Pick 6 - Good or Bad for racing?

[ArlJim78]

I found this article and the author seems to think that pick six mania is not a good thing. Mainly because its hard to hit, and there are few winners. (duh)
He acknowledges that it builds excitment and draws people out, but argues that since they are more likely to lose their bankroll, they won't be able to come back and play tomorrow.

I disagree with him and think that people are able to figure out that if they have only a $100 or $200 bankroll that the pk6 is not something wise to persue.

also the part where he states that he feels he is one of the best handicappers in the country was a turnoff. whether he is or not, I don't know, but i think its mighty pompous to drop in that line.

any thoughts? In my opinion anything that brings people out and generates news and excitement in wagering is a good thing for the game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...emy&id=3122184

[pmacdaddy]

I think anything that generates coverage and interest has to be a good thing.

I also don't think most folks dropping $500+ on a Carryover are likely to change their wagering pattern based on missing it.

[TheSpyder]

People who play the pick six want to, realize the downside, and even if they are not great cappers, also understand that it's a long shot. If it were bad for racing we'd see the pools in Calif, slowly go down as people stopped playing. That sure doesn't seem the case so I don't think his premise is accurate.

Spyder

[jballscalls]

the other thing i do like about the pick 6 is that when people cap the pick 6 hard they dont just play the pick 6, but they play the vertical bets as well during those races. If a guy busts out in the first leg, he's still likely to stay around and play the other legs in pick 3's, 4's exactas and trifectas.

[NoChanceToDance]

They may be hard to hit, but the possibility of a huge pay out for a small sum is too much for many, including many of us. Deep down we know we won't hit a pick six but we play them anyway.

The pick six brings the big and small bettors together.

We have known what is called a jackpot and scoop six (which is the same bet as the pick six over here), and regularly they roll over to becomes £ million pools.

I'm with you, jim..... surely these bets can do no harm to racing. It brings in excitement and possibly brings in people who would not usually bet before. Small stakes for possible huge returns.

[ArlJim78]

speaking of pick6's, I think Hollywood is trying their hardest to get a doublecarry going into the holiday weekend.

todays field sizes for the pick six are, 6 x 14 x 7 x 11 x 11 x 13.
and that is after scratches! and there are no easy singles, or "free squares" as some call them.

i'm sitting out this one, and just playing vertical today.

[ALostTexan]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

the other thing i do like about the pick 6 is that when people cap the pick 6 hard they dont just play the pick 6, but they play the vertical bets as well during those races. If a guy busts out in the first leg, he's still likely to stay around and play the other legs in pick 3's, 4's exactas and trifectas.

I agree with this. If there is a big P6 pool, I am attracted to that track. Now, I know that unless you have a very big bankroll, which I never do, there is a very, very slim chance of hitting the P6. But I wind up playing alot of other races on the card, and will make my "lottery style" P6 ticket based on the handicapping, which means to keep the ticket under $8. I know that the odds of hitting the P6 on an $8 ticket are extremely, extremely low, but not much higher on a ~$100 ticket, so I just have fun with it and play those other races that I have handicapped.

I sort of wish more tracks had a bet like the Fortune 6 that Beulah has. I guess that probably wouldn't work at the hugh tracks like SoCal, but I could see it working at the NYRA tracks, getting their P6-type players more into it...

[blackthroatedwind]

He brings up, sort of, the obvious " anti-Pick-6 " points ( without implicitly, seemingly, understanding the biggest potential downfall of big Pick-6 payoffs in that it can take real money out of betting circulation ). However, he completely leaves out the single biggest positive of Pick-6 carryovers. Now, maybe this is because he, admittedly, doesn't understand the bet, but to fail to mention that carryovers dramatically reduce the take-out, sometimes to the point of creating a positive equity situation, is to absolutely miss the whole point. So, I have to ask myself, did he write an article like this out of ignorance of his subject or did he intentionally intend to mislead?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He brings up, sort of, the obvious " anti-Pick-6 " points ( without implicitly, seemingly, understanding the biggest potential downfall of big Pick-6 payoffs in that it can take real money out of betting circulation ). However, he completely leaves out the single biggest positive of Pick-6 carryovers. Now, maybe this is because he, admittedly, doesn't understand the bet, but to fail to mention that carryovers dramatically reduce the take-out, sometimes to the point of creating a positive equity situation, is to absolutely miss the whole point. So, I have to ask myself, did he write an article like this out of ignorance of his subject or did he intentionally intend to mislead?

