12/9 AQU Inner Opening Day Pick 6 Carryover Thoughts

[ateamstupid]

This looks very playable today and with few huge favorites in the sequence, it should pay a few thousand at least with 5-figure upside. I'm singling the horse who will likely be the shortest price of the day, #5 Interior Secretary in the 9th. Just for my anxiety, I generally don't like singling horses in the last leg, but he's the only horse in the sequence who truly looks like a stickout. Who can beat him today if he runs anything close to his good race? He has enough speed to work out a good trip as well and has been running against significantly better company. Here are some brief thoughts on the rest of the races:

4th: After the horse in the finale, my next likeliest winner in the sequence is #6 Wynhurst, who looks like lone speed dropping down for a hot Rudy Rodriguez barn. My backups are: #1 McKenzies Way, who ran better than the figures suggest in closing down a slow pace last out, and #7 Real Estate Rich, who's in good form and is dropping, but could be up against it from a pace standpoint.

5th: I have no idea why you'd take 4-5 on #3 Zen Papa in here, who won a slow race in his debut when bet for John Parisella. I understand it's a Dubb/Rudy claim, but he's gonna have to step forward significantly to win here. I like Rudy's other horse, #6 Uno Emayo at anywhere near 5-1, as his race two-back makes him the horse to beat and he was in an impossible spot last out. I'm also using #4 The Silver Sniper, who appears to have some upside and #1 My Man Al at a price. My Man Al's race two-back is stronger than it looks on paper, as several horses came out of that race to improve next time out. He's another who was in a ridiculous spot last out.

6th: This looks like a two-horse race between the big dropdowns #1 Dontbetwithbruno and #7 American Soldier, with #3 Comes the Dream a possibility going turf-to-dirt for David Jacobson (45-for-205, 22%, $2.33 ROI).

7th: With #1A Narvaez out, it really narrows the race down to #6 Visionary Ruler and #7 Songa here. The former goes out for a very dangerous shipping barn and his last dirt race makes him tough to beat. Not sure what happened to the latter at PEN, but he had no chance against a much tougher field in his last NY race.

8th: #5 North Eight Street appears to be working up a storm for Dominick Schettino and has the look of a horse who will be overbet but may be cranked to roll. #1 Majestic Bloom is very dangerous stepping up off the claim for the sharp Matthew Schera and George Weaver and #4 Bella Joy's last dirt race makes her an obvious contender. #2 Congress Park is not impossible here, I'm most interested in the top 3.

9th: See above.

I'll post my exact play as we get closer to post time and I can see how the track plays in the first three races. Good luck!

[LoneStarHorse]

Nice write up

[ateamstupid]

6/1,2,3,4,6/1,2,3,7/6,7/1,2,4,5/5
1x5x4x2x4x1 x $2 = $320

[ateamstupid]

Great ride by Angel Arroyo there getting Real Estate Rich in the game early, Irad was too passive and he proved best. Moving on.

[ateamstupid]

Exclamation point on a day of terrible opinions with Interior Secretary's no-show in the 9th. Good grief.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice looks ateam ,you have to single somewhere.