 1-1 up to almost 6-5, it will still be better to take the Pinnacle bet.) You can test this by seeing what you'd get if Artie goes off at 6-5)

1-1 on Artie is close to the point where both ways of making the "no-Artie" bet return the same. If you think Artie will go off at less than 1-1, then it's definitely better to bet the 4 other horses than take +125 at Pinnacle. If you think Artie will go off at 1-1 or more, then it's better to take the Pinnacle prop.

--Dunbar

[GPK]

Note To Self.....listen To Gut Next Time.