Graded Stakes and Polytrack

[repent]

was wondering the other day.
I think the graded stakes committee will have to totally reavaluate graded stakes at KEE and Holywood for their main track races.

there is no way the Toyota Blue Grass stakes can be considered a Grade 1 KY Derby prep anymore.
its the last place to prepare a 3YO for Churchill Downs on the first saturday of May.
and the Blue Grass winner was something impressive to put on a sire's resume.
now, who cares?
unless you want a polytrack horse, who really cares to breed to a Blue Grass winner.

these races really hold no importance anymore.
if I had to guess, I would think that Ball Four has to be the early favorite to win next year's Holywood Gold Cup.
he obviously likes that crappy surface they just installed.

just look at the Spinster.
was won by a really mediocre turf horse.
and thats supposed to be one of the most imortant races of the entire year in the Distaff division.
anyone have any thoughts?



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[TitanSooner]

how exactly was Sinister Minister's performance a good judge of his ability?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

was wondering the other day.
I think the graded stakes committee will have to totally reavaluate graded stakes at KEE and Holywood for their main track races.

there is no way the Toyota Blue Grass stakes can be considered a Grade 1 KY Derby prep anymore.
its the last place to prepare a 3YO for Churchill Downs on the first saturday of May.
and the Blue Grass winner was something impressive to put on a sire's resume.
now, who cares?
unless you want a polytrack horse, who really cares to breed to a Blue Grass winner.

these races really hold no importance anymore.
if I had to guess, I would think that Ball Four has to be the early favorite to win next year's Holywood Gold Cup.
he obviously likes that crappy surface they just installed.

just look at the Spinster.
was won by a really mediocre turf horse.
and thats supposed to be one of the most imortant races of the entire year in the Distaff division.
anyone have any thoughts?



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I would agree with you if they only had polytrack at one track, but now they have it at Turfway, Keeneland, Hollywood, and Woodbine. Shortly they will have it at Del Mar and Santa Anita. So if you have a horse that is a good horse on polytrack, that is significant because the horse can win big races at 6 different tracks including some of the biggest tracks in the country.

By the way, there are plenty of people that thought the old track at Keeneland was a joke. There was a big speed bias there and there were plenty of good horses that didn't like the track there. At least now if a horse wins a race at Keeneland, he can probably take that form to 5 other tracks. You could argue that Sinister Minister couldn't repeat his race at Keeneland at any other track. So you could argue that a horse's Keeneland form on polytrack is more meaningful than their form on the old Keeneland track.

[repent]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

how exactly was Sinister Minister's performance a good judge of his ability?

thats a speed horse getting a relatively easy lead on a speed favoring racetrack.
you can handicap for that.
Im not saying i cashed a ticket on SinMinister, but it was racing.

this is a totally foreign surface that can not be compared to dirt.
its closer to the surface inside the main track(turf) than the surface it replaced.

KEE has 2 turf courses now as far as I am concerned.


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[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by repent

thats a speed horse getting a relatively easy lead on a speed favoring racetrack.
you can handicap for that.
Im not saying i cashed a ticket on SinMinister, but it was racing.

this is a totally foreign surface that can not be compared to dirt.
its closer to the surface inside the main track(turf) than the surface it replaced.

KEE has 2 turf courses now as far as I am concerned.


Repent

point taken.. but just as you could handicap for a lone speed horse on a "speed favoring" racetrack, I can look for a horse that would rather sit back and come with one big run on a "closer favoring" race track.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I would agree with you if they only had polytrack at one track, but now they have it at Turfway, Keeneland, Hollywood, and Woodbine. Shortly they will have it at Del Mar and Santa Anita. So if you have a horse that is a good horse on polytrack, that is significant because the horse can win big races at 6 different tracks including some of the biggest tracks in the country.

By the way, there are plenty of people that thought the old track at Keeneland was a joke. There was a big speed bias there and there were plenty of good horses that didn't like the track there. At least now if a horse wins a race at Keeneland, he can probably take that form to 5 other tracks. You could argue that Sinister Minister couldn't repeat his race at Keeneland at any other track. So you could argue that a horse's Keeneland form on polytrack is more meaningful than their form on the old Keeneland track.

ok,
now thats a fair point.
but you have to look at the races individually.
the Blue Grass is a G1 b/c its a 750K prep for the KY Derby.
problem is, it no longer has anything in common with the KY Derby and I do not know why a trainer would prepare a horse for the KY Derby at the BG.
same for the Spinster and the BC Distaff.
or the Lanes End for the BC Juvenile.

as for the old KEE,
the speed bias had something to do with the turns at KEE and the downward sloping surface towards the finish line.
those things could have been corrected(and they were this past summer) without changing surfaces.


