141st Kentucky Derby Card Analysis & Plays!

[ateamstupid]

2nd: The clear horse to beat on paper is #3 Yockey's Warrior. He crushed a ridiculously live maiden field in his debut, then took a step back next out at Keeneland, but lost to a potentially very serious horse. Add to that the seeming lack of speed signed on today AND the way the track played yesterday, he looks tough. #8 Lewys Vaporizer is the wild card shipping in for ultra-sharp Larry Rivelli and luring Castellano and he too should benefit from the dynamics and potential track tendency.

A: 3
B: 8

3rd: This looks like a really nice race to spread in, with several price opportunities and no standout favorites. #8 Big Ben and #9 Reach for a Kitten are the horses to beat off turf form, but it's not like either has run a hole in the wind in their lives. If you can get past those two, the race is brimming with possibility. #2 Thatcher Street has several races fast enough to win this and ran strongly in his turf debut, although he has had his fair share of chances. Stonestreet and Neil Howard have tried to get #3 Coyote Moon on the turf in both of his starts, but both races were rained off and both times he still ran pretty credibly He's worth using to see what he can do on his intended surface. #4 West Village is logical for the Wests and Wayne Catalano, with two solid dirt efforts and plenty of turf pedigree. #5 Gandono hasn't shown much in two starts, but he's been bet both times, is classically bred for turf and cost $360,000 as a yearling. Carroll and Geroux are strong turf connections and I have a feeling this horse is capable of more than we've seen. #7 Under the Table is worth including at a big price. His dam was a nice little turf router and both of his siblings have moved forward on grass. His off-the-turf debut wasn't bad and though I'd prefer a different rider, this horse has a shot at a huge number. Finally, #12 Sailthehighseas is very interesting as well. Midshipman's early returns are good, especially with turf and routes, and this colt has grass on the damside as well. He got bet hard in his debut and showed speed with blinkers before folding up. Loses the shades today, but still looks like he's capable of controlling this race from the jump and speed played well on the firm turf yesterday. Doubt he'll be his 15-1 M/L price, but even half that is fair value and I'll be betting him to win.

A: 8,9,12
B: 2,3,4,5,7

4th: #3 Carve is the horse to beat in here, no question. Fast and in great form. I have very few knocks on him, just think there are some others you need to cover. #6 Cat Burglar came on the scene very nicely last spring to place in the Pimlico Special and Brooklyn within three weeks, then was shelved. He looks to have major potential, as he went head-to-head with Bayern in his 4/25 drill and held his own. #11 Bradester is obviously a huge threat on his A race, but his last two races -- including a trip to Dubai -- have not been good. #1A Star Contender, if he's the half of the entry that runs, is a price play for Mark Casse getting back to dirt. His pedigree screams it, he was not good in his only try, but I'm willing to give him another shot.

A: 3,6
B: 1,11

5th: G3 PAT DAY MILE
Not much to say here. #6 Competitive Edge is clearly the most likely winner, owning a ton of talent and appearing to be the controlling speed in here. If he goes on and wins, it'll be interesting to see where Pletcher points to next. #5 Lord Nelson was so much the best in the Bay Shore it was comical, if you haven't seen it I suggest you watch. Just a monster effort. He has to be used, although the pace and track may play against him. #2 Gimme Da Lute hasn't beaten much in his three starts, but he's moved forward nicely and his last race was a legitimate big figure win. These three look head and shoulders above the rest in here.

A: 6
B: 2,5

Race 2 Pick 4
3,8/2,3,4,5,7,8,9,12/1,3,6,11/2,5,6 = $96 for every $.50
3/8,9,12/3,6/6 = $3 for every $.50
3,8/2,3,4,5,7,8,9,12/3,6/6 $16 for every $.50

7th: G1 HUMANA DISTAFF
Tough to figure why Pletcher put Sweet Whiskey in yesterday's two-turn La Troienne when she looked like lone speed at this much more appropriate distance in here. Not one of the best Humana Distaff's you'll ever see, as the older fillies and mares are just subpar this year. That makes it difficult not to just defer to #8 Judy the Beauty. It's worth noting she did run an uncharacteristic stinker in this race a year ago but she's far and away the class of the race. #3 Dame Dorothy looks interesting if nothing else for her 4/18 five-furlong breeze at Ft. Pletcher. That's an abnormally fast time for Palm Beach Downs and she bested Materiality, Blofeld and Palace Malice among others by over a second that day. Her race in the Sunshine Millions makes her competitive and she's got enough speed to stay within striking distance of a slow pace. She's the main danger for owner Bobby Flay.

A: 8
B: 3

8th: G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
The key players in here come out of the Grade 2 Honey Fox at Gulfstream on 3/28 and to me, you want #8 Sandiva out of there. She made a big, wide move that collapsed the race and was just nailed late by #4 Lady Lara, who got a tremendous ride by Junior Alvarado. Sandiva is more versatile than that one and she appears to just be getting better for Pletcher. That was a poor effort from #5 Coffee Clique, but the defending champion of this race and Grade 1 winner has to be respected second off the layoff. #3 Tepin is interesting at a price. Her last effort was a big step forward, running a race that doesn't put her far off these, which came off a 217-day layoff. She's been lighting the track on the fire in the mornings and figures to pull a good trip, saving ground in the second flight. British import #11 Water Hole also has to be respected for Chad Brown.

A: 5,8
B: 3,11

9th: G2 CHURCHILL DOWNS
Very interesting Churchill Downs Stakes with the return of #2 Bayern and the presence of classy and game #4 Private Zone. Those two tower over the rest on paper, but the pace in this race figures to be SCORCHING, which leads me to #1 C. Zee at a big price under Irad. With all due respect to Edgard Zayas, that's a positive rider switch, and he could find himself picking up the pieces late if a meltdown ensues. On that token, it's worth using #5 Pants on Fire as well. This is gonna be far from a cakewalk for Bayern, drawn inside all of the other speed, and as much as I respect him, I think this is a good day to play against him.

