12/6: Aqueduct (3rd-11th)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Zany comes in looking fastest, but is being asked to stretch from 6.5f to 9f. Andy Simoff shows up from DelPark with a Gun Runner filly that can enjoy an inside stalk-and-pounce trip..

Best Value: #1 Jumping the Gun 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Believable 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Zany 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Super Add: #4 Concurrently 3-1 3rd


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult read with lots of pace involved. The Linda Rice pair (1st/3rd choices) make plenty of sense. Chad cuts back going turf/dirt with Layered. Nevin has moved Meg's Foxy Grey up off Compton, which is not easily accomplished..

Most Likely: #2 Army Gal 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Meg's Foxy Grey 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Despo's Dream 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Layered 3-1 7th


5th: Elite Power (G3), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Loved that Nick Tammaro was all over Full Moon Madness on ATR Wknd Prvw as I thought the Sam Siegel homebred had a big look. That said, improving St. Jude appears a possible loose leader in a group with modest pace power..

Most Likely: #2 Full Moon Madness 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 St. Jude 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Just Beat the Odds 3-1 WON ($4.94)
Exotics Use: #3 Acoustic Ave 7-2 2nd


6th: NY-MCLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Oy.. A field full of turf horses..

Most Likely: #9 Fire Agate 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Purest Performance 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Alyvia Mavis 4-1 WON ($5.52)
Exotics Use: #1 Charmeuse 20-1 7th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Took a long time to get monster debut winner Life and Times to the races (4yo), which brings soundness into question. He's worked 3x since debut since though, so it would appear he's done well out of graduation. Anything close to November performance wins. Buttah rarely misfires for Gary and Eddie F and is an overlay at 12-1. Waitlist cuts back to a mile..

Most Likely: #6 Life and Times 8-5 WON ($3.58)
Best Value: #4 Buttah 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Waitlist 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Land d'Oro 12-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 2-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
5: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
6: 1-5-9-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x5x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 2x3x5x1 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x5x1 = 20 x .50 = $10


8th: NYSS, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Super competitive set of NY sired gals with a few looking just a little more likely than the rest..

Best Value: #12 Daniela Marie 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Oh 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Hot Currency 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Braverthanubelieve 6-1 WON ($18.18)


9th: Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

This is a fabulous assembly and I may be going overboard on Maker's Curlin colt I Did I Did, but he keeps improving as he stretches out, has kept top company and gets Joel for necessary patient ride; Have gun will travel reads the card of a man, a knight without armor in a savage land ~ and $1.9MM Paladin gave an 'any kind' feel off his up-via-DQ debut. Gary Capuano's Probably Dreaming SCR'D took worst of it at draw, but will be totally ignored and is eligible for laurels making a one run try. Courting.. Igniter.. Renegade.. Balboa.. Talkin.. This is a wildly interesting bunch. Take a handful in your exacta and tris. There's no bad ideas here..

Best Value: #3 I Did I Did 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Paladin 3-1 WON ($5.76)
Exotics Use: #11 Talkin 5-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Courting 9-2 4th


10th: Cigar Mile (G2), 3+, 1m (DD)

SCR Doc Sullivan which leaves us with a quizzical 6 pack. Admit that I don't have any feel for what is going to turn into a rider's chess match. Suppose under that scenario that you want Prat who is 5-for-5 with Bishop's Bay..

Most Likely: #7 Bishop's Bay 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 Mika 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Phileas Fogg 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Crazy Mason 7-2 3rd


11th: NYSS, 2yo, 7f

Butchy Reid appears to have a serious runner in Parker Boone..

Most Likely: #2 Parker Boone 8-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Sunday Boy 15-1 WON ($27.10)
Next Best: #13 Combat Mission 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Muscle Shoals 20-1 3rd

$1 EXACTA (9-13) Paid: $127.43
$1 TRIFECTA (9-13-8) Paid: $2,008.90
$1 SUPERFECTA (9-13-8-2) Paid: $8,493.30


P5 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), 2 (B), 7-9 (C)
8: 1-8-10-12 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x2x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (CAAAA): 2x4x2x2x1 = 32 x .50 = $16 (7-9 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-8-10-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-3 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
10: 2-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 6x2x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 6x2x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6-11 in 9th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve