Hard Spun & Belmont Distance

[byalip]

Anyone think he has a chance to play bridesmaid again, even with the jockey change?

[letswastemoney]

I say he runs 4th at best!

I'm going to use Tiago/Rags to Riches on top of my exacta. If Rags to Riches doesn't run, I'll use I'mawildandcrazyguy.

On the bottom I'll use Tiago/Rags/Curlin/I'mawild/Slew's Tizzy

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I say he runs 4th at best!

I'm going to use Tiago/Rags to Riches on top of my exacta. If Rags to Riches doesn't run, I'll use I'mawildandcrazyguy.

On the bottom I'll use Tiago/Rags/Curlin/I'mawild/Slew's Tizzy

its your money and you can waste it however you would like, but I would reconsider throwing curlin out of the top position.

[miraja2]

Typically I like to know who is actually going to be in a race before I start predicting who will finish where.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Typically I like to know who is actually going to be in a race before I start predicting who will finish where.

radical idea.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

radical idea.

Nothing wrong with taking a look at the projected field and starting to do a little work. We know there will be 7 definites and I'm guessing Rags to Riches, so there's your field of eight.

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

its your money and you can waste it however you would like, but I would reconsider throwing curlin out of the top position.

I agree. Just looking preliminarily at the field, trying to beat Curlin could be an exercise in futility. I had a feeling that the "wiseguy" idea this year was going to be to play up the Derby late also-rans. Since last year's Belmont was won by a Derby late also-ran that seems like everyone's favorite angle for this year's running. Difference being that with Hard Spun and Curlin in this year's field there is real talent. Last year's field may have been long on horses, but it was short on talent.

All in all, it's going to take a career effort from Imawildandcrazyguy or Tiago to win the Belmont while Curlin could potentially regress and still win.

NT

[tycharles01]

Hard Spun wont win but give him 90% chance to hit the board.

As long as Gomez knows that the race is 1 1/2 miles and that Digger LOL will have no chance to hold up speed the whole way.


The bigger question is will the 9/5 favorite Curlin be able to run the distance!!!!

1 3/16 was a good distance and at 1 1/8 he looked terrible the last few yards
Plus the regression thing does not help either

[hockey2315]

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

So am I.

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

So am I.

Just don' t bet like you are.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by jman5581

Just don' t bet like you are.

I won't be spending any money this weekend. (Maybe a small win bet on Hard Spun, but that's about it.) I'm too broke to lose any money...

I'm looking forward to seeing Hard Spun in the winner's circle.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

Why?

Was it because of the way he got his last 1/8th in 11 and change in the Arkansas Derby? Or was it because of how empty he seemed through the late stages of the Preakness....after having his ears ridden off for most of the race?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why?

Was it because of the way he got his last 1/8th in 11 and change in the Arkansas Derby? Or was it because of how empty he seemed through the late stages of the Preakness....after having his ears ridden off for most of the race?

I'm pretty sure you said it yourself (maybe it was someone else)- Curlin came to Assmussen as a front-runner with a miler's pedigree and has become some what of a closer type who has been able to get added distance. . . At what point (or distance) will this catch up with him? I'm not saying he's not the most talented horse in this field, but at the supposedly obselete distance of the Belmont he may be compromised while other horses should/could enjoy the added ground. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking because I don't bet 4/5 shots. . .

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I did say that. You're correct.

However, I have no doubts he can see out 12 furlongs against the field he will face on Saturday....and I say that based on his recent form....which trumps pedigree.

He's an example of a horse who has outrun his pedigree...and while the fact that Asmussen has undertrained him worked against Curlin's best chances in the KY Derby and Preakness....it will actually play to his advantage in this race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure you said it yourself (maybe it was someone else)- Curlin came to Assmussen as a front-runner with a miler's pedigree and has become some what of a closer type who has been able to get added distance. . . At what point (or distance) will this catch up with him? I'm not saying he's not the most talented horse in this field, but at the supposedly obselete distance of the Belmont he may be compromised while other horses should/could enjoy the added ground. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking because I don't bet 4/5 shots. . .

I'm no fan of Curlin, but pedigreewise and running style he's awfully similar to Afleet Alex and he had no problem with 12F. If there's anything I can knock him on it's an absolute MUST that the winner have raced at 2. I'd be shocked if he doesn't hit the board simply because the field is horrific beyond the top 2 and 2:31 might be good enough for 3rd.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

I am more suspicious of Asmussen's ability to train a horse properly for 12f. The man comes from the SW QH tradition, like Baffert and Lukas, who depended on the horse's innate talent and class to carry it a distance rather than proper conditioning for longer races.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I am more suspicious of Asmussen's ability to train a horse properly for 12f. The man comes from the SW QH tradition, like Baffert and Lukas, who depended on the horse's innate talent and class to carry it a distance rather than proper conditioning for longer races.

I laughed! Too funny.

Culin hasn't been asked to a do a thing in the morning since Asmussen got him...he's basically trained him for stamina and endurance since the moment he got him.

When he got the horse about three and a half months ago, he got a horse who'd just won a MSW sprint race in wire-to-wire fashion, in supersonic time.

Through Asmussen's "Quarter horse training" -- he's managed to turn what looked like a speed sprinter/miler, into a deep closing router....who was 13 lengths off the pace in the Preakness, inspite of constant urging from his rider to try to get him to pick it up.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

When he got the horse about three and a half months ago, he got a horse who'd just won a MSW sprint race in wire-to-wire fashion, in supersonic time.

Through Asmussen's "Quarter horse training" -- he's managed to turn what looked like a speed sprinter/miler, into a deep closing router....who was 13 lengths off the pace in the Preakness, inspite of constant urging from his rider to try to get him to pick it up.

Many horses who are not sprinter/milers win their debuts over sprint distances and do so brilliantly because of their superior class. Swaps, Nashua, Tom Fool, Affirmed, Buckpasser, are those who come to the mind of this old fogey and they managed a distance beyond 10f just fine.