Va Derby

[mp3]

Showing up is not showing up.Just read it on drf.com. Can anyone handle Kip Deville in this spot?

Also Oracle, Spoke to the Ieah crew and they tell me Wonder Lady is going in the CCoaks and they are expecting a field of 4. Hard not to get g1 placed there

WLAL will love the CCA Oaks distance....very live filly in that spot....as for Showing Up...that is actually surprising to me because it is $1 million that he would be 4-5 in....How is that not attractive?...That is as rare a scenario that you'll get as an owner/trainer....odds-on fave for $1 million on a course where your horse just dominated a solid field of turf 3yos....Wow, I can't believe they'd pass unless something was ailing the horse.....Maybe they are trying to keep him fresh for a race like the Gr. I Secretariat at ARL next month.....That would be the only logical reason I would see them forgoing the Virginia Derby proposition.....They might be out-smarting themselves here.....

[mp3]

tagg says he doesn't like the spacing and showing up will run next in the secretariat. Will Kip Deville be odds on in this spot?

[ateamstupid]

I remember just a few years ago, two weeks was short rest and three weeks was optimal time off. Now three weeks is too short. *SIGH*. Sooner or later we're gonna see horses twice a year.

Originally Posted by mp3

tagg says he doesn't like the spacing and showing up will run next in the secretariat. Will Kip Deville be odds on in this spot?

Absolutely not...as a matter of fact I believe he will be a huge play-against because the riders will be more concious of him and move to tackle him early down the backstretch instead of letting him run free until trying to reel him in the stretch.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Absolutely not...as a matter of fact I believe he will be a huge play-against because the riders will be more concious of him and move to tackle him early down the backstretch instead of letting him run free until trying to reel him in the stretch.....

They very well may do that, but it's a risk. The more they send on the backstretch to keep KD honest, the more they may end up just taking the starch out of their own finish. Who is really going to want to tackle him early and still have plans to hit the board. It's a tough call.

[GPK]

English Channel sure didnt have a problem with it last year

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

They very well may do that, but it's a risk. The more they send on the backstretch to keep KD honest, the more they may end up just taking the starch out of their own finish. Who is really going to want to tackle him early and still have plans to hit the board. It's a tough call.

Yeah, but on the other hand if you know he can go 1:08 and change for 3/4 and still finish then they are all running for second anyway, right? I think his last race was an aboration and I really don't see him turning in that type of freakish effort again..i really don't....And I really believe that there are a few jockeys that will attck him early if they have a horse with any tactical speed that they are riding.....they have to and will IMO....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

WLAL will love the CCA Oaks distance....very live filly in that spot....as for Showing Up...that is actually surprising to me because it is $1 million that he would be 4-5 in....How is that not attractive?...That is as rare a scenario that you'll get as an owner/trainer....odds-on fave for $1 million on a course where your horse just dominated a solid field of turf 3yos....Wow, I can't believe they'd pass unless something was ailing the horse.....Maybe they are trying to keep him fresh for a race like the Gr. I Secretariat at ARL next month.....That would be the only logical reason I would see them forgoing the Virginia Derby proposition.....They might be out-smarting themselves here.....

I dunno Joel, I'm dying for her to win a grade one so I can say I purchased a grade one winner but Shug's filly looks like a real nice one who is just starting to develop and I think she may be ready to run a big one.

[jpops757]

Will Dutrow bring Quincy back to ride , or will he uses one of his top riders now that they see that the horse can perform? Im sure the jock agents wernt knocking down his doors in the last becase they all probably had doubs abut this colts ability, IMO Quincy is a jock that is close for a breakthrough with the big boys.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

WLAL will love the CCA Oaks distance....very live filly in that spot....as for Showing Up...that is actually surprising to me because it is $1 million that he would be 4-5 in....How is that not attractive?...That is as rare a scenario that you'll get as an owner/trainer....odds-on fave for $1 million on a course where your horse just dominated a solid field of turf 3yos....Wow, I can't believe they'd pass unless something was ailing the horse.....Maybe they are trying to keep him fresh for a race like the Gr. I Secretariat at ARL next month.....That would be the only logical reason I would see them forgoing the Virginia Derby proposition.....They might be out-smarting themselves here.....

I wouldn't go believing anything mp3 writes here as fact without a link to the story. I just sent an e-mail to find out the real story. The plan was still to run him last I heard. He didn't work this weekend because he didn't need the work. It is completely possible they are passing but Tagg is not one to make up his mind almost 2 weeks before the race. Remember Tagg ran him back in 2 weeks for the derby so 3 weeks is not a big deal. This is a 10F race at Colonial though so maybe he thinks it is just too much. This horse has a 4yr old season ahead of him so I guess they might want to be careful with him.

[blackthroatedwind]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

Thanks. My friend said he saw this coming. Tagg is just too conservative in my opinion. The problem is the horse ran huge off a 7 week layoff from the derby and now he thinks the horse needs that much time between all races. Tagg is very lucky he has good owners because most owners wouldn't turn down an easy $600,000.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think the owners are lucky to have a great trainer like Barclay Tagg.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.drf.com/news/article/76158.html



It is towards the bottom of the article.

