|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
12-10-2008, 07:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
formulator
anyone familiar with using the drf formulator? specifically what 3 ascending beyers represent when looking at filtered trainer patterns, the explanation on the drf users guide is unclear to me...enlighten me
|
|
#2
12-10-2008, 08:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Do you just mean a horse whose last three Beyers are all on the upswing? Depending on their age, (specifically those 2-4yo), horses that are continuing to improve, (without taking an exceedingly large increase in their last start), can be expected to continue small incremental improvement or in some cases significantly great improvement. Feel free to clarify what you're encountering and myself or someone else will try to further interpret your query...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#3
12-12-2008, 07:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
cant be three beyers on the upswing. beyer himself was convinced of the bounce theory when he tracked last three beyers were on the upswing the majority of horses declined or bounced in their next start. formulator shows positive rois for almost all trainers with the 3 ascending beyer filter. cant duplicate this when looking thru pps.
|
|
#4
12-12-2008, 07:56 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
 Bounce theory doesn't preclude that exactly 2 or 3 or even 4 straight improving performances will guarantee a 'bounce' or regression. Most true regression performances are the result of a SIGNIFICANT jump up in terms of figure-based evaluations. Plenty of horses show ongoing improvement or pair up efforts before a big forward move results in a bounce or regression in the next outing. A horse that makes only the smallest incremental improvement in terms of his figures can go forward endlessly before leveling off or regressing. But it takes a significant physical effort to produce it... In terms of duplicating ascension on the PP's, I think you don't see them often but they are out there. And if you allow for possible cross-out races in a horse's form cycle, (troubled starts; bad trips; surface disdain, etc.), you can spot hidden upswings.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 12-12-2008 at 09:04 AM.
|
|
#5
12-12-2008, 08:57 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I was just flipping through one Cardello's book last night where he talked about the "3 and out" beyer pattern. When a horse showed 3 straight ascending Beyers, 70% of the time the horse regressed and +/-50% regressed 6 points or more-multiple lengths. Of course he cautioned against a strict application involving younger, lightly raced horses.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
|
|
#6
12-13-2008, 03:06 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
beyer and cardello are saying 3 ascending beyers are bad bets next out. formulator seems to show unbelievably good rois for almost all trainers using this filter . at least plus 20 percent in most cases.what gives? am i misinterpertating the formulator results or does the three ascending beyer filter actually represent something else besides 3 beyers on the upswing.that is my question.
|
Hybrid Mode