I'm guessing ignorance because he implied that the better cappers (people like himself ) avoid the play because they know they can't hit it.

i'm pretty sure the opposite is true because the better, sharper players are attracted to the carryover days precisely for the reason you mentioned, no takeout, or negative takeout.

[brianwspencer]

I don't play the pick-6, because I can't afford to take a stab at it that I really think has a chance of winning.

I know it is possible, but I just don't feel comfortable diving into a million-combination sequence with less than 100 of them.

However, I think this article totally misses the point, and that the wager is great for racing and for horseplayers as a chance to recoup some takeout.

[hi_im_god]

his arguement is that lotteries are proliferating and the american public thirsts for a big score so racing shouldn't offer that.

because handle will go down.

do i have that right?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

his arguement is that lotteries are proliferating and the american public thirsts for a big score so racing shouldn't offer that.

because handle will go down.

do i have that right?

yeah, you're right, but the lottery people don't come back week after week chasing the big jackpot do they...oh wait...nevermind.

[10 pnt move up]

The more I read about the pick 6 the more I think its bad for racing. I read that HP is so dependent on the pick 6 carryover that they will do just about anything they can to generate one and I cant help but think if that means fixing races. If its the difference between being in the red or black I just have a hard time trusting anyone.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The more I read about the pick 6 the more I think its bad for racing. I read that HP is so dependent on the pick 6 carryover that they will do just about anything they can to generate one and I cant help but think if that means fixing races. If its the difference between being in the red or black I just have a hard time trusting anyone.

wouldn't that require the cooperation of trainers, owners, and jockeys?

can you flesh out your conspiracy theory? i'm interested in your thoughts.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

wouldn't that require the cooperation of trainers, owners, and jockeys?

can you flesh out your conspiracy theory? i'm interested in your thoughts.

what is interesting is now we have a clash of conspiracies.
One group is conspiring to hit the pick six by fixing races, now we find there is another group that is fixing races in order to get them to carryover.

or maybe they take turns, the carryover fixers step aside once the pool is sufficiently large and lets the pick six fixers take over to cash in.
hmmm...

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

wouldn't that require the cooperation of trainers, owners, and jockeys?

can you flesh out your conspiracy theory? i'm interested in your thoughts.

I really cant because its just a theory. I really never gave it much thought until I heard a HP official in an email tell an owner who was upset about when and how the races were carded that their single goal is to generate carryovers, and that its the difference between making and losing money. I started to think if money causes trainers to cheat why not the track? Moreover at HP amongst the longshots they seem to have everyday several times it seems to happen in the formful races on paper, meaning its not the deep races big syndicates go deep in but races were its hard to make a case for more then 2 or 3 horses.

[theiman]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The more I read about the pick 6 the more I think its bad for racing. I read that HP is so dependent on the pick 6 carryover that they will do just about anything they can to generate one and I cant help but think if that means fixing races. If its the difference between being in the red or black I just have a hard time trusting anyone.

I think the only thing HP might do is schedule the more open, and larger fields in the Pick 6 sequence. They dont do anything else, including have the stewards DQ a favorite to get a carryover. You will often see a small stake on the weekend scheduled as race 3 or 4. outside the Pick 6.

What I dont like at HP is in the spring they often make the last race of the day a 2yr old maiden claimer. IMO those are impossible to handicap and have horses who cant run better than a 40-50 Beyer, and thus make me not play the late pick 4. I dont mind that race being in the pick 6 but wish it wasnt in the late pick 4.