8/24: Saratoga (NY Summer Showcase)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Analyzethisandthat 9-2 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #1 Beachside 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Qian B C 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Pipes 4-1 3rd


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Freud's Affair 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 H Man 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Bluegrass Express 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #6 Samay 6-1 2nd


3rd: 41st Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

This is a very good edition of Big Triple series finale. Speke SCR'D adds blinks setting up a pace pairing with NY Derby winner Sea Foam. Somebody, (Singapore Trader? Analyze the Odds? Spectacular Kid?), is going to sit a perfect trip behind those two and have first run..

Best Value: #2 Singapore Trader 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Analyze the Odds 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Evaluator 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Sea Foam 2-1 WON ($5.60)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Nondescript bunch with 4 first timers, 5 second outs (3 moving to lawn) and stretchout candidate Caralicious from Mitch Friedman..

Best Value: #1 Miss After School 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Shak's Hidden Gem 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Gypsy Mama 10-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Mensa Member 3-1 2nd


5th: 4th Funny Cide-NY, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Well matched set of 2yo boys with enough pace types involved to set up a late runner..

Most Likely: #7 La Fuerza 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Bankit 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Dalliance 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bustin to Be Loved 9-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 7 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
2: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
4: 1-2-3 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-7 (A), 2-4-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
4: 1-2-3 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-7 (A), 2-4-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Frisky Magician 5-2 8th
Best Value: #7 Discretionary Marq 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Banana Thief 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Samedi Sky Late SCR


7th: 5th Seeking the Ante-NY, 2yo-F, 6.5f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Collegeville Girl Gate SCR
Best Value: #7 She's Trouble 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Party Like Grandma 7-2 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #6 Time Warp 5-1 5th


8th: 38th Yaddo-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fifty Five 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 La Moneda 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #8 Lady Joan 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Tizzelle 12-1 5th


9th: 4th Fleet Indian-NY, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Take Charge Aubrey 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Split Time 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Rachel's Blue Moon 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Indy's Lady 8-1 4th


10th: 39th West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Offering Plan 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tapitation 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Kharafa 6-1 WON ($37.40)
Exotics Use: #2 The J Y 20-1 8th


11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #12 Brockmoninoff 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #2 Wild William 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Enchanted Forest 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Causeforcelebration 7-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

7: 4 (A), - (B), 1-6-7 (C)
8: 7 (A), 2 (B), 5-6-8 (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), 4-10 (C)
11: 2-3-5-8-9-12 (A), 4-6-7-10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x3x1x11 = $66 ($33 for .50)
All A's: 1x1x3x1x6 = $18 ($9 for .50)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 5-6-8 (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
10: 6 (A), 4-10 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
11: 2-3-5-8-9-12 (A), - (B), 4-6-7-10-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x1x6 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[knickslions2]

Question Steve. Ticket structure is everything in the pick 4 and 5 and I seem to mess that up more then anything. I'm curious since you are singling the first leg of the pick 5 why would you not include the 6 in race 5 as you have in your pick 4? cost would be the same for both bets. Just curious. Good luck

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

Friday's #Saratoga Scratches

1st - 1a-10
3rd - 4
4th - 11-12
5th - 1-3
6th - 5-10-11
7th - 5
8th - 9
10th - 3-9
11th - 1-11-13

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Question Steve. Ticket structure is everything in the pick 4 and 5 and I seem to mess that up more then anything. I'm curious since you are singling the first leg of the pick 5 why would you not include the 6 in race 5 as you have in your pick 4? cost would be the same for both bets. Just curious. Good luck

You could absolutely use the Rivelli in the P5. I added him late to the P4. Now with field down to 6, probably best to buy the race.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You could absolutely use the Rivelli in the P5. I added him late to the P4. Now with field down to 6, probably best to buy the race.

Steve - as always, thanks.

For Race 3, does Speke being scratched change your analysis? I really don’t want to see Sea Foam wire the field again...but who will press the pace?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve - as always, thanks.

For Race 3, does Speke being scratched change your analysis? I really don’t want to see Sea Foam wire the field again...but who will press the pace?

I moved Sea Foam up into tabs as a result and will trust that Johnny keeps Singapore Trader in contact. Spectacular Kid can provide some pressure potentially as well.

G/L today!