ml odds for colonial cup

[mp3]

9th (5:40)
Colonial Turf Cup S.
Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Surface: Outer turf Open Age: 3 Year Olds Stakes
Purse $1,000,000.
Prg.# PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
Hunting Print SCRATCHED 0 0
Sir Classic Chris SCRATCHED 0 0
Proudinsky (GER) SCRATCHED 0 0
1 1 Showing Up Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 120 0 L 6-1
2 2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 120 0 7-2
3 3 International Cat Tejera E A Abreu Reynaldo 116 0 L 30-1
4 4 Outperformance Castellano J J Violette Richard A Jr 118 0 L 10-1
5 5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 116 0 L 8-1
6 6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A Sciacca Gary 116 0 L 30-1
7 7 Lewis Michael Guidry M Catalano Wayne M 116 0 L 15-1
8 8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr Dickinson Michael W 116 0 L 15-1
9 9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M Bailes W Robert 116 0 L 20-1
10 10 Can't Beat It Castro E Wolfson Martin D 116 0 L 20-1
11 11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R Romans Dale 116 0 L 15-1
12 12 Chin High Kaenel K Pessin Neil L 120 0 L 20-1
13 13 Go Between Gomez G K Mott William I 118 0 L 4-1
14 14 Kip Deville Kaenel K Dutrow Richard E Jr 116 0 L 9-2


Exacta, Trifecta & 10 Cent Superfecta, 1st Half Daily Double, 2nd Leg Pick Three

6-1 on Showing Up. Is this guy smoking something? I would love to see it, but I am thinking 7-2 at best.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by boldruler

6-1 on Showing Up. Is this guy smoking something? I would love to see it, but I am thinking 7-2 at best.

6-1 morning line is fair considering he's never raced on the turf.. but you're right, he'll never go off at odds that high.

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

6-1 morning line is fair considering he's never raced on the turf.. but you're right, he'll never go off at odds that high.

He is the only horse the average person has even heard of. People always bet Kentucky Derby horses, especially when they carry the same silks as Barbaro. I also know of someone making a very large bet on him, so unless the pools are really big, which I doubt, he is likely to be 3-1 or shorter.

[Gander]

Here are my odds....

1 1 Showing Up Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 120 0 L 2-1
2 2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 120 0 5-2
3 3 International Cat Tejera E A Abreu Reynaldo 116 0 L 50-1
4 4 Outperformance Castellano J J Violette Richard A Jr 118 0 L 15-1
5 5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 116 0 L 12-1
6 6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A Sciacca Gary 116 0 L 75-1
7 7 Lewis Michael Guidry M Catalano Wayne M 116 0 L 12-1
8 8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr Dickinson Michael W 116 0 L 8-1
9 9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M Bailes W Robert 116 0 L 30-1
10 10 Can't Beat It Castro E Wolfson Martin D 116 0 L 20-1
11 11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R Romans Dale 116 0 L 10-1
12 12 Chin High Kaenel K Pessin Neil L 120 0 L 30-1
13 13 Go Between Gomez G K Mott William I 118 0 L 4-1
14 14 Kip Deville Kaenel K Dutrow Richard E Jr 116 0 L 6-1

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Showing Up's odds will drop like a rock from 6/1. People are going to see the "KyDerby(G1)2000k" and "6th" in his past performances and be all over him. This race is absolutely wide open!!!

Originally Posted by Gander

Here are my odds....

