Performance Figures for top preps

[somerfrost]

Well, there is much discussion about this weekend's races and the Beyer figures, as I have done for years, I use Dr Roman's Performance Figures (PF's) instead of Beyers as they have proven (to me at least) to be more accurate (the sheets may be best but I refuse to buy them). Crist and others have bemoaned the slow times and resulting Beyers of the major preps this year and Dr Roman's figures support the fact that so far, this class has underperformed recent crops during the preps. This of course may actually be a good thing as perhaps trainers have suddenly learned to conserve more of their horses' energy for the big race (but i doubt it). Anyway, here are the PF's for the winners of the 5 major preps...note the discrepancy between Beyer and Dr Roman regarding Dominican and Curlin:
Blue Grass (Dominican)...-54
Ark Derby (Curlin)...-43
Wood (Nobiz Like Shobiz)...-55
SA Derby (Tiago)...-45
Fla Derby (Scat Daddy)...-46
So, according to Dr Roman, Curlin's race produced the least impressive figure. All of these figures are close enough that a case can be made for any of the above, and the races were slow enough to make a case for about 15 others come Derby Day. I'm afraid the preps aren't gonna be a huge help this year!

what are the performance figs trying to measure: Some combination of pace and final time?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

what are the performance figs trying to measure: Some combination of pace and final time?

They are a combination of fractional and final times as are all speed figures. If you want an overview, along with lots of numbers to ponder, go to Dr Roman's site: http://www.chef-de-race.com/

[somerfrost]

As a comparrison, here are the PF's for the races in question for 2006, 2005 and 2004:
Ark Derby...-60, -63, -74 (Curlin...-43)
Fla Derby...-57, -68, -33 (Scat Daddy...-46)
SA Derby...-51, -42, -57 (Tiago...-45)
Blue Grass...-84, -49, -64 (Dominican...-54)
Wood...-60, -103, -58 (Nobiz...-55)

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

As a comparrison, here are the PF's for the races in question for 2006, 2005 and 2004:
Ark Derby...-60, -63, -74 (Curlin...-43)
Fla Derby...-57, -68, -33 (Scat Daddy...-46)
SA Derby...-51, -42, -57 (Tiago...-45)
Blue Grass...-84, -49, -64 (Dominican...-54)
Wood...-60, -103, -58 (Nobiz...-55)

So what it says is the Roman numbers are completly meaningless in picking a Derby winner. Last year his second worst prep performance won the Derby...in 2005, his by far worst prep's 4th place finisher won the Derby. Only Smarty in 2004 was true to his form. I think it is beyond psychotic for Roman to say Teuflesberg ran a better race than Curlin yesterday.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

So what it says is the Roman numbers are completly meaningless in picking a Derby winner. Last year his second worst prep performance won the Derby...in 2005, his by far worst prep's 4th place finisher won the Derby. Only Smarty in 2004 was true to his form. I think it is beyond psychotic for Roman to say Teuflesberg ran a better race than Curlin yesterday.

If you bet the Derby based on which horse obtains the best sheet number in a single race, which horse has the single highest Beyer or which horse has the best PF, you are the psychotic one. Instead of finding a way to be critical (and appear rather ignorant of basic handicapping), I'd suggest using the PF's (or Beyers or Sheets) in the way in which they were meant to be utilized...as part of the handicapping process! All any speed figures will give you is the basis for a comparative analysis of different races at different tracks...if handicapping a race like the Derby were as easy as just picking some number, I suspect even you could select the winner.