Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[jcs11204]

he's trying turf for the first time on thursday. he is now 6 and all indications are he is all done.
he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07, and that was against a weak 5 horse field... and before that it was 7/16/06 and that was vs a weak 4 horse field.
i am not knocking the horse, but the fact that he's a gelding does not mean you have to run him forever, hopefully i am wrong and the turf works out for him... i think Tall Texan is a serious horse and declan will have his hands full beating him.

[Danzig]

said the guy using perfect drift in his pick 3/4's...

seriously tho, would like to see him show something of what he used to have-but i doubt it happens.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Danzig

said the guy using perfect drift in his pick 3/4's...

seriously tho, would like to see him show something of what he used to have-but i doubt it happens.

i am glad you also said seriously though...
as for the top comment, i know ppl around here were impressed with perfect drifts comeback,not just me

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i am glad you also said seriously though...
as for the top comment, i know ppl around here were impressed with perfect drifts comeback,not just me

impressed to the point of spedning money on his next out vs these horses?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Danzig

impressed to the point of spedning money on his next out vs these horses?

i get your point, loud and clear... i will not bet him to win, but since i dont see a single in that race, i will be spreading and not leaving him out... 3-4 deep
heetseeker
go between
p drift

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he's trying turf for the first time on thursday. he is now 6 and all indications are he is all done.
he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07, and that was against a weak 5 horse field... and before that it was 7/16/06 and that was vs a weak 4 horse field.
i am not knocking the horse, but the fact that he's a gelding does not mean you have to run him forever, hopefully i am wrong and the turf works out for him... i think Tall Texan is a serious horse and declan will have his hands full beating him.

Declan's Moon's race on Thursday is not on the grass. It's on the cushion track. I think the only reason they haven't retired him is because he still works like his old self in the morning. As good as he works, they can't believe that he won't run better. If he doesn't step up with a good effort soon, I think they are going to retire him very soon. They won't run him forever if he continues running like this, and they won't run him for a tag. He was too good to them.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Declan's Moon's race on Thursday is not on the grass. It's on the cushion track. I think the only reason they haven't retired him is because he still works like his old self in the morning. As good as he works, they can't believe that he won't run better. If he doesn't step up with a good effort soon, I think they are going to retire him very soon. They won't run him forever if he continues running like this, and they won't run him for a tag. He was too good to them.

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

[zippyneedsawin]

Since he's a gelding, I think they'll keep trying.. for now.

[ddthetide]

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by ddthetide

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

Not true. His first two come back races were very good, then he seemed to stop trying. He has been a hell of a work horse in the morning.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[Indian Charlie]

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

I have heard people say that they think he underporms with some of the good young horses he gets. That is debatable but it is a fair argument.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

There are horses that show big improvement that are not juiced. He didn't improve this horse 10 lengths overnight. He didn't even run the horse for about 6 weeks after he claimed him. I have never heard anyone accuse Ellis of being a juice trainer.

The horse is easily worth $75,000 right now. They could run him for $62,500 and he would win and he would get claimed. So he is really worth quite a bit more than $75,000. He would be 3-5 if he ran for $62,500.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Ron Ellis has the highest win percenatge of any trainer at Hollywood Park this meet. He has 14 wins from 49 starters. That is a 29% win clip. For the year, he is at 20%. He has a ton of 2nd place finishes too. Over 40% of his starters this year have finished either 1st or 2nd.

That doesn't sound too incompetent to me.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he has not run a credible race since... 7/5/07.

While true, didn't they discover a throat issue after his race at Del Mar last year? He had some sort of surgery if I remember correctly.

I've actually never been a big fan of this horse, and I never really thought much of him, even as a 2yo. That being said, I see no problem with the connections continuing to race him. Why wouldn't they?

[The Bid]

There are a lot of trainers who are incompetant who have won at 20%

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Bid

There are a lot of trainers who are incompetant who have won at 20%

half the guys at delaware