Sounds like he isn't running in the Virginia Derby or the Travers. Tough to go back and forth between turf and dirt.

I agree...two different styles of racing and while allowance and claiming horses might can pull it off, it is a lot harder at the top level...they are even trained a bit different by most outfits...The Secretariat makes sense becasue I'm sure they see it as an opportunity for a great chance to win a Gr. I for the colt in a game where nothing is guaranteed..he could go wrong at any minute so I suppose connections want to chase a Gr. I while he is right...

Personally, I run for the $1 million pay day in what will be a weaker spot in the Va. Derby over the Secretariat - where he may have to face some Euros...but, they obviously would rather being 2-1 for the chance to win a Gr. I versus being odds-on for a $1 million in easier purse money...I can't blame them...money is obviously no concern to them since they've had two 3yos win $1 million+ races already this year....

Additionally, he is a Strategic Mission out of T.V. Commercial mare - so I assume that there strategy is to get as many Gr. Is under his belt as they possible can to enhance his stud value, which is a value that will alwasy have a low ceiling IMO with that pedigree.....He could do as much on the track as Skip Away and Silver Charm and still be regarded as subpar bloodstock in the breeding shed just like those two nice horses.....That is why I would chase the easier purse money with him right now while it presents itself and then tackle the big boys down the road - but I can defunately see their angle here.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Additionally, he is a Strategic Mission out of T.V. Commercial mare - so I assume that there strategy is to get as many Gr. Is under his belt as they possible can to enhance his stud value, which is a value that will alwasy have a low ceiling IMO with that pedigree.....He could do as much on the track as Skip Away and Silver Charm and still be regarded as subpar bloodstock in the breeding shed just like those two nice horses.....That is why I would chase the easier purse money with him right now while it presents itself and then tackle the big boys down the road - but I can defunately see their angle here.....

This I completely agree with. Without a Grade 1 on the dirt, and even then, it doesn't seem he will ever have significant stud value. Luckily, for the owners, this doesn't really matter.

Originally Posted by boldruler

I wouldn't go believing anything mp3 writes here as fact without a link to the story. I just sent an e-mail to find out the real story. The plan was still to run him last I heard. He didn't work this weekend because he didn't need the work. It is completely possible they are passing but Tagg is not one to make up his mind almost 2 weeks before the race. Remember Tagg ran him back in 2 weeks for the derby so 3 weeks is not a big deal. This is a 10F race at Colonial though so maybe he thinks it is just too much. This horse has a 4yr old season ahead of him so I guess they might want to be careful with him.

Either that or the though that another grueling race in which they chase a lightning fast Kip Deville with Prado onboard rather than Hamilton has them taking another path. Smart move on their part if its true. I'd want no part of chasing Kip again with Prado onboard instead of the kid who opened up 17 lengths. YOu still really arent laboring under the delusion that if the kid only opened him up say by, a completely moronic 10 lengths as opposed to an incredibly moronic 17 lengths, that he was really going to beat Kip are you? I guess a lack of understanding of pace and energy expended would be expected by a guy not following the game real long.
Trust me, they want no part of Kip in that spot.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Either that or the though that another grueling race in which they chase a lightning fast Kip Deville with Prado onboard rather than Hamilton has them taking another path. Smart move on their part if its true. I'd want no part of chasing Kip again with Prado onboard instead of the kid who opened up 17 lengths. YOu still really arent laboring under the delusion that if the kid only opened him up say by, a completely moronic 10 lengths as opposed to an incredibly moronic 17 lengths, that he was really going to beat Kip are you? I guess a lack of understanding of pace and energy expended would be expected by a guy not following the game real long.
Trust me, they want no part of Kip in that spot.

I still can't help but think that this is one of those free-running horses that if you tried to kindly rate him that he would go very rank on you....I don't know, man...I've seen three of his races prior to Dutrow getting him and I'm just not sure if he will rate and still be effective...he is a free-running horses that wants it his own way....the jock usually is best served to just be a passenger - literrally and let the horse do his thing on these types...these kind of horses are rare but look at his past form...he likes to run like this....

I think any crafty attempt at Prado or anyone trying to strangle him down will have an adverse effect on his performance....just my opinion.....I say Dutrow sends him again and says "come and catch me if you can" - especially if Showing Up isn't in the field...I really do....And I also think that at least one rider will go afte him down the backstretch....these guys can't be dumb enough not to the second time around...fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me - the classic old cliche'

Originally Posted by mp3

Showing up is not showing up.Just read it on drf.com. Can anyone handle Kip Deville in this spot?

Also Oracle, Spoke to the Ieah crew and they tell me Wonder Lady is going in the CCoaks and they are expecting a field of 4. Hard not to get g1 placed there

Where did you read it on drf.com? Please provide the link. They are still undecided last I heard. He was considering working him on this Sunday but they had not made up their mind on the race. As for the Secretariat, I am not sure that is correct either. They still have not ruled out the Travers last I heard.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Where did you read it on drf.com? Please provide the link. They are still undecided last I heard. He was considering working him on this Sunday but they had not made up their mind on the race. As for the Secretariat, I am not sure that is correct either. They still have not ruled out the Travers last I heard.

Ha Ha. They want no part of Kip Deville with a real jockey, so much for that.