Ok, ONE last time

[2MinsToPost]

Explain to me how this is correct and makes sense.......................

$1 Pick 3 (6-3-3) 3 Correct Paid $44.30 Pick 3 Pool $70,700

6 Jump On In Nakatani C S 119 2.60 2.10 2.10
3 Movie Star (BRZ) Nakatani C S 119 6.80 3.40 2.40
3 Another Brother Chavez J F 120 20.40 9.60 4.80

OK, then.............................................. ..................................

$1 Pick 3 (10-4-12) 3 Correct Paid $1,756.40 Pick 3 Pool $119,421

10 Billy's Echo Enriquez I D 122 65.00 22.20 9.20
4 Indian Flare Flores D R 116 5.40 2.80 2.40
12 Mosley Pedroza M A 120 54.40 21.80 11.00

help, all I ask is an explanation that I can understand

[timmgirvan]

I might be missing something but....alotta people hit the 1st P3, and very few hit the last P3?

[2MinsToPost]

no, I need an explanation of this parlay stuff. I understand some things, but not THE MATH ON THOSE 2 PAYOFFS. Ya see what I am saying?

[timmgirvan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are you wondering, why the second one paid so much more? The first one had a 1/9 to start off the pic. Which means nearly everyone who played a pic had that horse, and most probably singled. The second horse was second choice, and with the probability that most singled the 1-9, I'm sure there were a ton live to the third leg. The third leg was not an easy, but again, with such a short priced favorite winning the first leg, it's actually not a bad paying pic 3 considering it was basically a double.

The second one started out with a $65 horse which obviously probably knocked a lot of people out of the pics. The horse that one the second leg was a close second choice, but with such a bomb leading off, probably not too many live. And then the last race was a crapshoot.

I think it's a case of probably many people having the first one, and only a few having the second.

I believe I covered that! I don't understand Curts' dilemna.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are you wondering, why the second one paid so much more? The first one had a 1/9 to start off the pic. Which means nearly everyone who played a pic had that horse, and most probably singled. The second horse was second choice, and with the probability that most singled the 1-9, I'm sure there were a ton live to the third leg. The third leg was not an easy, but again, with such a short priced favorite winning the first leg, it's actually not a bad paying pic 3 considering it was basically a double.

The second one started out with a $65 horse which obviously probably knocked a lot of people out of the pics. The horse that one the second leg was a close second choice, but with such a bomb leading off, probably not too many live. And then the last race was a crapshoot.

I think it's a case of probably many people having the first one, and only a few having the second.

I feel ya there D Hoss

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by timmgirvan

I believe I covered that! I don't understand Curts' dilemna.

Parlay math, look - I had the early Pick 3 and still don't understand why it didn't pay twice what it did. I am a NOVICE to say the least..................

[brianwspencer]

well the $2 win parlay for the first pick-3 is only about $60, and the $1 pick-3 paid more than half of that, so it makes perfect sense mathematically. Dahoss covered the intuitive side of it, that nobody on earth is going to get eliminated in the first leg of a pick-3 won by a 1-9 shot.

[2MinsToPost]

Ok, just ONE LAST TIME help me with how they calculate these payoffs on the Pick 3's...............

[philcski]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

no, I need an explanation of this parlay stuff. I understand some things, but not THE MATH ON THOSE 2 PAYOFFS. Ya see what I am saying?

Has nothing to do with parlays... its simply a calculation of pool $$$ / live tickets. Assuming a 25% takeout, $53,025 was available to pay the winners in the first pool, which means there were 1,196 $1 winners (breakage (rounding) means this number is off a little.) In the second pool, $89,565 was available to pay the winners, so there were 51 $1 winners. 51*$1,756.40 = $89,565.

Parlaying the win price is only an ESTIMATE. If anything, the first payoff was dead on; a straight parlay would have paid $90.40 for $2. In this case... that's generous. Starting a pick-3 with a 1/5 shot usually will be less than the parlay price.

The 2nd paid significantly under the parlay- $4,773.60 for $2 was the actual parlay price.

Can you give me a rundown of these races by class & size?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Ok, just ONE LAST TIME help me with how they calculate these payoffs on the Pick 3's...............

It's all parimutuel. It's like a prolonged exacta in many ways.

Think of it this way. If a pick-3 pool is $1,000 and the takeout is say 20%, that means there is $800 to pay out.