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[repent]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

point taken.. but just as you could handicap for a lone speed horse on a "speed favoring" racetrack, I can look for a horse that would rather sit back and come with one big run on a "closer favoring" race track.

but do you think that is what KEE is now?

I dont see the one run late closers winning a lot.
I see the one paced runners being the most successful. the ones who sit off the pace but not way out out of it.
maybe I have not studdied the charts as well as some of you.
I just know what I have seen on TVG.

I cant cap it. it just frustrates me. its like you just try to find a turf horse who is one paced,and he usually makes the most sense.

sucks, b/c I loved playing KEE and Holypark in the past.



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[blackthroatedwind]

Look, I hear what your saying, and won't argue that these polytrack Grade 1 races are not likely to be won by true Grade 1 dirt horses, whatever the hell those are anymore, but the major reason for grading of races is field quality so as long as the fields are still strong the gradings will most likely remain.

I also agree with the argument that Keeneland Grade 1s on the dirt have produced MANY past winners unqualified to be Grade 1 winners due to the absurd bias.

I just think they should paint polytrack green.

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by repent

but do you think that is what KEE is now?

I dont see the one run late closers winning a lot.
I see the one paced runners being the most successful. the ones who sit off the pace but not way out out of it.
maybe I have not studdied the charts as well as some of you.
I just know what I have seen on TVG.

I cant cap it. it just frustrates me. its like you just try to find a turf horse who is one paced,and he usually makes the most sense.

sucks, b/c I loved playing KEE and Holypark in the past.



Repent

I suppose I am being more open to the idea of polytrack than others here since I live in SoCal and the majority of my play is on SA,HOL,and DMR.. I feel that if I want to continue playing the horses, which is my favorite thing to do, I need to study these races and look for and identify trends that are going to allow me to get a jump on the other handicappers that might be just too stubborn (and maybe rightfully so) about learning it. To me, as a player, I am more concerned with cashing a ticket than the grade of a race. I can score very similarly on a 25,000 Maiden Claimer as I could on a million dollar group 1 race.

[repent]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

While I am still on the fence about Polytrack, because honestly I do think it is too early to make a defintive judgement, I do think that races like The Spinster still deserve their grading. It was definitely a grade 1 quality race with Happy Ticket, Spun Sugar, et al. Now, I will say the bias that has been so prevelant there is troublesome to me, but the old Keeneland had a pretty definitive bias as well. I also think the surface they are putting in at Hollywood is different than the poly. It is a synthetic surface, but they are all not the same, so it will be interesting to see if form on the poly transfers to the Holly Park surface, or Dickinson's Tapeta that is being installed at Golden Gate. Now, while I agree that Asi Siempre probably wouldn't have been in the Spinster had it been on anything other than Poly, and I give her no shot in the BC if she goes, she is a quality mare. Stakes type filly at the least. As far as the Blue Grass goes, why should it lose it's status? What if it draws a stellar field? I just think it's too early. The Spinster still could end up being an important race if Happy Ticket, who had a good deal of trouble in the race, or Spun Sugar, or even Asi Siempre, were to come back and win the Distaff. What if the Blue Grass winner, or a horse that ran in the Blue Grass wins the Derby. I would say it would still be an important prep. Races are graded usually by the quality of horse flesh that the race attracts, not what surface it's on. What would you have graded the Spinster?

oh,
the Spinster field certainly made it worthy of its grade 1 status.
but look at the winner.
and the top dirt horses that were off the board.
total reversal of form.

I think after a year or 2 of this, trainers will make the adjustment and determine that the Spinster(and other races) is no place to prep a really good dirt horse for a Grade 1 dirt race like the BC Distaff.
it would be like sending Sun King to the Hirsch to prepare for the BC Classic.
makes no sense.



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[Danzig]

interesting thread.
after all, turf races that are moved to dirt lose their graded status, yet the field comprises the same horses that entered for the original graded race--unless of course they are MTO.