A: 2,4
B: 1,5

10th: G1 TURF CLASSIC
Terrific, deep field, but I think #7 Jack Milton and #8 Stephanie's Kitten are just a notch above the rest. The former got his overdue Grade 1 win in the Maker's 46 Mile and the latter, who Chad feels good enough about to enter her against the boys today, is just hickory. Remember when people thought she was toast? I respect #9 Seek Again, the tough luck runner-up against Wise Dan in last year's renewal. Mott is among the best in the business when he really points to a race like this one. He'll have to have him fully cranked to beat this field. I am very fond of #12 Grand Arch, but I think he's better going a mile and even though there's a long run into the turn, the 12-hole is not ideal.

A: 7,8
B: 9

11th: KENTUCKY DERBY 141
What a great field. It's been so encouraging to see so many quality 3-year-olds burst onto the scene and stay there. I'm a relatively young guy, but this is the best Derby lineup I've ever seen. Safe trips to all, and savor this moment when the world gets to see the very best this game has to offer.

#1 OCHO OCHO OCHO (Cassidy/Trujillo)
What the hell, dude? What is this horse doing in this race? He's the favorite to finish last and his talent is being wasted with this spot.

#2 CARPE DIEM (Pletcher/Velazquez)
Much prefer Materiality of the two Pletchers for reasons I've laid out before. Carpe Diem has yet to run fast enough to win and is unlikely to jump up with a lousy post.

#3 MATERIALITY (Pletcher/Castellano)
Understand why Velazquez went with the more proven Carpe Diem, but this horse is Pletcher's best chance to me. The draw isn't great for him either, but that was a monster effort in the Florida Derby and he just has way more upside. There's a decent chance he's just not ready for this kind of test this early in his career, but he has to be used off of his potential.

#4 TENCENDUR (Weaver/Franco)
That was a legitimately big performance in the Wood, a clear second at 21-1 doing a lot of dirty work. I'd love to see these connections get it done, but I just can't picture him beating this field at this distance.

#5 DANZIG MOON (Casse/Leparoux)
Has the right type of versatile style for this race and I thought he ran pretty well in the Blue Grass considering how wide he was all the way around. He's the one I want out of that race. Needs to move forward again but worth including at a good price.

#6 MUBTAAHIJ (de Kock/Soumillon)
Showed a nice turn of foot when asked in the UAE Derby, but he wasn't beating anything and got an absolutely perfect trip. Not going to completely discount him like I usually do Dubai shippers, but I can't take him on top.

#7 EL KABEIR -- SCRATCHED

#8 DORTMUND (Baffert/Garcia)
The most physically impressive of any Derby horse. Hard to knock a 6-for-6 record and he's done it in multiple ways. Flew home in his 4/25 drill and Baffert camp has been sky high on him from day one.

#9 BOLO (Gaines/Bejarano)
Dusted by Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby and no real reason to think he can reverse that margin.

#10 FIRING LINE (Callaghan/Stevens)
Gave Dortmund everything he could handle twice and was just denied both times. Got the easy money at Sunland and should be sitting on his best yet effort. Stevens in the irons doesn't hurt.

#11 STANFORD -- SCRATCHED

#12 INTERNATIONAL STAR (Maker/Mena)
Too slow to win, but has the consistent closing kick to pick off a lot of tired horses in the stretch. Underneath use.

#13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (Pletcher/Saez)
Too slow, doesn't appear to want to go this far and figures to be overbet with Mayweather/Pacquiao tie-in.

#14 KEEN ICE (Romans/Desormeaux)
Another interesting price play underneath who is too slow to win.

#15 FROSTED (McLaughlin/Rosario)
Exploded in his return to NY and that's been a familiar theme with this barn's horses. I have to see him bring that Aqueduct form to Kentucky.

#16 WAR STORY (Amoss/Talamo)
Too slow.

#17 MR. Z (Lukas/Vazquez)
Too slow.

#18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (Baffert/Espinoza)
The hype is in overdrive on this horse off a visually impressive Arkansas Derby with a perfect trip against very suspect competition. He obviously has a lot of ability, but he's got to be able to allow all the speed to his inside go and I'm not sure he's proven he can do that yet. He may just be too good, but the way some people are framing this race as an American Pharoah coronation is bizarre.

#19 UPSTART (Violette/Oritz)
This is my horse and has been since his extremely impressive win in the Holy Bull in his 3-year-old debut. He took a step back for whatever reason in the Fountain of Youth, but returned with a vengeance with a huge second in the Florida Derby. He's the fastest horse on Thoro-Graph, with four negative numbers (the rest of the field has five combined). His post isn't ideal and Jose Ortiz's inexperience is a concern, but given the right first-run trip, I think he's the horse to beat and at around 15-1, he's my big win bet of the day.

#20 FAR RIGHT (Moquett/Smith)
Too slow and will be overbet because of Mikey.

#21 FRAMMENTO (Nakatani/Zito)
Another trifecta/super add at a big price.

A: 8,18,19
B: 3,5,10

Race 7 Pick 5
3,8/3,5,8,11/1,2,4,5/7,8,9/3,5,8,10,18,19 $288
8/5,8/2,4/7,8/8,18,19 $12

Good luck everybody!

[RHT2004]

Nice write up and good luck today Joe.

[casp0555]

Thanks for the write up Joey and good luck today!!

[knickslions2]

Good stuff Ateam. Gl