Now, Race 1 winner #1 pays $3.80. Race 2 Winner #6 pays $5.60. Race 3 Winner #2 pays $10.00.

Your winning pick-3 is 1/6/2.

It is possible, let's say hypothetically, that YOU are the only player out of those 1000 original different $1 combinations that holds a ticket that says 1/6/2. You win $800.

On the other hand, 9 of your friends took your advice and also hold a 1/6/2 ticket. Now, each of your payout is $80 beacuse you 10 are splitting the pool.

Now imagine that that $1000 worth or original combinations was 1000 different people playing a straight $1 pick-3 ticket 1/6/2. That means that every single ticket was a winner, and now each of those 1000 winners gets a return of $0.80 on their ticket.

These are examples that are extremely impractical, but I find that using examples like this helps me grasp things like this. After the takeout, every winning combination splits its fractional portion of the remaining pool, whether that is one person with the right ticket, or 1000 people all with the same correct ticket.

Did that help at all?

[2MinsToPost]

Ok, thanks to those who took the time to drill this into my thick stubborn head. I finally have a grasp of the way the payoffs work in these.

[jpops757]

I took a shot in that pk 3 because of the 1/9 in the first and the short field in the 2nd. I singled the first and the second with all in the third/ The only problem I didnt use the 1/9 in the first. Took a shot at a nice play and it didnt work but I loved Frankles horse and thought he would go off about 3/1. He got bet down a bit but he was my key along with the 1/9 getting beat but all I did was clutter the floor. Not the first time and doubt if its the last time. If you play a 1/9 it is time to play those $20 and $50 pk3 if you are looking for a bigger pay. If the 1/9 was in the 2nd or 3rd leg it would have probably paid a bit more.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The 1st pick 3 is pretty typical of a pick 3 with a couple chalks in it(they only pay the win parlay.) The 2nd one is way low.People hide money in these pick 3 bets a lot.There really is no reason for a pick 3 (with decent paying horses) to pay less than a win parlay.They don't want their money to show up in the win pools.For these pick 3 bets to pay so low(like the one ending in the last race,)one of these horses in the pick 3 is being bet down(in the pick 3)to the equivalent of half their win odds.That is not the general public that does that(especially at a big track.)Believe me,the general public pretty much plays horses (in the pick 3) the same way they do in the win pools.The reason for the low pick 3 payouts(way under the win parlay) is inside money that people don't want showing up in the win pools.

[Gander]

I was sort of surprised they didnt take Billy's Echo down. Any time they have a chance to screw people out of a hitting a 30/1 shot they do. When I saw that there was an inquiry I was sure he was coming down and Yes Master was doing his best imitation of the Jeffersons... moving on up.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Did they name that horse wrong or what? Yes Master should behave,and not look to be quitting before the Master says so.

Originally Posted by philcski

Has nothing to do with parlays... its simply a calculation of pool $$$ / live tickets. Assuming a 25% takeout, $53,025 was available to pay the winners in the first pool, which means there were 1,196 $1 winners (breakage (rounding) means this number is off a little.) In the second pool, $89,565 was available to pay the winners, so there were 51 $1 winners. 51*$1,756.40 = $89,565.

Parlaying the win price is only an ESTIMATE. If anything, the first payoff was dead on; a straight parlay would have paid $90.40 for $2. In this case... that's generous. Starting a pick-3 with a 1/5 shot usually will be less than the parlay price.

The 2nd paid significantly under the parlay- $4,773.60 for $2 was the actual parlay price.

Can you give me a rundown of these races by class & size?

Yes, yes, yes. My whole reason for being highly cautious of Pik bets, which I went to war with Oracle and Scuds on and no one understood. In fact most people backed them because after all, its Oracle and Scuds, not a minor league poster like myself.

Kurt. If the track gave you Pik combination odds, like the Win odds on the tote board do, then you would know that a lot of people had/have a ticket just like yours. Ex. If a horse is even odds to win, you know a lot of people have bet on your horse. But you do not know how many people hold tickets on pik bets that are the same as yours, therefore you do not know what the payout will be. Reguardless of what the pool size says. It does not matter because you dont know how many people hold winning tickets. You do know that a lot of money is on a horse that is even odds with a straight up win bet because the tote board tells you. There is no pik combination tote board until a number of races composing that pik bet are in.