[repent]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

I suppose I am being more open to the idea of polytrack than others here since I live in SoCal and the majority of my play is on SA,HOL,and DMR.. I feel that if I want to continue playing the horses, which is my favorite thing to do, I need to study these races and look for and identify trends that are going to allow me to get a jump on the other handicappers that might be just too stubborn (and maybe rightfully so) about learning it. To me, as a player, I am more concerned with cashing a ticket than the grade of a race. I can score very similarly on a 25,000 Maiden Claimer as I could on a million dollar group 1 race.

yeah,
so am I.
but Im not going to wager a dime on that crap from this point forward.
too much of an unknown.


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[repent]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

interesting thread.
after all, turf races that are moved to dirt lose their graded status, yet the field comprises the same horses that entered for the original graded race--unless of course they are MTO.

yeah,
good point.
they move one grade down right?
G1 to G2(rarely happens)
G2 to G3
G3 to ungraded


Repent

This is one of the most ridiculous thoughts I have ever read. You don't grade a race by what surface it is run on. You also don't grade a race based on your ability to handicap it. Also, PolyTrack is not to be compared to dirt at all. It is an alternative surface to dirt and turf racing. Basically it is a 3rd surface. Of course some horses will like it and some wont. Just like some horses love a sloppy track and some like a fast track. As far as handicapping PolyTrack there has been more winners that come from behind than horses that leads the entire way. Handicapping PolyTrack was very challenging to me. Like Oracle has pointed out several times dirt form doesnt always equate to the same form on PolyTrack. Like DaHoss has said that it is too early to make any suggestions when it comes to PolyTrack. At Turfway, tons of early speed won races in the Spring where in the Fall you didn't have too many. I like the synthetic surface and I like dirt and I like turf surface. All I can say is that the racing at Keeneland this year is by far the most exciting in terms of the finish of each race than at any other time I can remember. Almost every race you have 3-6 lead changes whereas in the past you would have a horse that wins going wire to wire or in the 2nd spot.

Again, PolyTrack is not for ever race venue and nor do I want it in every race venue. I want all 3 types of surfaces. We can have stars at every stage. The stars of dirt, the stars of turf and the stars of a synthetic surface. This is only going to be good for racing. It adds value and excitment when done right. I would be appaled to see Churchill, Gulfstream or Saratoga switch to a synthetic surface. Turfway, Woodbine and Keeneland needed it, not sure how I feel about Cali mandating it.

[repent]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This is one of the most ridiculous thoughts I have ever read. You don't grade a race by what surface it is run on. You also don't grade a race based on your ability to handicap it. Also, PolyTrack is not to be compared to dirt at all. It is an alternative surface to dirt and turf racing. Basically it is a 3rd surface. Of course some horses will like it and some wont. Just like some horses love a sloppy track and some like a fast track. As far as handicapping PolyTrack there has been more winners that come from behind than horses that leads the entire way. Handicapping PolyTrack was very challenging to me. Like Oracle has pointed out several times dirt form doesnt always equate to the same form on PolyTrack. Like DaHoss has said that it is too early to make any suggestions when it comes to PolyTrack. At Turfway, tons of early speed won races in the Fall where in the Spring you didn't have too many. I like the synthetic surface and I like dirt and I like turf surface. All I can say is that the racing at Keeneland this year is by far the most exciting in terms of the finish of each race than at any other time I can remember. Almost every race you have 3-6 lead changes whereas in the past you would have a horse that wins going wire to wire or in the 2nd spot.

Again, PolyTrack is not for ever race venue and nor do I want it in every race venue. I want all 3 types of surfaces. We can have stars at every stage. The stars of dirt, the stars of turf and the stars of a synthetic surface. This is only going to be good for racing. It adds value and excitment when done right. I would be appaled to see Churchill, Gulfstream or Saratoga switch to a synthetic surface. Turfway, Woodbine and Keeneland needed it, not sure how I feel about Cali mandating it.

you can believe that if you want.
but the reality is that it has replaced the main track at several major racetracks.
its not like they replaced the turf course or they added a 3rd course to KEE.
they took away the dirt and its always going to be aligned with dirt.

