7/23: Saratoga (Smithwick; $102k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: A. P. Smithwick (G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Awakened 2-1: '23 Sheppard winner always fires over course.. 6th
Best Value: #1 Who's Counting 8-1: Best price option fast on flat; good 3rd to Snap & Abaan in spring.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Proven Innocent 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Jimmy P 7-2 5th


2nd: OC/C, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Braganza 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Weigh the Risks 7-5 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Zadorsky 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Tough Street 5-1 5th


3rd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Empty Tomb 3-1: Feels likely to wire.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Gasoline 4-1 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #6 Manta Ray 4-1 2nd


4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$102K P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Gardiner 5-2: Solid as a 2yo, has come back better at 3.. WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #7 Remi's Moon 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Trust Issues 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Roar Ready 8-1 4th


5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7F (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Talkin in Cursive 8-5: Repeat of last wins here and pace looks advantageous.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Problematica 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gone and Forgotten 2-1 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Toned Up 10-1 5th


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 11f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Crystal Quest the one to beat, but has to answer the extra quarter mile question..

Best Value: #3 Freedom's Way 6-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #5 Crystal Quest 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Catch a Wave 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Vesting 6-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

3: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-7 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-5 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (2-2/6-4-3) Paid $83.62 (A-A-A-A)


7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Daisy Duke 2-1: Churchill dirt runners continue to dominate here.. 2nd
Best Value: #8 Elegant 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Beira 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Looks First 10-1 4th


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Dutrow's The Big Calhouna (POE) imposing, but Bauer's 4yo Princess Madison is 2nd/break and career best came here last summer..

Best Value: #3 Princess Madison 6-1 ~ DePaula Play of the Day 3rd
Next Best: #2 (POE) The Big Calhouna 1-1 5th/6th
Exotics Use: #1 All Class 4-1 WON ($23.60)
Super Add: #4 Caress 8-1 2nd


9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T

Non descript bunch dashing on the lawn a tough end to slippery sequence. How much do you trust King Puck?

Best Value: #9 Light Fantastic 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 King Puck 8-5 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #4 The Commish 6-1 -
Super Add: #6 Askingforafriend 7-2 2nd


P6 Grid:

4: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-5 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 4-8 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x4x3x2x3 = $144
All A's: 2x1x2x2x2x3 = $48
Backup (AAAAAC): 2x1x2x2x2x3 = $48 (5-6-8 in 9th)


P5 Grid:

5: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-5 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-6-8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 3-5 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-6-8 in 9th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S