Now after dissing pik bets, I will say they are highly entertaining. They are much more fun to try and figure out where you go deep etc... based on what the rest of the public might do. Getting the best bang for your buck by building a good ticket, while at the same time avoiding the massive number of public tickets that might be a winner, but are not worth the risk. This is why I find pik bets interesting.

[jpops757]

With the computer tech now available, I feel that the tracks have the capability to display the number of live tickets available on various legs of pk3-3 and sixes. If this was available it would help eliminat a scam,shuch as the 1 we had at the BC a few years back. Someone couldnt sudenly have a live pk6 after the 4th race.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes, yes, yes. My whole reason for being highly cautious of Pik bets, which I went to war with Oracle and Scuds on and no one understood. In fact most people backed them because after all, its Oracle and Scuds, not a minor league poster like myself.

Kurt. If the track gave you Pik combination odds, like the Win odds on the tote board do, then you would know that a lot of people had/have a ticket just like yours. Ex. If a horse is even odds to win, you know a lot of people have bet on your horse. But you do not know how many people hold tickets on pik bets that are the same as yours, therefore you do not know what the payout will be. Reguardless of what the pool size says. It does not matter because you dont know how many people hold winning tickets. You do know that a lot of money is on a horse that is even odds with a straight up win bet because the tote board tells you. There is no pik combination tote board until a number of races composing that pik bet are in.

Now after dissing pik bets, I will say they are highly entertaining. They are much more fun to try and figure out where you go deep etc... based on what the rest of the public might do. Getting the best bang for your buck by building a good ticket, while at the same time avoiding the massive number of public tickets that might be a winner, but are not worth the risk. This is why I find pik bets interesting.

Even though I like the p3 bets,I have noticed that some of the tracks are a waste of time to play them at.I think I looked at Zia Park one time,and they were almost always under the parlay.Turfway certainly has problems with them.Anita's pick 3's can be diseased.It doesn't happen as much (or as badly ) as it happens at some of the smaller tracks. Overall,the p4 is less apt to pay under the win parlay,and is more apt to pay way over what it should.We have had 2 days of racing at Anita,and on both days,the late p3 was under what it should be,and the p4 was way over what it should be.The late p4 yesterday should have paid what? 8k?? It paid over 22k?? I know what PGRDN'S POINT IS,but I got $5800 for a pick 3 with a win parlay of $1800.So it is a tough sell.I would like to get a lot more info on trends of the tracks though.I do think playing the Turfway/Zia park/Sunland ETC. is pretty much like THE WILD,WILD WEST.Like I said,try to favor the p4 over the p3.The p4 seems to be less apt to be as f'd up.

[PeteMugg]

Well, I don't ever see me hitting that parlay in the second scenario. But I could easily play value like that in a P3, and others could as well. I guess that's why it's below the parlay amount.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes, yes, yes. My whole reason for being highly cautious of Pik bets, which I went to war with Oracle and Scuds on and no one understood. In fact most people backed them because after all, its Oracle and Scuds, not a minor league poster like myself.

Kurt. If the track gave you Pik combination odds, like the Win odds on the tote board do, then you would know that a lot of people had/have a ticket just like yours. Ex. If a horse is even odds to win, you know a lot of people have bet on your horse. But you do not know how many people hold tickets on pik bets that are the same as yours, therefore you do not know what the payout will be. Reguardless of what the pool size says. It does not matter because you dont know how many people hold winning tickets. You do know that a lot of money is on a horse that is even odds with a straight up win bet because the tote board tells you. There is no pik combination tote board until a number of races composing that pik bet are in.

Now after dissing pik bets, I will say they are highly entertaining. They are much more fun to try and figure out where you go deep etc... based on what the rest of the public might do. Getting the best bang for your buck by building a good ticket, while at the same time avoiding the massive number of public tickets that might be a winner, but are not worth the risk. This is why I find pik bets interesting.

While I respect your math. The only time a 3 race parlay is comparable to a pk 3 is when you make a straight pk3. Because most pk 3 and 4 players widen there ticket to include some tomake iut a nice play. As an example I hit one at Bel in the last meet with 3 horses that were about 5/1 and spent $18 it paid 3,800. A example and not the norm but this is the chance you take. No way would I have taken the approximately 200 and put it on the nose of the 3rd leg but I invested the 18 in the pk 3. This is what helps make the races great, the many cobos you can come up with in wagering.