Im not saying that you change the grading of the stakes b/c they are run on polytrack.
Im saying you do have to reavaluate the status of each race on an individual basis.
when you do that, several KEE races have lost some of their importance.
when and if this diminishes the quality of the fields, then I hope they are downgraded.
I would hate to see the Blue Grass remain a Grade 1 year after year when it loses its place as a key KY Derby prep.
and it will happen.
how many top 3YOs will prep in the Blue Grass by 2008?
Im guessing none. the purse will make it an attractive spot, but Im guessing you will see mostly a field of turf horses and failed dirt horses.


Repent

When I Cap the surface I totally throw out a race where I haven't seen a horse that has a work or a race over the surface. I also look for horses that have shown good form over turf or a consistant work pattern over the surface. I also believe that certain jocks (like DaHoss said) have a good grasp on the surface. They are learning that they cannot rush to the lead. I also think some trainers have a jump on certain other trainers when running their horse on the surface. There are some patterns beginning to develop but I am not sure if they will be constant or not.

Originally Posted by repent

you can believe that if you want.
but the reality is that it has replaced the main track at several major racetracks.
its not like they replaced the turf course or they added a 3rd course to KEE.
they took away the dirt and its always going to be aligned with dirt.

Im not saying that you change the grading of the stakes b/c they are run on polytrack.
Im saying you do have to reavaluate the status of each race on an individual basis.
when you do that, several KEE races have lost some of their importance.
when and if this diminishes the quality of the fields, then I hope they are downgraded.
I would hate to see the Blue Grass remain a Grade 1 year after year when it loses its place as a key KY Derby prep.
and it will happen.
how many top 3YOs will prep in the Blue Grass by 2008?
Im guessing none. the purse will make it an attractive spot, but Im guessing you will see mostly a field of turf horses and failed dirt horses.


Repent

I see what you are saying but you cannot Grade races as preps to other Graded races. That doesn't make sense. You have to seperate the thought pattern that the Blue Grass is a Grade I only because it is considered a prep to the Derby. A race is Graded based on the field it gets. If you get the top 3 year old turf runners in the country to run in the Blue Grass should be graded less because these horses arent going to the Derby? That doesnt make sense.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by repent

you can believe that if you want.
but the reality is that it has replaced the main track at several major racetracks.
its not like they replaced the turf course or they added a 3rd course to KEE.
they took away the dirt and its always going to be aligned with dirt.

Im not saying that you change the grading of the stakes b/c they are run on polytrack.
Im saying you do have to reavaluate the status of each race on an individual basis.
when you do that, several KEE races have lost some of their importance.
when and if this diminishes the quality of the fields, then I hope they are downgraded.
I would hate to see the Blue Grass remain a Grade 1 year after year when it loses its place as a key KY Derby prep.
and it will happen.
how many top 3YOs will prep in the Blue Grass by 2008?
Im guessing none. the purse will make it an attractive spot, but Im guessing you will see mostly a field of turf horses and failed dirt horses.


Repent

if the level of horses entered drops, the grading will drop. all races are evaluated each year.
poly is a whole new ball game. it's a third surface. it's not dirt, so really how could a race keep it's grading if it's no longer the same race? guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I see what you are saying but you cannot Grade races as preps to other Graded races. That doesn't make sense. You have to seperate the thought pattern that the Blue Grass is a Grade I only because it is considered a prep to the Derby. A race is Graded based on the field it gets. If you get the top 3 year old turf runners in the country to run in the Blue Grass should be graded less because these horses arent going to the Derby? That doesnt make sense.

i don't feel it's a gr 1 because of its prep status. but it's retained it's grading due to successes achieved since the bluegrass, in the derby as well as other top races. if lesser horses start showing up while the top horses go elsewhere, it will lose it's status.

[repent]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

When I Cap the surface I totally throw out a race where I haven't seen a horse that has a work or a race over the surface. I also look for horses that have shown good form over turf or a consistant work pattern over the surface. I also believe that certain jocks (like DaHoss said) have a good grasp on the surface. They are learning that they cannot rush to the lead. I also think some trainers have a jump on certain other trainers when running their horse on the surface. There are some patterns beginning to develop but I am not sure if they will be constant or not.

well,
Im not tryng to make any point concerning the handicapping of polytrack.
evey person is free to wager or not wager on polytrack racetracks.

my only point is that I hope the committee does look at what this crap has done to the quality of the fields on an individual basis and makes the appropriate downgrades.

I think there will be breeding implications as well.


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