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#1
11-28-2025, 09:58 AM
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11/28: Churchill Downs (8th-12th)
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES 8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5) Yes, Miss Ellary is the horse to beat, but she loves to finish 2nd and there are several right in range for honors.. Most Likely: #3 Carolina Candy 5-1 4th Next Best: #7 Miss Ellary 3-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Dozen Diamonds 12-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Creative Quality 5-1 7th 9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5) Long lost Good Money (4th beaten <1 length as part of the notorious non-wagering '24 Tampa Bay Derby) won't be 8-1, but new gelding is the horse to beat dropping below price of claim.. Best Value: #2 Good Money 8-1 WON ($7.90) Next Best: #3 Sand Street 9-2 11th Exotics Use: #10 Gallo de Fuego 3-1 7th Super Add: #9 Hard to Say 7-2 9th 10th: Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5) Classic Q has been rock solid with some bad trip luck the difference between a good and great season. Should dictate terms up front as 2nd choice behind G1 QEII victress Lush Lips. Rusty's In the Stars (15-1) is the competitive fun price candidate, while Walsh's secondary entrant Somethinabouther (8-1) rarely misses a stakes board.. Most Likely: #4 Classic Q 3-1 3rd Best Value: #9 In the Stars 15-1 7th Next Best: #1 Lush Lips 7-2 WON ($3.14) Exotics Use: #8 Somethinabouther 8-1 10th $3 Late P3 Grid: 10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) 12: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C) All A's: 3x1x5 = 15 x $3 = $45 11th: Clark (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5) Super competitive Clark where favored Hit Show is just one of the ones that can win. Feels like the 3yo's with upside are the right approach.. Most Likely: #4 Gosger 4-1 6th Next Best: #9 Magnitude 9-2 WON ($6.36) Best Value: #2 First Mission 5-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 Rattle N Roll 7-2 5th 12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Hi-5) Insane late season MSW with sons of major stakes-winning dams Walkabout (Matron-CD), Sara Louise (Top Flight, Victory Ride, Pocahontas), She's a Julie (Phipps/La Troienne, +++) and Belvoir Bay (BC Turf Sprint, Monrovia, +++) all on display.. Most Likely: #2 Pitkin 7-2 6th Best Value: #6 Vital Mind 6-1 WON ($5.54) Next Best: #4 Sea Vista 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Mizzou 3-1 3rd P5 Grid: 8: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 4 (A), 9 (B), 2-3-6 (C) 12: 2-4-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backup (2x2x3x3x3): 108 x 50 = $54 (2-3-6 in 11th) P4 Grid: 9: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 4 (A), 2-9 (B), 3-6 (C) 12: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45 All A's: 2x3x1x5 = 30 x .50 = $15 Backup (2x3x2x5): 60 x 50 = $30 (3-6 in 11th) $0.50 Pick 4 (2/1,2,6/8,9/5,6) Paid $89.00 Let's get lucky! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 11-29-2025 at 04:04 AM. 
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#2
11-28-2025, 11:00 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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