1 1 Showing Up Velasquez C Tagg Barclay 120 0 L 2-1
2 2 Stream Cat Leparoux J R Biancone Patrick L 120 0 5-2
3 3 International Cat Tejera E A Abreu Reynaldo 116 0 L 50-1
4 4 Outperformance Castellano J J Violette Richard A Jr 118 0 L 15-1
5 5 Roman Dynasty Luzzi M J Pletcher Todd A 116 0 L 12-1
6 6 Prime Diamond Dominguez R A Sciacca Gary 116 0 L 75-1
7 7 Lewis Michael Guidry M Catalano Wayne M 116 0 L 12-1
8 8 Rock Lobster Rocco J S Jr Dickinson Michael W 116 0 L 8-1
9 9 Unbridled Behavior Guidry M Bailes W Robert 116 0 L 30-1
10 10 Can't Beat It Castro E Wolfson Martin D 116 0 L 20-1
11 11 Yate's Black Cat Douglas R R Romans Dale 116 0 L 10-1
12 12 Chin High Kaenel K Pessin Neil L 120 0 L 30-1
13 13 Go Between Gomez G K Mott William I 118 0 L 4-1
14 14 Kip Deville Kaenel K Dutrow Richard E Jr 116 0 L 6-1

That looks more like what we will see. I think Stream Cat, Showing Up and Motts horse are likely to all be around 3-1. You do have the luxury of putting in 75-1 and 50-1 shots, something the guy who set the ML really can't do without upsetting owners/trainers. I think Rock Lobster should be the 4th choice and KD the 5th, but they will overbet Dutrow.

[whorstman]

I'll take the french connection.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Showing Up's odds will drop like a rock from 6/1. People are going to see the "KyDerby(G1)2000k" and "6th" in his past performances and be all over him. This race is absolutely wide open!!!

I think the Barbaro connection will get a ton of money on him too. The Jacksons are going to the race and you know Barbaro and the Jacksons will be all over the local tv and newspapers. I hope their horse runs a big one for them, although I know for a fact they were rooting a little more for Barbaro in the derby. I guess a homebred always gets a little extra rooting from the owners, although they knew all spring that Barbaro was the better of the two.

[Cajungator26]

I think Showing Up wins this for fun, but I'm also looking at Roman Dynasty.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think Showing Up wins this for fun, but I'm also looking at Roman Dynasty.

Probably a good pick but I hope they overbet him because of Pletcher.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

not sure who ill pick/bet but i have to root for the chitown connections of calabrese/catalano/ and the longtime kingpin in the chicago jocks room....the guid

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

not sure who ill pick/bet but i have to root for the chitown connections of calabrese/catalano/ and the longtime kingpin in the chicago jocks room....the guid

didnt his bro just get fedral cork screwed...

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

didnt his bro just get fedral cork screwed...

who the guy in the paper with the same last name connected to the mob that they ran a story on in the tribune a couple of years ago? i think mr calabrese(the owner at the track) actually sued the paper for misinformation regarding that, no relation at all i believe. are you talking about something else maybe?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

who the guy in the paper with the same last name connected to the mob that they ran a story on in the tribune a couple of years ago? i think mr calabrese(the owner at the track) actually sued the paper for misinformation regarding that, no relation at all i believe. are you talking about something else maybe?

could be i saw it on the news yesterday..

Showing Up isn't going off at 6-1. The guy setting the line must have just looked at how he never ran over the turf. Even with a large field I see him at 8-5 when the gates open.

I cant believe you guys think that Showing Up wins this race. I do not like this horse at all in this spot. The horse has talent and a great upside, but I really feel he is going to be lucky to finish in the top 3. But we will see.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I cant believe you guys think that Showing Up wins this race. I do not like this horse at all in this spot. The horse has talent and a great upside, but I really feel he is going to be lucky to finish in the top 3. But we will see.

I will bet against him but I suspect he beats up on these horses. I talked to a guy in Ocala that knows some people in NY and most think he is better on the grass than he is on the dirt. One guy said he is "a freak" on the grass.

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I will bet against him but I suspect he beats up on these horses. I talked to a guy in Ocala that knows some people in NY and most think he is better on the grass than he is on the dirt. One guy said he is "a freak" on the grass.

Yeah I have heard that as well. But I do not believe it. I prob wont even bet the race, but he will have to show me he is good on grass. I just dont think he is all that special.

[Pedigree Ann]

Isn't Lewis Michael the horse who barely lost to Sunriver in the Peter Pan? And had done most of his winning on turf? I feel that this form is better than Showing Up's for this contest.